January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[stormy]

I'm slightly interested. 2 identical runs are impressive.

[LeesburgWx]

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

I'm slightly interested. 2 identical runs are impressive.

Oh my, we even have Stormy on board now. All systems go, start the bus!

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I think he already did that a couple weeks ago.  Maybe Reagan, can't remember for sure.  

He always would bring up that storm. It dropped like 8-10" in the DCA/BWI area and then had highs in the teens. Actually, for the first time, it may not be such a bad analogy tempwise but just a touch short on snow..or maybe not. We'll see.

Reagan's inauguration was cold, but no snow.

[snowfan]

36 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I got a very special message for you.

Just keep your control freak shit up. . Your what does the 360 hour gfs say in 8 paragraphs is not the only conversation in  here and far far from the best

 

Gotta say….the control freak part is on point, but nothing will change. This has been allowed to happen for a few years now. 

[wasnow215]

So much banter. Makes it hard to just read the actual January Medium/Long Range  -maybe we should have a banter thread? Oh wait....

[mitchnick]

Now THAT'S  my idea of overrunning! Oh, how I wish.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011318&fh=384&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

[TSSN+]

Guys, let’s get back on track. How much for Short Pump? 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Guys, let’s get back on track. How much for Short Pump? 

Yeah, we need to get back to basics. So any Mets want to tell me how much for my backyard? 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

We need a @stormtracker 18z euro PBP to calm the masses. 

[Heisy]

At 18z there GFS sped the wave up and the Euro slowed it down, GFS is likely wrong as usual


.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

At 18z there GFS sped the wave up and the Euro slowed it down, GFS is likely wrong as usual


.

Result better with Euro or too early to know? Pivotal is slower that WB.

[mitchnick]

Heights lower on the east coast at the end of this run of the Euro means slp could be further south if model continued. Just speculation at this point. Next run could be different, of course.

[mitchnick]

Comparing 18z Euro 144hrs to 12z 150hrs.

[Ji]

Comparing 18z Euro 144hrs to 12z 150hrs.

No snow on euro through 144

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

No snow on euro through 144

Yeah, but there was no snow on the 12z Euro at 150hrs either, but ready to pop. You can see as Heisey posted the vort hangs back some. Being in the bullseye of sorts at this range is down right uncomfortable. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Comparing 18z Euro 144hrs to 12z 150hrs.

Much better. Less avocado and slower s/w

[stormtracker]

46 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

We need a @stormtracker 18z euro PBP to calm the masses. 

Was at the gym and grocery store.  Seems like we didn't miss much.

[stormtracker]

It would be hilarious if the CMC led the way.

[mitchnick]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It would be hilarious if the CMC led the way.

As long as the end result was what it showed on the 12z run, leed the way CMC. It's all yours baby.

[mitchnick]

I hate seeing anything different on subsequent runs after a good one because you never know where it will take you.

[mitchnick]

For everyone else who's paranoid, Eps 6hr precip 144hrs on 18z vs 12z at 150hrs. Pretty close really.

[Miss Pixee]

Technical question (I may be saying this wrong)

What's the millibar numbers for say Mid-Atlantic Superstorms, the real snow busters? I see meteorologists mention systems by millibars/pressure a lot.

And when do signals on monster storms generally reach agreement (time window)?

[Ji]

maybe you need to take a break then dude.  Stop acting like my 3 yr old.

We need to watch how we talk to our elders

[LongRanger]

Wait, Joe Bartlo procreated? Say it ain't so!

[WVclimo]

10 minutes ago, LongRanger said:

Wait, Joe Bartlo procreated? Say it ain't so!

That’s a blast from the past.  Sadly. Joe passed in 2007 at the age of 44.

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I hate seeing anything different on subsequent runs after a good one because you never know where it will take you.

GFS gonna break your heart.   I'll be here for you.

[csnavywx]

Ya'll are hoping for that GFS weak overrunning solution when the real money is closer to the 18Z Euro that hangs most of the energy back in the base of the longwave and is thus available for a Gulf low rather than a weak slider that comes out in pieces. We've got some real cold air to work with this time, so stop worrying about the thermals.

[Herb@MAWS]

54 minutes ago, LongRanger said:

Wait, Joe Bartlo procreated? Say it ain't so!

The very fun NE.Weather Snow Forecasting Contest makes direct reference to Joe Bartlo under the section “Who Can Enter” and includes some of his humorous postings (will sound non-sensical if u weren’t there) and ravings complete with his typos from back in the old bulletin board days of ne.weather where everyone fought with posts about who was right or wrong. Inside jokes in this section; “you had to be there” with Bartlo’s posts. Bartlo was a trip.

The forecasting contest grew out of frustration with having to deal with newsgroup  personalities like Bartlo who tried to hijack and ruin weather forecasting discussions. Not much monitoring back then in late ‘90s. The Contest jokingly honored him after he passed away.

http://www.newx-forecasts.com

And now, we return to our 21st century regular programming. 

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Ya'll are hoping for that GFS weak overrunning solution when the real money is closer to the 18Z Euro that hangs most of the energy back in the base of the longwave and is thus available for a Gulf low rather than a weak slider that comes out in pieces. We've got some real cold air to work with this time, so stop worrying about the thermals.

Agree. Love what the 18z euro is showing. Looks like it’s loading up its bazooka and aiming it right at us. 

[clskinsfan]

ICON with some ice on Saturday west of town. And a light event on Monday.