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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looking way out, I continue to see signs the pattern is not progressing to the typical Nina Feb hellscape I expected.  

Actually...if the 3 features I marked here are correct...that trough will end up more southeast than it is on guidance right now.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-8108800.thumb.png.b7b0d14aca1071958a47dabe82fcaff5.png

Love your posts since you add insight and reasoning. Can you elaborate on the above? I think the -EPO will be fighting the SE and western Atlantic Ridge in this setup

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Looking way out, I continue to see signs the pattern is not progressing to the typical Nina Feb hellscape I expected.  

Actually...if the 3 features I marked here are correct...that trough will end up more southeast than it is on guidance right now.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-8108800.thumb.png.b7b0d14aca1071958a47dabe82fcaff5.png

First time I’ve seen blue all season up in the cold spot region. If that holds, 7/8 days later out dominant cold would end 

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36 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Love your posts since you add insight and reasoning. Can you elaborate on the above? I think the -EPO will be fighting the SE and western Atlantic Ridge in this setup

Thanks.  If you look at the plot I posted, those features all dump a LOT of cold into the went central US, and will exert pressure trying to press the trough east.  The trough near Hawaii pushes the WPO EPO ridge poleward and east slightly, this mitigates the risk of something cutting off into the southwest typically.  The ridge over the top combined with the TPV displaced south where it is dumps a ton of arctic air into western Canada and then the US and its going to press.  I think the SER there is overdone.  The big difference between that plot and when we had a horrible SER are the troughing in the pacific under the northern latitude ridge, and the -AO over the top.  Those 2 features change the equation a lot.  

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Wonder why. Big change for 12 hours.

trend-gdps-2025011412-f132.500h_anom.conus.gif

Didn't the GFS kind of score the coup on this progression for quite a few runs? It's being its typical dumbass self right now, but Euro, GGEM, and ICON all bring this energy out and don't hold back in the SW like they did. GFS showed this first IIRC? 

Note: I may be wrong, haven't been tracking for the last several days outside of a cursory peek. 

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Didn't the GFS kind of score the coup on this progression for quite a few runs? It's being its typical dumbass self right now, but Euro, GGEM, and ICON all bring this energy out and don't hold back in the SW like they did. GFS showed this first IIRC? 

Note: I may be wrong, haven't been tracking for the last several days outside of a cursory peek. 

It often shows something first, because it jumps all over the place run to run, but how is that useful since you don't know which solutions it spits out are right and wich are the crazy tangents.  

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Didn't the GFS kind of score the coup on this progression for quite a few runs? It's being its typical dumbass self right now, but Euro, GGEM, and ICON all bring this energy out and don't hold back in the SW like they did. GFS showed this first IIRC? 

Note: I may be wrong, haven't been tracking for the last several days outside of a cursory peek. 

I think you're right, or mostly right, without digging into it.

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