January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Everything is suppressed

...and everyone is depressed. 

[Ji]

...and everyone is depressed. 

We need to beef up Sunday like 18z gfs. We suck at snow

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

We need to beef up Sunday like 18z gfs. We suck at snow

Yep. We need a proverbial reshuffle, but it probably wouldn't make a difference with the Niña. Winter has spoken and dry is the word. This month is looking a lot like 1/77, but not quite as cold...not yet at least.

[mitchnick]

Just looked at the Gefs snowfall, and thru 330hrs, big step back from 12z and prior runs. 

[Jebman]

Next week folks. Need to keep a serious eye on models, and stay frosty. We could even see some frozen right down here in Buda TX.

You all REALLY need to keep a serious weather eye on the models next 8 days.

Remember,  the Jebman called it. Remember that as you clamber out of your windows to get out the damn house come Jan 22 or so.

THIS COULD BE VERY BAD.  Or GOOD, depending on your point of view, lol.

Carry on.

[MDScienceTeacher]

The GFS brought snow back for Sunday into Monday. Little further south, but at least it still had the same idea as the 18Z

[MDScienceTeacher]

Big storm for the 22nd incoming.. again a little south at this timeframe, but I will take it

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

12 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Big storm for the 22nd incoming.. again a little south at this timeframe, but I will take it

 

0z EPS looks a little more supportive of a storm existing in this time frame on the coast than 12z EPS did. 

[osfan24]

13 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Big storm for the 22nd incoming.. again a little south at this timeframe, but I will take it

 

Was about go Jaws and then the next few frames it just gets shredded.

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

0z EPS looks a little more supportive of this time frame than 12z EPS did. 

I cant really tell the difference btw the 2.





 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, MDScienceTeacher said:

I cant really tell the difference btw the 2.





 

I was looking at the 24 hour precip maps. 

[MDScienceTeacher]

13 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Was about go Jaws and then the next few frames it just gets shredded.

I am not sure if the upper air pattern at that time frame really supports that outcome.  It definitely does not look like the last couple of weeks where we had a raging 50-50 low, eating away at storms as they approach our region. To my untrained eye the jet stream looks more sw to ne in its configuration over our region, which I would think would support a coastal low.  Then again I am not the expert on these 500 MB Maps.. 

[Fozz]

46 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Big storm for the 22nd incoming.. again a little south at this timeframe, but I will take it

 

So close to being a monster storm for most of us.

[TSSN+]

Euro with the snow delivery NW of 95.

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Euro with the snow delivery NW of 95.

 

That’s pretty good, I like seeing a more robust system. 

[dailylurker]

Gfs looks like an improvement. It gives us a little snow this weekend. It now fringes the area with the historic southern blizzard. Looks better for the lowlands atm. 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Gfs looks like an improvement. It gives us a little snow this weekend. It now fringes the area with the historic southern blizzard. Looks better for the lowlands atm. 

Not much interest on the GEFS for Sunday-Monday.

[dailylurker]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not much interest on the GEFS for Sunday-Monday.

The main player over the next 10 days honestly looks like the drought. I'm glad I got what I got when I got it. 

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not much interest on the GEFS for Sunday-Monday.

I’d rather take no snow than what the Euro shows now verbatim.  

[mitchnick]

Incredible/depressing how all ensembles are jumping all over a SE major snowstorm. 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Incredible/depressing how all ensembles are jumping all over a SE major snowstorm. 

Whats the surprise, the analogs indicated this days ago. Most snowfall the next 15 days in VA. and below.   Wasted cold for our area. 

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Incredible/depressing how all ensembles are jumping all over a SE major snowstorm. 

Too much of a good thing. We are the new New England minus the horrid accents. 

[Blizzard of 93]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Incredible/depressing how all ensembles are jumping all over a SE major snowstorm. 

That’s still 8 days away…………..

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

Whats the surprise, the analogs indicated this days ago. Most snowfall the next 15 days in VA. and below.   Wasted cold for our area. 

Not surprised, incredible and depressing.  Lol

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That’s still 8 days away…………..

You're right. Plenty of time to get historic for them. Lol

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Lol, the models still can’t agree on the potential Sunday night into Monday possibility, but some of you guys are depressed about what might happen after the undecided prior period?

On to 12z…

[CAPE]

47 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’d rather take no snow than what the Euro shows now verbatim.  

There are some differences in the advertised longwave pattern between the globals. Euro digs the trough more than the GFS and delays the eastward progress of the thermal boundary a bit. Shortwave energy and associated surface low track is further NW.

[dailylurker]

21 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’d rather take no snow than what the Euro shows now verbatim.  

Warm rain?

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, the models still can’t agree on the potential Sunday night into Monday possibility, but some of you guys are depressed about what might happen after the undecided prior period?

On to 12z…

You are right, but the kind of agreement between operational models and ensembles is not typical and is normally only seen in slam dunks. For example, 2/6/10 and 1/16 were seen around a week out and held strong until game time with little waffling.

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro with the snow delivery NW of 95.

 

A little more to come after that