Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 There have been very few permutations among all the ensembles and op runs that have a hit from both the 20th and 22nd threats...They are linked. If more energy comes out with the wave on the 20th the 22nd is likely weaker and south. If more energy holds back at the tail of the trough, the 22nd becomes a more amplified wave and a threat but the 20th is likely nothing. It's likely one or the other. There is a narrow thread the needle balance of energy that could lead to two hits but its not the most likely outcome. This is a good post, the fantasy progression is basically the 12z GFS, but where the pattern leads to that second event coming up the coast. My money is on the energy coming E for an event on the 20th because that’s where the euro is generally at, but we’ll see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I'm glad that some of the better models (GEM, ECMWF) are showing better results (snowstorms for the Mid-Atlantic). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, Shad said: Talking about GFS Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: The historic storm for the south being referenced is on the GFS. Oh shit. CMC gets us up to 4-8...might be including some sleet tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Inject the GGEM right into my veins please 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Am I looking at the wrong model? What hour yall at? Because on the CMC we get it Yes but it’s a different progression where the energy gets stuck out west. It’s the same wave, but a couple days later . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gem faked us out was it overrunning? lol just kidding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: was it overrunning? lol just kidding No, but my BP is! Lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: TPV sitting in Ontario and Quebec is not going to let anything climb the coast. Need it either well west or east. GGEM has that centered back near Hudson bay with a block over the top, more of an AO block than NAO but with a TPV over Hudson that's actually a really good configuration. And it leads to snow. Let's just hope the GFS is wrong with parking the TPV right on top of us, but it's probably good that its only the worst model doing that right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: No, but my BP is! Lol Mitch BP: Hr 240/hr 180 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, mitchnick said: No, but my BP is! Lol It’s gonna be a long week. Maybe not a bad idea to sneak in a checkup with the doc? (I’m actually gonna do the same…) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: This is a good post, the fantasy progression is basically the 12z GFS, but where the pattern leads to that second event coming up the coast. My money is on the energy coming E for an event on the 20th because that’s where the euro is generally at, but we’ll see . It's all on the table... where the TPV sets up, where the block over the top of it is (new wrinkle) and how the energy in the flow underneath interacts and ejects. And those are way too many moving linked parts for the guidance to get this nailed down at any kind of long leads. This is more of an inside 72 hours kind of setup, which I know is frustrating but it is what it is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: It’s gonna be a long week. Maybe not a bad idea to sneak in a checkup with the doc? (I’m actually gonna do the same…) Funny. Mine is Wednesday, no joke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, stormtracker said: Funny. Mine is Wednesday, no joke. Tomorrow for me lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Goofy ass evolution The 12z GFS and 6z euro are almost identical at 144 hours so I would personally put that cmc solution directly in the trash. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It’s gonna be a long week. Maybe not a bad idea to sneak in a checkup with the doc? (I’m actually gonna do the same…) Fortunately, that under control 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Tomorrow for me lol How did this happen, lol Had I been more on the ball this would've been my week too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Liking the GEFS at 129 hours, good separation and the main wave looks stronger . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, Heisy said: Liking the GEFS at 129 hours, good separation and the main wave looks stronger . Which wave would that be? If it's a stronger first wave then perhaps that's not the one we want? I mean 2-4" is nice, but it would come at the expense of a stronger 2nd wave. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is more of an inside 72 hours kind of setup, which I know is frustrating but it is what it is. Can’t wait for the NAM hour 84 play by plays! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Can’t wait for the NAM hour 84 play by plays! Give me hourly HRRR updates or give me death! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Which wave would that be? If it's a stronger first wave then perhaps that's not the one we want? I mean 2-4" is nice, but it would come at the expense of a stronger 2nd wave. Hmm...It’s the same one the OP GFS had that gave us the modest event on 20th. Looks decent . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Ukie 2-4" 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, mitchnick said: Ukie 2-4" What's the timing? 19th/20th or 21st/22nd? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Ukie 2-4"Yea that’s a similar progression to the GFS/euro camp. Probably see the cmc change tonight . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 What's the timing? 19th/20th or 21st/22nd?20th, same wave the euro and GFS have . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 7 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: What's the timing? 19th/20th or 21st/22nd? Sorry....driving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 what will Dr. no say now? currently everything looks disjointed across all guidance. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yea that’s a similar progression to the GFS/euro camp. Probably see the cmc change tonight . It did actually dig and was further out west than its 0z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 So far, CMC and Euro world's apart out west. Looks more like GFS, but further west with vort tho..so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Euro light event 2-4” mostly northwest of 95 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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