mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:24 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Have you noticed there is a minority but not insignificant camp of guidance that now tanks the AO/NAO again around day 10! Frankly, I'm not sure what to hope for after the cold/dry stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Tuesday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:24 PM 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Couple random things I've noticed... First of all...do you know how close this is to a monster storm? Dig that SW near the Minn Canada border a little more, slightly more SER and....BOOM Then...this is not the majority solution across guidance yet, but this has been showing up on quote a few runs, even the op euro a couple times, enough so that we shouldn't just assume we are headed where the consensus has been indicating... Regardless...across all guidance the pacific jet continues to undercut the ridging in the pacific, and so long as that continues cold we be directed more east than in recent years. There were many comments about five days ago that centered on the complexity of the pattern between Jan 21 st and early Feb. Things will not be decided until later. I mentioned analogs, but they mean nothing really in the grand scheme of things presently. Also, plenty of jet energy and a ton of baroclinic zone contrast next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:28 PM 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Frankly, I'm not sure what to hope for after the cold/dry stretch. I would take my chances on a -EPO/AO/NAO in February! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Tuesday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:30 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I would take my chances on a -EPO/AO/NAO in February! starting to worry(thanks to Mitchnik)...that year is 13-14 without the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Tuesday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:31 PM CFS: wall-to-wall cold through President’s Day https://x.com/chazzzwx/status/1879199881199489370 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Tuesday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:33 PM 22 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Is JB calling for a major flip? He usually loves what the MJO shows him. He was saying that if the JMA is correct that we were going into the warm phases around the end of January and thought it would linger there for some time in February. Not sure he predicted it was for sure going to happen but moreso *if* the JMA is correct. He does seem to put a lot of stock in the JMA when it comes to MJO predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:35 PM 4 minutes ago, Ji said: starting to worry(thanks to Mitchnik)...that year is 13-14 without the snow Who me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:37 PM 5 minutes ago, Ji said: starting to worry(thanks to Mitchnik)...that year is 13-14 without the snow I've said for years 2014 was a LOT of luck and that pattern is unlikely to produce that degree of positive snowfall anomaly if repeated. But I think if we continue long enough we are likely to continue to get enough snow to end up in a decent place. We have had 2 snows already since the truly cold pattern set in around Jan 5 and it's not like there are no threats at all showing up, just maybe not the MECS/HECS level ones people wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Tuesday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:38 PM Euro hold 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:38 PM Euro looks decent to me 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Tuesday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:39 PM Just now, psuhoffman said: Euro looks decent to me For us for sure 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:39 PM Just now, psuhoffman said: Euro looks decent to me Another 1-2... more N and W 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:39 PM 4 hours ago, mitchnick said: SE ridge looks inevitable, but doesn't necessarily have to mean no snow. I actually am pretty optimistic that something breaks in our favor in January when the cold is around or February with the likelihood of being at or AN precip. Going to need really bad luck to miss everything substantial imho. 9 minutes ago, Ji said: starting to worry(thanks to Mitchnik)...that year is 13-14 without the snow Ummm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:40 PM EURO!!!!!! 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Tuesday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:40 PM Folks 5 2 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:40 PM Oh hi Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM Oh shit 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM Just now, yoda said: Another 1-2... more N and W It has more "snow" into 95 than those maps indicate, but surface temps must be keeping accumulations down but I am talking about what comes NEXT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM Just now, TSSN+ said: Folks Comes up the coast afterwards. Fantastic run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM Euro gonna be real nice on the 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM BOOM 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM Whacked 8 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM Yeah that is folks worthy. 10” snow in a 6 hour window right over Baltimore. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Have you noticed there is a minority but not insignificant camp of guidance that now tanks the AO/NAO again around day 10! If that happens, that means @Bob Chill 's instincts were spot on once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM GFS was SUPER close to this solution too...when I looked at the H5 I was like...hmmm this was a hair away from a big snowstorm so I am not totally shocked something spit out this solution. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM Me like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM Just now, TSSN+ said: Whacked We have to keep Randy off these boards! Lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Tuesday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:43 PM Just now, DDweatherman said: Yeah that is folks worthy. 10” snow in a 6 hour window right over Baltimore. Man this is the second folks run Randy ain't been in here for, lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Tuesday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:43 PM 10 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Tuesday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:44 PM Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Man this is the second folks run Randy ain't been in here for, lol It may be a sign of what works for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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