January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[psuhoffman]

36 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Love your posts since you add insight and reasoning. Can you elaborate on the above? I think the -EPO will be fighting the SE and western Atlantic Ridge in this setup

Thanks.  If you look at the plot I posted, those features all dump a LOT of cold into the went central US, and will exert pressure trying to press the trough east.  The trough near Hawaii pushes the WPO EPO ridge poleward and east slightly, this mitigates the risk of something cutting off into the southwest typically.  The ridge over the top combined with the TPV displaced south where it is dumps a ton of arctic air into western Canada and then the US and its going to press.  I think the SER there is overdone.  The big difference between that plot and when we had a horrible SER are the troughing in the pacific under the northern latitude ridge, and the -AO over the top.  Those 2 features change the equation a lot.  

[jewell2188]

Y’all out here wish for more weekend snow…..you’re fellow snow removal contractors would love to spend time with family at least one weekend this month.

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Wonder why. Big change for 12 hours.

Didn't the GFS kind of score the coup on this progression for quite a few runs? It's being its typical dumbass self right now, but Euro, GGEM, and ICON all bring this energy out and don't hold back in the SW like they did. GFS showed this first IIRC? 

Note: I may be wrong, haven't been tracking for the last several days outside of a cursory peek. 

[IronTy]

14 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

First time I’ve seen blue all season up in the cold spot region. If that holds, 7/8 days later out dominant cold would end 

Uh oh, JB would be exonerated.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Didn't the GFS kind of score the coup on this progression for quite a few runs? It's being its typical dumbass self right now, but Euro, GGEM, and ICON all bring this energy out and don't hold back in the SW like they did. GFS showed this first IIRC? 

Note: I may be wrong, haven't been tracking for the last several days outside of a cursory peek. 

It often shows something first, because it jumps all over the place run to run, but how is that useful since you don't know which solutions it spits out are right and wich are the crazy tangents.  

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Didn't the GFS kind of score the coup on this progression for quite a few runs? It's being its typical dumbass self right now, but Euro, GGEM, and ICON all bring this energy out and don't hold back in the SW like they did. GFS showed this first IIRC? 

Note: I may be wrong, haven't been tracking for the last several days outside of a cursory peek. 

I think you're right, or mostly right, without digging into it.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I think you're right, or mostly right, without digging into it.

All that bitching about the GFS and it may have led the way.   Looks like the next shot is on the 22nd.  Close, but no cigar

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

First time I’ve seen blue all season up in the cold spot region. If that holds, 7/8 days later out dominant cold would end 

Depends, if that plot is 100% accurate yes.  But we know at 15 days out there are errors and my "educated guess" at the most probable error is that its got way too much SER there.  There is a lot of arctic air being discharged directly into the central US there, and so long as there ramains some trough in the pacific under the ridge my guess is that is going to get directed more east than that prog there shows.  

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

All that bitching about the GFS and it may have led the way.   Looks like the next shot is on the 22nd.  Close, but no cigar

No faith in that up here. You might fringed. If I'm wrong, trend better start before Saturday imho unless you can get the kind of change we saw in 12 hours on today's Gem, but across all guidance. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

No faith in that up here. You might fringed. If I'm wrong, trend better start before Saturday imho unless you can get the kind of change we saw in 12 hours on today's Gem, but across all guidance. 

It could trend either way, but there is no blocking so there could be more movement either direction with that wave than there was with most of the recent threats that had a track mostly locked in by a stationary blocked flow.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

No faith in that up here. You might fringed. If I'm wrong, trend better start before Saturday imho unless you can get the kind of change we saw in 12 hours on today's Gem, but across all guidance. 

Euro doesn't even have a storm at all still so hard to buy into anything yet beyond the Sunday deal.

[mitchnick]

Ukie with 2-4" on Sunday north and west of I95 and cities.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Euro doesn't even have a storm at all still so hard to buy into anything yet beyond the Sunday deal.

It's on the Eps.

[WEATHER53]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Depends, if that plot is 100% accurate yes.  But we know at 15 days out there are errors and my "educated guess" at the most probable error is that its got way too much SER there.  There is a lot of arctic air being discharged directly into the central US there, and so long as there ramains some trough in the pacific under the ridge my guess is that is going to get directed more east than that prog there shows.  

I’d be delighted if it stays cold.  Absent just 3/4 days it’s been a good  cold run last 3 weeks 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’d be delighted if it stays cold.  Absent just 3/4 days it’s been a good  cold run last 3 weeks 

Regardless of what our snowfall total ends up, its been a "real winter" which has become rare lately.  

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Regardless of what our snowfall total ends up, its been a "real winter" which has become rare lately.  

you are well below normal snow......you just have had longer snowcover than normal

[WEATHER53]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Regardless of what our snowfall total ends up, its been a "real winter" which has become rare lately.  

Yes and my twin  5 year old grandchildren got their first snow they can remember and play in!!!  You kinda got short  end on the big one  but we gotta a lot left as cold is still full on 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

you are well below normal snow......you just have had longer snowcover than normal

Snowfall is really fluky, especially at our latitude.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Yes and my twin  5 year old grandchildren got their first snow they can remember and play in!!!  You kinda got short  end on the big one  but we gotta a lot left as cold is still full on 

Glad for that, my kids have enjoyed the snow as well.  I can make up ground later in the season, plus I had that crazy lucky good 2021 season so it events out in the long run.  

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Glad for that, my kids have enjoyed the snow as well.  I can make up ground later in the season, plus I had that crazy lucky good 2021 season so it events out in the long run.  

How much did you get in 21? Agree that was some luck. Up in our neck of the woods, last year wasn't really that bad (snow totals wise - but only a couple weeks of real winter). 

[blizzardmeiser]

24 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Uh oh, JB would be exonerated.  

Is JB calling for a major flip?  He usually loves what the MJO shows him. 

[psuhoffman]

Couple random things I've noticed...

First of all...do you know how close this is to a monster storm?  

Dig that SW near the Minn Canada border a little more, slightly more SER and....BOOM

Then...this is not the majority solution across guidance yet, but this has been showing up on quote a few runs, even the op euro a couple times, enough so that we shouldn't just assume we are headed where the consensus has been indicating...

Regardless...across all guidance the pacific jet continues to undercut the ridging in the pacific, and so long as that continues cold we be directed more east than in recent years.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

At this point last year pac puke started showing up on the medium range, this time it's at the very end on long range and it's very likely to get can kicked again.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, blizzardmeiser said:

Is JB calling for a major flip?  He usually loves what the MJO shows him. 

I don't know what he is calling for but the MJO is conflicted right now.  The GFS and GGEM take it on a grand tour of the warm phases but the Euro and CFS kill the wave after phase 3 and have conflicting signals after that, which balance out to a COD plot on the diagrams lol.  The GFS is trending weaker the last 2 days also...towards the idea of not having some god awful MC MJO traverse.  

[blizzardmeiser]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I don't know what he is calling for but the MJO is conflicted right now.  The GFS and GGEM take it on a grand tour of the warm phases but the Euro and CFS kill the wave after phase 3 and have conflicting signals after that, which balance out to a COD plot on the diagrams lol.  The GFS is trending weaker the last 2 days also...towards the idea of not having some god awful MC MJO traverse.  

Very helpful!  When will we feel confident it isn't heading into 4 and beyond...

[psuhoffman]

Just now, blizzardmeiser said:

Very helpful!  When will we feel confident it isn't heading into 4 and beyond...

I think in about 5 days we will have a much better idea of where the MJO is heading 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

How much did you get in 21? Agree that was some luck. Up in our neck of the woods, last year wasn't really that bad (snow totals wise - but only a couple weeks of real winter). 

Just over 50".  Not only did I get into the southern edge of the big totals on those 2 HECS storms that hit just north of our area...but I jacked a few times on smaller storms and marginal events...I was like the epicenter of the positive snowfall anomalies for the whole east coast that winter...just got super lucky. It happens.  This year has been the inverse of that so far.  Well even worse just north of me, at least I had that nice little 4" snow in November and 4" last week isn't nothing.  I am content with the winter so far.  Sure I'd love to jack every freaking time but that isn't how it goes, except maybe in Ji's head.  

[mitchnick]

Some big differences in the 12z Gfs, Ukie, and Gem at 168hrs keeping "some" hope alive soon thereafter. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Some big differences in the 12z Gfs, Ukie, and Gem at 168hrs keeping "some" hope alive soon thereafter. 

Have you noticed there is a minority but not insignificant camp of guidance that now tanks the AO/NAO again around day 10!  

[blizzardmeiser]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think in about 5 days we will have a much better idea of where the MJO is heading 

Cold is great for snow or to keep snowcover.  If it is going to be dry and cold for weeks then not so much....  Hopefully this pattern delivers