January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That last .08" makes all the difference 

Hey... you know some people on here go out to the .0001 place when measuring snow.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Even with the 6z run hot off the presses showing precip being really increased for Sunday?

That wave strikes me as a 3-6" type thing wherever it ends up.  Maybe slightly more in the jack zone.  Similar to a lot of those boundary waves that popped up at the last minute in 2014 and 2015.  

[Kevin Reilly]

53 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Damn, woke up to 100+ posts and thought something good must’ve happened overnight… which it did, yet all the posts here are kinda bad? lol. 
 

6z EURO and GFS both looked better for Sunday, and the CMC is leading the way with the “big southern storm” that still has a lot of time to get resolved. I know PSU has decided we don’t necessarily want storms to our south at strange, but I’ll take the GFS’s look at day 8.
 

Looking at incoming pattern that’s coming north pretty confident not really caring about what the models show until 0z Thursday.  I think Euro too extreme with NW push comes southeast and gfs comes NW to meet in the middle and hit for us. 

[psuhoffman]

Looking way out, I continue to see signs the pattern is not progressing to the typical Nina Feb hellscape I expected.  

Actually...if the 3 features I marked here are correct...that trough will end up more southeast than it is on guidance right now.  

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That wave strikes me as a 3-6" type thing wherever it ends up.  Maybe slightly more in the jack zone.  Similar to a lot of those boundary waves that popped up at the last minute in 2014 and 2015.  

Though it's early, this thing has favored our area once there was a consensus of a wave east of the mts (recall the Gfs and maybe others initially had a storm on the front heading for the Lakes.) I "think" it will favor us in the end, but with how much remains the question. But if it doesn't favor us, any place but central VA and SBY. Reminders of the debacle winter of 72/73 cannot be shaken. Lol

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Unlike the last storm, there is nothing to prevent it from trending NW as psu alluded to the other day.

hardly any blocking over greenland, s/w energy hanging back west. That PV is pressing south, but one tiny shift the other way, the track is coming north.

And you want a proverbial reshuffle? Careful now… you might get a SE ridge with that.

Haha.. I drafted and then deleted almost the exact post this morning. .  I wont be so shy next time.   I also think the position of trough is important also WRT suppression vs Coastal Track.  As depicted above, one would think that a coastal low is definitely favored over a southern/ suppressed track.  However, if you go forward 2 days, the center of the trough moves east by a couple hundred miles and the isobars are more WSW - ENE oriented over our area.  I think that is why dont see a storm on the Euro for the 22nd 00z and a southern track on the GFS .. but as you said, the overall synoptic pattern does not indicate suppression and there are chances the second wave comes north as we move closer to the event.

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

ICON 500mb panel at 120 is pretty sweet.

[stormtracker]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

ICON 500mb panel at 120 is pretty sweet.

Looks like it's gonna a deliver a little something

[stormtracker]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Looks like it's gonna a deliver a little something

It does.  Nothing crazy...but it's....something

[stormtracker]

2" mofos! 4 up to the MD border

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

2" mofos! 4 up to the MD border

It's a nice light event and it would be great to score our 3rd accumulating event of the winter before the Siberian express.

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

2" mofos! 4 up to the MD border

Corrections have begun and the steps forward going forward,,, classic. 

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

2" mofos! 4 up to the MD border

WxBell map

[stormtracker]

Not one change on the GFS so far.  Almost exact copy.  But it's early. 60hr

[mikem81]

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looking way out, I continue to see signs the pattern is not progressing to the typical Nina Feb hellscape I expected.  

Actually...if the 3 features I marked here are correct...that trough will end up more southeast than it is on guidance right now.  

Love your posts since you add insight and reasoning. Can you elaborate on the above? I think the -EPO will be fighting the SE and western Atlantic Ridge in this setup

[stormtracker]

GFS hates us.  Nothing like the ICON..some paltry shit just to our south. A little something good for Cape I think?  More over the northern neck..and I mean like 1-3

[rjvanals]

GFS has the bowling ball back off SOCAL 

[stormtracker]

Got some differences out west.  Little bowling ball over Baja California (wasn't there at 6z) with some energy dropping down...might phase into it..or squash it

[stormtracker]

Well, it's wildly different out west.   Little bowling ball getting smashed and out in front of this new shit out west

[stormtracker]

Interesting...bunch of moisture (light) over all of Tx, most of OK and CO and most of the south that wasn't there at 6z.  Just light stuff tho

[stormtracker]

looks like it's prob gonna wash out.  I dunno wtf I'm looking at or doing here, so imma shut up until i see something good.

[stormtracker]

lol, i said i was gonna shut up, but congrats on your ice storm New Orleans and south AL and GA.  ATL snowstorm!  SC getting da business (for their criteria).  This is funny.  And painful.

Where yall at?

[WxUSAF]

GGEM still different, but looks like a modest hit early Monday 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM still different, but looks like a modest hit early Monday 

Yup..gets a little action to us.  Nickle and dime-ing all the way baby

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM still different, but looks like a modest hit early Monday 

1" for me...more to the NW...like 2-3

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

Hey... you know some people on here go out to the .0001 place when measuring snow.

That's good for an additional 2-4" if we use Kuchera ratios generously.  

[Shad]

GFS is gonna smoke southern-central VA

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Looking way out, I continue to see signs the pattern is not progressing to the typical Nina Feb hellscape I expected.  

Actually...if the 3 features I marked here are correct...that trough will end up more southeast than it is on guidance right now.  

First time I’ve seen blue all season up in the cold spot region. If that holds, 7/8 days later out dominant cold would end 

[bncho]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup..gets a little action to us.  Nickle and dime-ing all the way baby

Where's our dollar coin?

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM still different, but looks like a modest hit early Monday 

Wonder why. Big change for 12 hours.