TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Terpeast said: Just fringed us, but this wasn't there since 12z yesterday. Very close miss. Won't take much to shift it to a 2-4/3-6" hit Slowly coming back to the original idea and now the ukmet and euro solutions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Terpeast said: Just fringed us, but this wasn't there since 12z yesterday. Very close miss. Won't take much to shift it to a 2-4/3-6" hit It'll figure it out and look like the other models, but not until it plays dumb for a bit. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS roulette. Vastly different out west vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 And here comes another s/w. Four corners at hr 150 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Gfs is pretty much for entertainment only anymore. Euro/ukemt combo is the way to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Shortwave digging There is a hurricane off the coast of California? 1 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS might suppress this one, but might be overdoing the cold/PV again like it did last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 yea GFS looks alot different at the surface compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Honestly laughable differences on the GFS from 6 hours ago. We need to put another upgrade on the table for this thing. NCEP really should consolidate to a HiRes model/HREF type output that goes to 180 hours and eliminate NAM, SREF, etc. A short range hi-res and that and be done with it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 If it can't get Sunday right, surprised if it looks any better for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The GFS is so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, mitchnick said: If it can't get Sunday right, surprised if it looks any better for next week. Dude it’s the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS kinda decent for the 20th. Near miss, but better than expected Much better upstairs, and reflected at the surface. re Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, DDweatherman said: Honestly laughable differences on the GFS from 6 hours ago. We need to put another upgrade on the table for this thing. NCEP really should consolidate to a HiRes model/HREF type output that goes to 180 hours and eliminate NAM, SREF, etc. A short range hi-res and that and be done with it. Model is performing miserably in verification scores. It needs help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Model is performing miserably in verification scores. It needs help And I know just how to fix it. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And I know just how to fix it. No, bring on the Sledge! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Model is performing miserably in verification scores. It needs help AIFS is smoking the GFS in the 6-15 day verification scores Edit - even blows GFS out of the water in 1-5 day scores, wow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: GFS might suppress this one, but might be overdoing the cold/PV again like it did last time. That 1050+mb high it keeps showing would challenge records for the highest barometric pressure in the Central Plains. Hopefully that’s an indication it’s overdone. January 7, 2015 set the previous records in these cities: Grand Island, Nebraska (1056.9 millibars) Lincoln, Nebraska (1055.9 millibars) Omaha, Nebraska (1055.3 millibars) Concordia, Kansas (1055.1 millibars) Topeka, Kansas (1054.3 millibars) Des Moines, Iowa (1052.15 millibars) North Little Rock, Arkansas (1045.07 millibars) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: AIFS is smoking the GFS in the 6-15 day verification scores Do you have that graphic? Didn't realize they were running Euro AI verification #'s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: AIFS is smoking the GFS in the 6-15 day verification scores Edit - even blows GFS out of the water in 1-5 day scores, wow Is ncep concerned that they’ve fallen even further behind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, DDweatherman said: Do you have that graphic? Didn't realize they were running Euro AI verification #'s. I do, but its through my job. We compare AI models with all other NWP models in the 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 day ranges. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Broad Trof on the GFS during the Euro BOOM scenario. Too broad tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS is trying to suppress the storm south of Jebman 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Terpeast said: I do, but its through my job. We compare AI models with all other NWP models in the 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 day ranges. That's awesome. Wish we could see but great to perform that service to assist the general public. You'd think the AI "models" would only get better over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, psuhoffman said: Is ncep concerned that they’ve fallen even further behind? I can only speculate. They might be worried behind closed doors, but also constrained in what they can do. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Is ncep concerned that they’ve fallen even further behind? Maybe they don’t care since NOAA might not exist soon. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Much better upstairs, and reflected at the surface. re That is one tight wound up low off the Southern California coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS is honestly not that far off for the second threat. Ends up climbing the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: That is one tight wound up low off the Southern California coast. Probably an erroneous thing. Might be gone next run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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