January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[IronTy]

14 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Talk about cold smoke. 12 while snowing 

 

That gives me pause, I'll believe 17F and heavy snow in SoMD when I see it.  

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Matt?

Zwyts aka Deck Pic 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Matt?

ZWYTS, Deck Pic 

[Shad]

Euro says mixing into central VA.......wasnt expecting that!   i have a feeling this ones going to be all over the place the next 3-4 runs

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Shad said:

Euro says mixing into central VA.......wasnt expecting that!   i have a feeling this ones going to be all over the place the next 3-4 runs

3-4 runs? Try 3-4 days or more, lol

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

ZWYTS, Deck Pic 

Westminster Deathband as well unless I’m confusing him with someone else? 

[Terpeast]

Like I said… Euro’s bazooka.

[Shad]

low 20s and sleet.....that would be painful!

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Shad said:

Euro says mixing into central VA.......wasnt expecting that!   i have a feeling this ones going to be all over the place the next 3-4 runs

lol...we're celebrating now because we know it's not gonna hold.

[psuhoffman]

The euro shows sleet in the northern neck 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro shows sleet in the northern neck 

That’s nice, probably show smokin cirrus next run, why we talking where it shows sleet 200+hrs out lol 

[mitchnick]

Any support on Eps?

[mappy]

lol this past weekends event was also a big dog 9 days before and well… 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

That’s nice, probably show smokin cirrus next run, why we talking where it shows sleet 200+hrs out lol 

I just need to make sure everyone knows it shows sleet in central VA just in case they missed it 

[WeatherQ]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

BOOM 

Didn’t you call that just before the 12Z suite. Banging clairvoyance 

[Kevin Reilly]

45 minutes ago, frd said:

There were many comments about five days ago that centered on the complexity of the pattern between Jan 21 st and early Feb. 

Things will not be decided until later. I mentioned analogs, but they mean nothing really in the grand scheme of things presently. 

Also, plenty of jet energy and a ton of baroclinic zone contrast next week. 

 

 

This:  “Also, plenty of jet energy and a ton of baroclinic zone contrasts next week. >>> This is how we get our stronger dynamic fun storms that are sometimes written about in past history! 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I just need to make sure everyone knows it shows sleet in central VA just in case they missed it 

EZF is fine... you have to down toward Short Pump for that 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Any support on Eps?

definitely a phase-y kinda look here

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

lol this past weekends event was also a big dog 9 days before and well… 

You're point and caution are correct, but I think this setup has more of a chance then that ever did.  That required a more complicated phase to pull off and it was never really on anything except the GFS, wasn't even all that close on any other guidance.  The "foundation" for this storm is there across guidance.  But it's still not the most likely outcome at this range...but I think its more likely then that last one was.  

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Any support on Eps?

Only out to 138 on what I see - little better for the weekend stuff (both wave 1 & wave 2) but nothing to write home about.

[wxdude64]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I just need to make sure everyone knows it shows sleet in central VA just in case they missed it 

I know it messes with deep snow totals, but sleet has MASSIVE 'staying power' after it is on the ground. It is a bitch to shovel and plow though.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Only out to 138 on what I see - little better for the weekend stuff (both wave 1 & wave 2) but nothing to write home about.

3-day mean for the weekend period - like a tick better (.2") - basically noise.

[blizzardmeiser]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You're point and caution are correct, but I think this setup has more of a chance then that ever did.  That required a more complicated phase to pull off and it was never really on anything except the GFS, wasn't even all that close on any other guidance.  The "foundation" for this storm is there across guidance.  But it's still not the most likely outcome at this range...but I think its more likely then that last one was.  

What is the most likely outcome this far out?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GFS was SUPER close to this solution too...when I looked at the H5 I was like...hmmm this was a hair away from a big snowstorm so I am not totally shocked something spit out this solution.  

Would that be an ass-hair away, to use Randy's parlance?

[Deck Pic]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Matt expected this last night...he was just one run too soon on his call.  

Heh I thought and maybe still think a bigger event on Sunday. I wasn’t really looking ahead. But yay. We needed a good cyber K/U.  Spirits were down 

[Ji]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ZWYTS, Deck Pic 

wasnt he like westiminster death band too?

[TSSN+]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Any support on Eps?

Some 

 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

EZF is fine... you have to down toward Short Pump for that 

No, I think the Northern Neck is going to get so much sleet... I would hate to live there 

[TSSN+]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Some 

 

Compared to 0z

 

[mitchnick]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Some 

 

Yep. That's better. Keep coming to Papa.