Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Like I said… Euro’s bazooka. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 low 20s and sleet.....that would be painful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:05 PM, Shad said: Euro says mixing into central VA.......wasnt expecting that! i have a feeling this ones going to be all over the place the next 3-4 runs Expand lol...we're celebrating now because we know it's not gonna hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The euro shows sleet in the northern neck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:08 PM, psuhoffman said: The euro shows sleet in the northern neck Expand That’s nice, probably show smokin cirrus next run, why we talking where it shows sleet 200+hrs out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Any support on Eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 lol this past weekends event was also a big dog 9 days before and well… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:10 PM, TSSN+ said: That’s nice, probably show smokin cirrus next run, why we talking where it shows sleet 200+hrs out lol Expand I just need to make sure everyone knows it shows sleet in central VA just in case they missed it 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 5:41 PM, psuhoffman said: BOOM Expand Didn’t you call that just before the 12Z suite. Banging clairvoyance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 5:24 PM, frd said: There were many comments about five days ago that centered on the complexity of the pattern between Jan 21 st and early Feb. Things will not be decided until later. I mentioned analogs, but they mean nothing really in the grand scheme of things presently. Also, plenty of jet energy and a ton of baroclinic zone contrast next week. Expand This: “Also, plenty of jet energy and a ton of baroclinic zone contrasts next week. >>> This is how we get our stronger dynamic fun storms that are sometimes written about in past history! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:11 PM, psuhoffman said: I just need to make sure everyone knows it shows sleet in central VA just in case they missed it Expand EZF is fine... you have to down toward Short Pump for that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:10 PM, mitchnick said: Any support on Eps? Expand definitely a phase-y kinda look here 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:11 PM, mappy said: lol this past weekends event was also a big dog 9 days before and well… Expand You're point and caution are correct, but I think this setup has more of a chance then that ever did. That required a more complicated phase to pull off and it was never really on anything except the GFS, wasn't even all that close on any other guidance. The "foundation" for this storm is there across guidance. But it's still not the most likely outcome at this range...but I think its more likely then that last one was. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:10 PM, mitchnick said: Any support on Eps? Expand Only out to 138 on what I see - little better for the weekend stuff (both wave 1 & wave 2) but nothing to write home about. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:11 PM, psuhoffman said: I just need to make sure everyone knows it shows sleet in central VA just in case they missed it Expand I know it messes with deep snow totals, but sleet has MASSIVE 'staying power' after it is on the ground. It is a bitch to shovel and plow though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:14 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Only out to 138 on what I see - little better for the weekend stuff (both wave 1 & wave 2) but nothing to write home about. Expand 3-day mean for the weekend period - like a tick better (.2") - basically noise. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:14 PM, psuhoffman said: You're point and caution are correct, but I think this setup has more of a chance then that ever did. That required a more complicated phase to pull off and it was never really on anything except the GFS, wasn't even all that close on any other guidance. The "foundation" for this storm is there across guidance. But it's still not the most likely outcome at this range...but I think its more likely then that last one was. Expand What is the most likely outcome this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 5:42 PM, psuhoffman said: GFS was SUPER close to this solution too...when I looked at the H5 I was like...hmmm this was a hair away from a big snowstorm so I am not totally shocked something spit out this solution. Expand Would that be an ass-hair away, to use Randy's parlance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:04 PM, psuhoffman said: ZWYTS, Deck Pic Expand wasnt he like westiminster death band too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:10 PM, mitchnick said: Any support on Eps? Expand Some 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:13 PM, yoda said: EZF is fine... you have to down toward Short Pump for that Expand No, I think the Northern Neck is going to get so much sleet... I would hate to live there 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:21 PM, TSSN+ said: Some Expand Compared to 0z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:21 PM, TSSN+ said: Some Expand Yep. That's better. Keep coming to Papa. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 5:30 PM, Ji said: starting to worry(thanks to Mitchnik)...that year is 13-14 without the snow Expand My thought is even if it turns out bitter cold but dry (which I don't think happens), when things eventually relax someone cashes in big-time. Probably NE as always but if things are displaced way South with the PV and cold push, we can dream and assume the payback event(s) are ticketed for our subs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:21 PM, TSSN+ said: Some Expand That is a HUGE jump from 0z 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:26 PM, psuhoffman said: That is a HUGE jump from 0z Expand Yep, double the amount, very significant run to run output. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:26 PM, psuhoffman said: That is a HUGE jump from 0z Expand it is man.....lets go 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:02 PM, IronTy said: That gives me pause, I'll believe 17F and heavy snow in SoMD when I see it. Expand There is your temp contrast holy smokes!!! Talk about dynamite available. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 5:56 PM, psuhoffman said: And the euro had those exact adjustments... that NS SW is digging down into the Dakotas and it has a bit more SER and BOOM Expand Looks the the Scandy ridge also works to nudge our developing NAO which in turn help (in tandem with the PNA/EPO ridge) to drive the s/w souther and into the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 6:17 PM, blizzardmeiser said: What is the most likely outcome this far out? Expand Sunny and 35 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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