January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[dallen7908]

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/6/bamsD190014.xml

ok, only tangentially related,  but if you're in the mood to read about some real cold - and Laura Ingalls Wilder - check out the link. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Surprisingly, when the AI starts precip in the area, this is the 850 map. The 0 line is pretty far north and then creeps north from here 0z 1/23. It's tough to tell, but basically just north of SBY westward near the MD/VA border. So that tells me there's no cold pushing down so northward progress of the storm in future runs would seem a better than 50-50 bet imho.

Here's a link:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501141800&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501230600

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Big 3 ensembles show the SER firmly in charge at the end of their runs.  Hopefully they are hallucinating a canonical nina response.

They do but they also still show signs of the pac jet undercutting in the central pacific and now signs of the AO going negative again. It wouldn’t take much adjustment to shift cold back into the east. Even the look they show wouldn’t be hopeless as trailing waves would have potential with cold close by. 

[mitchnick]

34 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

new AIFS goes up the coast more compared to last run where it was suppressed

Close up 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Here's a link:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501141800&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501230600

I wouldn’t take AI too seriously when it comes to thermals. While they do pretty well at upper level verification, they actually do poorly with temps.

[Heisy]

Woof




.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Close up 

That precip distribution with torching 850s doesn’t seem to make sense if we are talking about next weeks storm. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I wouldn’t take AI too seriously when it comes to thermals. While they do pretty well at upper level verification, they actually do poorly with temps.

When you leave your current employer, let me know beforehand as I'll need you to get me some docs there!

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Woof




.

If it ends up a Lakes cutter, you'll be seeing this post again...trust me! Lol

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

When you leave your current employer, let me know beforehand as I'll need you to get me some docs there!

Haha don’t hold your breath

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/6/bamsD190014.xml

ok, only tangentially related,  but if you're in the mood to read about some real cold - and Laura Ingalls Wilder - check out the link. 

Thats funny, Ive been reading that book this winter. Yeah, I know it's for young readers but at a few hundred pages and stories of blizzards, it's an enjoyable read on those cold nights. Also won a couple awards iirc.

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They do but they also still show signs of the pac jet undercutting in the central pacific and now signs of the AO going negative again. It wouldn’t take much adjustment to shift cold back into the east. Even the look they show wouldn’t be hopeless as trailing waves would have potential with cold close by. 

CFS has us not too brutally cold and not warm either thus has us right on the edge for many systems between now and PD...fwiw. So yeah, a little push back on the SER tendencies and it really wont take much. I think we are in a fine spot tbh with no signs of pac puke, no linkup  between nao and said ser, and that Mongolian air readily available with near constant ridging in the epo region.

[Ralph Wiggum]

18 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Woof




.

Is that southern vort the same 'hurricane' tightly wound vort the gfs had off the s cali coast?

[MDScienceTeacher]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is that southern vort the same 'hurricane' tightly wound vort the gfs had off the s cali coast?

It made landfall!!??

[Ji]

Is that southern vort the same 'hurricane' tightly wound vort the gfs had off the s cali coast?

I don’t think so

[winter_warlock]

31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is that southern vort the same 'hurricane' tightly wound vort the gfs had off the s cali coast?

 Nope!

[winter_warlock]

39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Thats funny, Ive been reading that book this winter. Yeah, I know it's for young readers but at a few hundred pages and stories of blizzards, it's an enjoyable read on those cold nights. Also won a couple awards iirc.

The best book I read  years ago was a book. By Paul Kocin. About winter storms!! Fantastic read!!

[winter_warlock]

37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CFS has us not too brutally cold and not warm either thus has us right on the edge for many systems between now and PD...fwiw. So yeah, a little push back on the SER tendencies and it really wont take much. I think we are in a fine spot tbh with no signs of pac puke, no linkup  between nao and said ser, and that Mongolian air readily available with near constant ridging in the epo region.

I'd rather just be cold enough for snow instead of brutal cold... alot of time the brutal cold deep troughs in east tend to suppress storms.. in my opinion 

[LongRanger]

Long term temperature normals are a smoothed average. If you remove the smoothing, that is, examine the actual daily averages for the past 50 years in the NE Corridor, you'll find the there are two separate annual min temps, one centered around Jan 20 and another Feb 5. In between those dates is a slight warm up, sometimes called the January thaw. This year might follow that pattern.

[Solution Man]

Icon looks good @114

[SnowenOutThere]

ICON looks good for the Sunday deal

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

ICON looks good for the Sunday deal

1002 slp vs 1008 at 18z

[mitchnick]

3-5+"

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

3-5+"

We take 

[NorthArlington101]

pre-Kuchera-ing

[mitchnick]

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

That's a decent hit!!!  Hoping GFS comes around to that!!

[wxlvr]

Bonus snow in Stafford! Where did this come from???


.

[winter_warlock]

Icon  looked good for a moderate event ... but. It's the Icon.. im mildly optimistic  lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

49 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

The best book I read  years ago was a book. By Paul Kocin. About winter storms!! Fantastic read!!

Have both of those as well. The bibles of NE US Winter Storms.