Shad Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 yea GFS looks alot different at the surface compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Honestly laughable differences on the GFS from 6 hours ago. We need to put another upgrade on the table for this thing. NCEP really should consolidate to a HiRes model/HREF type output that goes to 180 hours and eliminate NAM, SREF, etc. A short range hi-res and that and be done with it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 If it can't get Sunday right, surprised if it looks any better for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The GFS is so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:18 PM, mitchnick said: If it can't get Sunday right, surprised if it looks any better for next week. Expand Dude it’s the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:11 PM, stormtracker said: GFS kinda decent for the 20th. Near miss, but better than expected Expand Much better upstairs, and reflected at the surface. re Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:18 PM, DDweatherman said: Honestly laughable differences on the GFS from 6 hours ago. We need to put another upgrade on the table for this thing. NCEP really should consolidate to a HiRes model/HREF type output that goes to 180 hours and eliminate NAM, SREF, etc. A short range hi-res and that and be done with it. Expand Model is performing miserably in verification scores. It needs help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:19 PM, TSSN+ said: Model is performing miserably in verification scores. It needs help Expand And I know just how to fix it. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:21 PM, mitchnick said: And I know just how to fix it. Expand No, bring on the Sledge! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:19 PM, TSSN+ said: Model is performing miserably in verification scores. It needs help Expand AIFS is smoking the GFS in the 6-15 day verification scores Edit - even blows GFS out of the water in 1-5 day scores, wow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:14 PM, Terpeast said: GFS might suppress this one, but might be overdoing the cold/PV again like it did last time. Expand That 1050+mb high it keeps showing would challenge records for the highest barometric pressure in the Central Plains. Hopefully that’s an indication it’s overdone. January 7, 2015 set the previous records in these cities: Grand Island, Nebraska (1056.9 millibars) Lincoln, Nebraska (1055.9 millibars) Omaha, Nebraska (1055.3 millibars) Concordia, Kansas (1055.1 millibars) Topeka, Kansas (1054.3 millibars) Des Moines, Iowa (1052.15 millibars) North Little Rock, Arkansas (1045.07 millibars) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:23 PM, Terpeast said: AIFS is smoking the GFS in the 6-15 day verification scores Expand Do you have that graphic? Didn't realize they were running Euro AI verification #'s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:23 PM, Terpeast said: AIFS is smoking the GFS in the 6-15 day verification scores Edit - even blows GFS out of the water in 1-5 day scores, wow Expand Is ncep concerned that they’ve fallen even further behind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:25 PM, DDweatherman said: Do you have that graphic? Didn't realize they were running Euro AI verification #'s. Expand I do, but its through my job. We compare AI models with all other NWP models in the 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 day ranges. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Broad Trof on the GFS during the Euro BOOM scenario. Too broad tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS is trying to suppress the storm south of Jebman 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:28 PM, Terpeast said: I do, but its through my job. We compare AI models with all other NWP models in the 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 day ranges. Expand That's awesome. Wish we could see but great to perform that service to assist the general public. You'd think the AI "models" would only get better over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:28 PM, psuhoffman said: Is ncep concerned that they’ve fallen even further behind? Expand I can only speculate. They might be worried behind closed doors, but also constrained in what they can do. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:28 PM, psuhoffman said: Is ncep concerned that they’ve fallen even further behind? Maybe they don’t care since NOAA might not exist soon. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:19 PM, CAPE said: Much better upstairs, and reflected at the surface. re Expand That is one tight wound up low off the Southern California coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS is honestly not that far off for the second threat. Ends up climbing the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:29 PM, Kevin Reilly said: That is one tight wound up low off the Southern California coast. Expand Probably an erroneous thing. Might be gone next run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:24 PM, WVclimo said: That 1050+mb high it keeps showing would challenge records for the highest barometric pressure in the Central Plains. Hopefully that’s an indication it’s overdone. January 7, 2015 set the previous records in these cities: Grand Island, Nebraska (1056.9 millibars) Lincoln, Nebraska (1055.9 millibars) Omaha, Nebraska (1055.3 millibars) Concordia, Kansas (1055.1 millibars) Topeka, Kansas (1054.3 millibars) Des Moines, Iowa (1052.15 millibars) North Little Rock, Arkansas (1045.07 millibars) Expand What happened in the following 3 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Gfs goes and nails ENE after missing us. Some things on models never change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:54 PM, mitchnick said: Gfs goes and nails ENE after missing us. Some things on models never change. Expand Got it right where we want it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 10:21 PM, Ephesians2 said: Lock it in Expand Bamwx has their own weather app? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 9:38 PM, southmdwatcher said: That is exactly what happened in Charles County during PD1(79). That storm is also in the upper strata of Mid Atlantic surprise storms, along with January 25, 2000. Expand 1970s...might as well have been the pleistocene. PDO was probably a couple SDs positive in those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z EURO for Sunday - maybe a tick better for the metros. Pretty consistent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 11:26 PM, NorthArlington101 said: 18z EURO for Sunday - maybe a tick better for the metros. Pretty consistent. Expand Def drier and more se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts