SnowGoose69 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:11 PM, psuhoffman said: Not all pac ridge regimes are the same. I keep looking for signs we’re going into a pull latitude central pac ridge centered near Hawaii (that’s what we don’t want) and it keeps getting pushed back. Again today signs of the pac jet extending under the north pac ridging continues to show up. So long as that happens it pushes ridging into western N America enough to direct the cold further east and avoid the bad pna troughs. It’s a broader wavelength pattern v the one where storms dig and cut off out west. I think we end up with a hybrid pattern where there is a North Pacific WPO EPO ridge but without the connection to the tropics of the recent uber -PDO years and that has a better downstream impact on our pattern Expand I'm to the point where I feel the only way the pattern fully snaps and breaks down is the MJO races through 4-5-6 but its hard for me to believe this wave can continue at this amplitude that long 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Going to need to mid to late week to get a better idea. Still anyone’s game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:15 PM, psuhoffman said: That wave around the 20th which is 2-4" across most guidance right now is the type of thing that can easily juice up to 3-6" come gametime. If we get a 3-6" snow followed by an arctic blast...well that is not some winter fail imo. I don't necessarily see a MECS level threat until perhaps after the next cold shot starts to relax but I also don't see some suddent end to our snow chances coming either. There are also some opportunities to score a little 1-2" event somewhere from a discreet NS wave that wouldn't be showing up yet. This doesn't look as bad as some seem to be making it. Why and how did I become the optimist here? Expand This wave has some similarities to the 1/21/2014 event. That wave looked rather weak and kept getting better and stronger right up until game time. Also looked too warm a few days out and forecasts kept trending colder. Ended up with 8-9 inches of cold powder here. Less to the south but I think everyone got a 3-7 event. Temps fells through out the storm as it was warmish the couple days before leading into it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 5:58 PM, mattie g said: Seems...overdone. Expand Models never overdo cold. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Looks like Mitchnick gets his avocado suppression depression patterm after the 20th geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Fast flow and dryness, the preceeding probably the cause of the latter, is our nemesis. Nothing we can do about it. I haven't bothered to find out why, but the Gefs keep piling up snow past 180hrs. 3" imby. Seems crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:28 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like Mitchnick gets his avocado suppression depression patterm after the 20th geez. Expand Thanks for the shout out... Now get outta' here kid, ya' bother me! :p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:23 PM, HighStakes said: This wave has some similarities to the 1/21/2014 event. That wave looked rather weak and kept getting better and stronger right up until game time. Also looked too warm a few days out and forecasts kept trending colder. Ended up with 8-9 inches of cold powder here. Less to the south but I think everyone got a 3-7 event. Temps fells through out the storm as it was warmish the couple days before leading into it. Expand Great catch, I was just thinking about that and looking at it, there are similarities in the pattern also. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:18 PM, JenkinsJinkies said: Well that was also the case in recent seasons and they still stopped short. Reminder that DC was less than an inch away from reaching climo in 21-22, it stopped short because one of the final snow events had too much warm air at higher altitudes and it was mostly graupel. Expand These are two completely different seasons with very different patterns, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I called the 20th last week and I am sticking with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:15 PM, psuhoffman said: That wave around the 20th which is 2-4" across most guidance right now is the type of thing that can easily juice up to 3-6" come gametime. If we get a 3-6" snow followed by an arctic blast...well that is not some winter fail imo. I don't necessarily see a MECS level threat until perhaps after the next cold shot starts to relax but I also don't see some suddent end to our snow chances coming either. There are also some opportunities to score a little 1-2" event somewhere from a discreet NS wave that wouldn't be showing up yet. This doesn't look as bad as some seem to be making it. Why and how did I become the optimist here? Expand So do you think the guide has moved away from the overrunning pattern recently or is that just the ops overdoing the cold at range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Euro AI 12z still has Sunday event and it looks even drier than 6z but you'll need the better maps in an hour or so to confirm. I seriously doubt it's more however. No other snow on the run short of a very little bit from a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 When is the next SSWE to reshuffle the deck? Looks like we need less cold? 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:21 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I'm to the point where I feel the only way the pattern fully snaps and breaks down is the MJO races through 4-5-6 but its hard for me to believe this wave can continue at this amplitude that long Expand Our best cold source region is still producing and will continue thru at least first week if Feb I have been prattling on endlessly about that and have been oh so correct for almost a month 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 7:09 PM, WEATHER53 said: Our best cold source region is still producing and will continue thru at least first week if Feb I have been prattling on endlessly about that and have been oh so correct for almost a month Expand You've been right, no one is trying to take that way from you lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 7:09 PM, WEATHER53 said: Our best cold source region is still producing and will continue thru at least first week if Feb I have been prattling on endlessly about that and have been oh so correct for almost a month Expand Your humility is praiseworthy. 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Sterling watching for potential lol. Fwiw... The trend for colder temperatures continues into early next week as longwave troughing envelopes much of the CONUS. Waves of low pressure will have to be monitored for potential wintry precip during this time given the cold air in place and a baroclinic zone lurking nearby. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Fyi, today's weeklies just out maintain BN a lot the first 2 weeks, then keep us normal until the week of 2/17-24. That is a major can-kick from the last several days that had AN getting here starting the week of 2/3. Fwiw, AN precip the week starting 1/27 and then normal thru 2/24. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 8:09 PM, mitchnick said: Fyi, today's weeklies just out maintain BN a lot the first 2 weeks, then keep us normal until the week of 2/17-24. That is a major can-kick from the last several days that had AN getting here starting the week of 2/3. Fwiw, AN precip the week starting 1/27 and then normal thru 2/24. Expand Love the sound of that. Below normal!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 6:11 PM, psuhoffman said: Not all pac ridge regimes are the same. I keep looking for signs we’re going into a pull latitude central pac ridge centered near Hawaii (that’s what we don’t want) and it keeps getting pushed back. Again today signs of the pac jet extending under the north pac ridging continues to show up. So long as that happens it pushes ridging into western N America enough to direct the cold further east and avoid the bad pna troughs. It’s a broader wavelength pattern v the one where storms dig and cut off out west. I think we end up with a hybrid pattern where there is a North Pacific WPO EPO ridge but without the connection to the tropics of the recent uber -PDO years and that has a better downstream impact on our pattern Expand I agree. Makes sense with a la nina and current Pattern mixup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 7:28 PM, psuhoffman said: You've been right, no one is trying to take that way from you lol Expand Did not say they were i know it galls you otherwise you would Not have to jump in so quick Think sometimes Before you respond in an instigative manner . The adult is me, not thee 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 8:09 PM, mitchnick said: Fyi, today's weeklies just out maintain BN a lot the first 2 weeks, then keep us normal until the week of 2/17-24. That is a major can-kick from the last several days that had AN getting here starting the week of 2/3. Fwiw, AN precip the week starting 1/27 and then normal thru 2/24. Expand ive never seen someone be some positive and negative in the same day every day. Never change 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 8:16 PM, WEATHER53 said: Did not say they were i know it galls you otherwise you would Not have to jump in so quick Think sometimes Before you respond in an instigative manner . The adult is me, not thee Expand You must be a lot of fun at parties 2 7 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 7:39 PM, mattie g said: Your humility is praiseworthy. Expand Considering the amount of shit I take it’s warranted . Feel free to take credit if you have something to predict that comes out true and stays that way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 8:17 PM, psuhoffman said: You must be a lot of fun at parties Expand Obsessive zealot borderline stalker 2 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Oh my. anyway, how’s next week looking? 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 8:16 PM, Ji said: ive never seen someone be some positive and negative in the same day every day. Never change Expand What you call negative, I call honest assessment. But don't confuse negative with disgust. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 8:22 PM, mappy said: Oh my. anyway, how’s next week looking? Expand Cold!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 This sure covers next Monday... M.L.King Day A chance of snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 7:09 PM, WEATHER53 said: Our best cold source region is still producing and will continue thru at least first week if Feb I have been prattling on endlessly about that and have been oh so correct for almost a month Expand anyone got the current barometric pressure reading in Ulaanbaatar? I need to check something 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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