stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:14 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: It looks pretty good on Pivotal! Expand Colder than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2-4+" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 That Sunday night wave has really moved south quite a bit over the last several runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:15 PM, mitchnick said: Can we just hold this Gfs run for this ecent? Expand I'd take this run for sure. Cute lil 2-4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:13 PM, stormtracker said: So, it has some light frozen over us at 7pm Sunday, but doesn't look terribly organized Expand 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:15 PM, stormtracker said: ok, better moisture over the area 3z-6z Monday, but its a really broad area of low pressure to our east that races off. Not bad Expand On 1/13/2025 at 4:18 PM, psuhoffman said: Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 And before anyone screams about "Kuchera" I checked...the ratios are realistic. Actually slightly less than 10-1 along 95 and about 13-1 in the higher elevation areas further from the rain/snow line. This seems very reasonable. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 CMC and icon are still in the same camp of dragging the shortwave really far W and slower. Not saying they’re wrong, but idk. This is way different for Day 5-6.The GFS is more aligned with the EPS and Euro progression fwiw . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:21 PM, Heisy said: CMC and icon are still in the same camp of dragging the shortwave really far W and slower. Not saying they’re wrong, but idk. This is way different for Day 5-6. The GFS is more aligned with the EPS and Euro progression fwiw . Expand Wow they aren't even on the same planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:21 PM, Heisy said: CMC and icon are still in the same camp of dragging the shortwave really far W and slower. Not saying they’re wrong, but idk. This is way different for Day 5-6. The GFS is more aligned with the EPS and Euro progression fwiw . Expand CMC looks like it may be good for middle of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 looks slightly better at 198 compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:20 PM, psuhoffman said: And before anyone screams about "Kuchera" I checked...the ratios are realistic. Actually slightly less than 10-1 along 95 and about 13-1 in the higher elevation areas further from the rain/snow line. This seems very reasonable. CMC progression is still completely different. Sometimes it does stuff like this outside day 5-6, but man that’s pretty stark difference. CMC probably leads to a much larger event if that energy comes E after the N/S races ahead It would be a few days after the 20th though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 snowing new orleans, florida panhandle to NC at 207, lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:27 PM, Heisy said: CMC progression is still completely different. Sometimes it does stuff like this outside day 5-6, but man that’s pretty stark difference. CMC probably leads to a much larger event if that energy comes E after the N/S races ahead It would be a few days after the 20th though . Expand Yesterday this tendency (and duality of options) showed up in the EPS snow plots. There were smaller hits around Jan 20 and larger ones around the 21-22 for the members that had a slower more amplified solution with that wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:28 PM, Shad said: snowing new orleans, florida panhandle to NC at 207, lol Expand That's usually not a good omen for us, but I guess we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:28 PM, Shad said: snowing new orleans, florida panhandle to NC at 207, lol Expand There have been very few permutations among all the ensembles and op runs that have a hit from both the 20th and 22nd threats...They are linked. If more energy comes out with the wave on the 20th the 22nd is likely weaker and south. If more energy holds back at the tail of the trough, the 22nd becomes a more amplified wave and a threat but the 20th is likely nothing. It's likely one or the other. There is a narrow thread the needle balance of energy that could lead to two hits but its not the most likely outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Congrats OBX, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:32 PM, mitchnick said: That's usually not a good omen for us, but I guess we'll see Expand Yeah, thought the same. Trof may be positively tilted for it to get up to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Historic snowstorm for the deep south. We will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:34 PM, stormtracker said: Yeah, thought the same. Trof may be positively tilted for it to get up to us Expand TPV sitting in Ontario and Quebec is not going to let anything climb the coast. Need it either well west or east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 well at least Myrtle Beach gets a foot lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Am I looking at the wrong model? What hour yall at? Because on the CMC we get it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Gem faked us out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:32 PM, mitchnick said: That's usually not a good omen for us, but I guess we'll see Expand The GFS miss on the 22nd has me at 8 degrees while it's blizzarding on the NC coast. That usually doesn't happen. CMC is a hit and looks like a decent one for the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:36 PM, stormtracker said: Am I looking at the wrong model? What hour yall at? Expand Lol nice hit with a 2nd gasp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Yeah I’ll sell on the 1989 redux New Orleans to Charleston HECS, but we’ll see 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:37 PM, mitchnick said: Lol nice hit with a 2nd gasp Expand Goofy ass evolution 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:37 PM, mitchnick said: Lol nice hit with a 2nd gasp Expand Where's this foot at MB on the CMC. I'm so confused...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:38 PM, stormtracker said: Where's this foot at MB on the CMC. I'm so confused...lol Expand Talking about GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 4:38 PM, stormtracker said: Where's this foot at MB on the CMC. I'm so confused...lol Expand The historic storm for the south being referenced is on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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