January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[mitchnick]

Looks like EuroAI I just worked up my nerve to look at (lol) actually looks to bring a northern stream lobe down and pulls up some precip from the system next week. That's a new twist. Interestingly, the southern storm is rain and not snow. Hmmm

[winter_warlock]

So we got gfs a lil too far south and euro a lil too far NW for the cities.. im thinkin middle if the road lol

[mitchnick]

From NE subforum 

https://x.com/meteomark/status/1879062270723977690?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

[anotherman]

From NE subforum 
https://x.com/meteomark/status/1879062270723977690?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

Margarbage!!!!

[winter_warlock]

7 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Yep. We need a proverbial reshuffle, but it probably wouldn't make a difference with the Niña. Winter has spoken and dry is the word. This month is looking a lot like 1/77, but not quite as cold...not yet at least.

Depends on your location 

[Terpeast]

Unlike the last storm, there is nothing to prevent it from trending NW as psu alluded to the other day.

hardly any blocking over greenland, s/w energy hanging back west. That PV is pressing south, but one tiny shift the other way, the track is coming north.

And you want a proverbial reshuffle? Careful now… you might get a SE ridge with that.

[blizzardmeiser]

14 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Margarbage!!!!

This guy is always hyping snowmaggedon.  Still waiting for him to get one right.  

[wasnow215]

2 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Was about go Jaws and then the next few frames it just gets shredded.

It's perfect! Hahahaha

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Margarbage!!!!

Never heard of him. I was focused on the euro snowfall map.

[anotherman]

Never heard of him. I was focused on the euro snowfall map.

He is probably the biggest weenie wishcaster out there.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Unlike the last storm, there is nothing to prevent it from trending NW as psu alluded to the other day.

hardly any blocking over greenland, s/w energy hanging back west. That PV is pressing south, but one tiny shift the other way, the track is coming north.

And you want a proverbial reshuffle? Careful now… you might get a SE ridge with that.

SE ridge looks inevitable, but doesn't necessarily have to mean no snow. I actually am pretty optimistic that something breaks in our favor in January when the cold is around or February with the likelihood of being at or AN precip. Going to need really bad luck to miss everything substantial imho.

[anotherman]

He is probably the biggest weenie wishcaster out there.

With 77,000 followers….

[stormtracker]

49 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looks like EuroAI I just worked up my nerve to look at (lol) actually looks to bring a northern stream lobe down and pulls up some precip from the system next week. That's a new twist. Interestingly, the southern storm is rain and not snow. Hmmm

Stay off the AI crack son. 

[stormtracker]

29 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Margarbage!!!!

Buckle up!  It’s gonna get wild!!

[frd]

12 minutes ago, anotherman said:

He is probably the biggest weenie wishcaster out there.

He should apply to BammWX 

[Mikeymac5306]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Buckle up!  It’s gonna get wild!!

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Stay off the AI crack son. 

Even with the 6z run hot off the presses showing precip being really increased for Sunday?

[Ji]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Never heard of him. I was focused on the euro snowfall map.

back in the day we used to have the Weenie of the year award. He would be in the hall of fame

[bncho]

48 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

So we got gfs a lil too far south and euro a lil too far NW for the cities.. im thinkin middle if the road lol

Does the GFS SE bias still exist?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Even with the 6z run hot off the presses showing precip being really increased for Sunday?

Wow it's nice for Sunday.  Solid 2-5 event for us.

[NorthArlington101]

Damn, woke up to 100+ posts and thought something good must’ve happened overnight… which it did, yet all the posts here are kinda bad? lol. 
 

6z EURO and GFS both looked better for Sunday, and the CMC is leading the way with the “big southern storm” that still has a lot of time to get resolved. I know PSU has decided we don’t necessarily want storms to our south at strange, but I’ll take the GFS’s look at day 8.
 

[Interstate]

23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Damn, woke up to 100+ posts and thought something good must’ve happened overnight… which it did, yet all the posts here are kinda bad? lol. 
 

6z EURO and GFS both looked better for Sunday, and the CMC is leading the way with the “big southern storm” that still has a lot of time to get resolved. I know PSU has decided we don’t necessarily want storms to our south at strange, but I’ll take the GFS’s look at day 8.
 

This checks out... Atmospheric memory.

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Damn, woke up to 100+ posts and thought something good must’ve happened overnight… which it did, yet all the posts here are kinda bad? lol. 
 

6z EURO and GFS both looked better for Sunday, and the CMC is leading the way with the “big southern storm” that still has a lot of time to get resolved. I know PSU has decided we don’t necessarily want storms to our south at strange, but I’ll take the GFS’s look at day 8.
 

It depends... I don't think as a blanket rule we just want something to our south anymore, and that was a typical bias across almost all guidance 20 years ago.  Especially the GFS.  Now it's much more nuanced.  In a blocking regime, frankly, storms have been more likely to trend south recently.  But each pattern is different and each synoptic situation is different.  In the coming pattern it is a lot more likely that things could trend north significantly if the models are overdoing the amplitude of the TPV or wrong in the location of features at range.  Of course if a NS wave were to come along right over the top it could squash it, like that storm in March 2014 that was supposed to hit PA then came south because of a wave over the top.  But even in a progressive wave pattern it feels recently like the errors are more split between north and south...they are just larger in a non blocking regime since there is less locking in the track of the waves. 

I will say this though...in a progressive wave pattern more amplified trends mean north...and I like being on the side of getting to root for a bigger more amplified storm.  When a system is north of you, you're kinda left rooting for the storm to be weaker and more pathetic, thats no fun lol.  

[Kevin Reilly]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yall are funny. The gfs is barely a miss to the SE. the ggem is barely a miss to the NW. meanwhile the solution shifts around every run. And we’re worrying about what?  Obviously the final solution isn’t going to be known for a while. 

Thursday Night at earliest.

[psuhoffman]

The models are less consistent in their errors, but that is a good thing.  It's because they are better.  So there is no one obvious automatic error anymore.  The errors are based on smaller mistakes they may be making specific to each synoptic setup.  But we know at day 7 or 10 there is likely to be an error.  More so in some patterns than others.  So we have to ask "what is the most likely error being made here" by each specific model in each specific situation.  

[stormtracker]

55 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Even with the 6z run hot off the presses showing precip being really increased for Sunday?

Yup.  12z will show rain and 38.

[stormtracker]

37 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Damn, woke up to 100+ posts and thought something good must’ve happened overnight… which it did, yet all the posts here are kinda bad? lol. 
 

6z EURO and GFS both looked better for Sunday, and the CMC is leading the way with the “big southern storm” that still has a lot of time to get resolved. I know PSU has decided we don’t necessarily want storms to our south at strange, but I’ll take the GFS’s look at day 8.
 

It's not bad..and we have time.  It's just annoying at the moment.

[Kevin Reilly]

8 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

yes...we want the storm to develop after the front passes imo.  Euro is trying.  Maybe it ends up being another 1-2".  Like most of our events

That would be every event here. 4.88” for the season that’s it.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

That would be every event here. 4.88” for the season that’s it.

That last .08" makes all the difference 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

The main player over the next 10 days honestly looks like the drought. I'm glad I got what I got when I got it. 

The drought here never left.