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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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I said this is a good snow pattern :)

We should get some snow out of this. Whether it’s “FOLKS” worthy or not is up to some timing/phasing luck and positioning of the thermal gradient in the right spot. GFS was pretty damn close as @psuhoffmanmentioned. ECMWF was on the money. Should be a fun 7-10 days of tracking once again. Winter is still rolling along. We still have February to go too. 

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54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

BTW, the euro doesn't fully phase, it splits the energy and still pulls that off, that was not even the max solutions...it left a little meat on the bone believe it or not.  

BUT looking further out...look what the op euro just did in the long range also...its starting to show up on more and more guidance.  There is a LOT of uncertainty where we are heading after next week.  

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-8044000.thumb.png.95b24420bec34f7bba00653293f5cb40.png

I’ve been waiting for the Euro to bring back the promised blizzard for next week. Hopefully we can hold it. 

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1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Damn it Euro! Thanks. FOLKS for everyone. FUCKS for me!  Stupid Caribbean cruise. :lol: 
 

 

ETA: The 28th? I’m in for that!. Pardon my French above. 

Supposed to leave for my cruise on the 31st! Dulles got to do some work ...

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15 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

PD2 had a period of snow after the initial part where it was dumping and about 13-15 degrees if I remember right?

Almost the entire storm was in the teens. Low teens for a long time. That huge High settled Saturday afternoon after the initial burst of snow pushed south. Temps dropped the entire day. By the time the heavy snow started in the very early a.m. of Sunday temps were in the teens then fell several more degrees. Some northern areas got down to 9 or 10 I believe.

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1 hour ago, Shad said:

low 20s and sleet.....that would be painful!

 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro shows sleet in the northern neck 

Someone always taints. Busy day today. But the Euro looks amazing. I would be happy just with the light event on Sunday with the fireplace rolling and divisional playoff games on the tube. Solid winter imo. 

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12 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Almost the entire storm was in the teens. Low teens for a long time. That huge High settled Saturday afternoon after the initial burst of snow pushed south. Temps dropped the entire day. By the time the heavy snow started in the very early a.m. of Sunday temps were in the teens then fell several more degrees. Some northern areas got down to 9 or 10 I believe.

Yep!  We had very heavy snow with a foot on the ground at 11 degrees.  In PD1 in Calvert, the first few inches fell with temps in single digits and was still in low teens as the blizzard got cranking.    

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6 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Yep!  We had very heavy snow with a foot on the ground at 11 degrees.  In PD1 in Calvert, the first few inches fell with temps in single digits and was still in low teens as the blizzard got cranking.    

If memory serves, BWI bottomed out at 5 degrees on the Sunday morning PD1 hit. Great memory there.

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18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nbd at this point, but EuroAI pushes 24th off the coast to our south. Sunday still on course. Looks wetter too. Having trouble pulling up Sunday temps so I  can't comment on them yet.

Has anyone been tracking the EURO AI performance versus the regular model? 

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Nbd at this point, but EuroAI pushes 24th off the coast to our south. Sunday still on course. Looks wetter too. Having trouble pulling up Sunday temps so I  can't comment on them yet.

That’s the 12z euro AI? Does it give us any precip from the second event?


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The control and 3 or 4 other members  also show a MECS around the 23rd - so it's not just resolution driving the large snow amounts.   
image.thumb.png.e064bbb7b675cf748ef38fac0911d7ef.png

I’m late to the party today but I definitely am happy to see the northern stream dive in on that 12z euro run.


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5 minutes ago, Heisy said:


That’s the 12z euro AI? Does it give us any precip from the second event?


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No. The 24th event I mentioned was the big one. But I doubt that it would be quick to jump on board due to discrete change(s) making such a big difference. 

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42 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Yep!  We had very heavy snow with a foot on the ground at 11 degrees.  In PD1 in Calvert, the first few inches fell with temps in single digits and was still in low teens as the blizzard got cranking.    

That happened way before I lived here...I don't believe it. #FakeNews 

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