BristowWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z Gfs moved the slp toward the coast for Sunday and hits west and north lightly. Wag is it continues south and east. Euro basically lost it at 0z. Hopefully something pops to track. It makes the week more fun. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Oy...that's one other thing I hope isn't a theme this year <_>Unfortunately that’s the risk in a nina. We’ll be fighting that NS all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 6z Gfs moved the slp toward the coast for Sunday and hits west and north lightly. Wag is it continues south and east. Euro basically lost it at 0z.As always, GFS will be last to figure things out. I thought the 6z euro spaced the wave out better to allow for something to develop. Tough to say for sure though. Euro Ai continues to stay consistent. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 25 minutes ago, Heisy said: As always, GFS will be last to figure things out. I thought the 6z euro spaced the wave out better to allow for something to develop. Tough to say for sure though. Euro Ai continues to stay consistent. . AI is weak, dry sauce for next weekend. Except for the Canadian, the advertised overrunning pattern appears off the table, so who knows what's next. 6z Gefs got cooler and is looking more like the Eps by keeping it cold thru the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 AI is weak, dry sauce for next weekend. Except for the Canadian, the advertised overrunning pattern appears off the table, so who knows what's next. 6z Gefs got cooler and is looking more like the Eps by keeping it cold thru the end of the run.6z euro Ai looks decent, I’d take it, it looks like the OP at 144 so safe to assume OP probably would have had something similar . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: AI is weak, dry sauce for next weekend. Except for the Canadian, the advertised overrunning pattern appears off the table, so who knows what's next. 6z Gefs got cooler and is looking more like the Eps by keeping it cold thru the end of the run. I mean for most of the last 8 years we would have killed to have a 10 day snow mean (days 6-16) look like these. But ok. 6 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Better positioned short wave, it slowed it down like the OP was going for at 144…. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I mean for most of the last 8 years we would have killed to have a 10 day snow mean (days 6-16) look like these. But ok. Exactly where did I say anything negative about the ensembles? Where? I said the overrunning pattern, except for the Canadian, "appears off the table." I didn't say that meant snow chances were bad. How could you have read that into my statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Exactly where did I say anything negative about the ensembles? Where? I said the overrunning pattern, except for the Canadian, "appears off the table." I didn't say that meant snow chances were bad. How could you have read that into my statement? My misunderstanding is because most of that snow on those ensembles I posted is from overrunning but you said “I guess the overrunning is off the table”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, psuhoffman said: My misunderstanding is because most of that snow on those ensembles I posted is from overrunning but you said “I guess the overrunning is off the table”. Our definition of overrunning patterns apparently differ, but the ensembles look fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 36 minutes ago, Heisy said: Better positioned short wave, it slowed it down like the OP was going for at 144… . I’m still flying blind. I don’t know what we’re looking for. You mean the vort out west over nrn cali needs to be spaced further west/slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 24 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Our definition of overrunning patterns apparently differ, but the ensembles look fine. Overrunning? What’s that? Been a while seen we had a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 48 minutes ago, Heisy said: Better positioned short wave, it slowed it down like the OP was going for at 144… . Pretty big changes. Lots to resolve yet. This is going to be one of those cases where models won’t have anything pinned down until inside 96 hours or so 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Euro has a decent shortwave trying to bust south from the arctic around the HR 168 - 174 timeframe. Wonder if that is gunking up anything closer to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I’m still flying blind. I don’t know what we’re looking for. You mean the vort out west over nrn cali needs to be spaced further west/slower? The gif map I posted is the actual shortwave that’s hitting us. Here is it earlier, look how the 6z run has a slower wave, better spacing . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 One change has been a trend towards one more round of -nao around day 7. This perhaps increases the chances of a bigger storm but it also means it would take a larger amplification in the flow to get a storm at all. This would apply to the Jan 20-22 period. The -epo TNH still looks to take over after that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: The gif map I posted is the actual shortwave that’s hitting us. Here is it earlier, look how the 6z run has a slower wave, better spacing . Got it. So around hours 138 or so I should know where this is going. Hopefully. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 And then here is the 6z euro vs 00z, 00z just had no spacing between the front and the wave turning the corner. 6z euro resembled the euro Ai. Still need some work but it’s close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 RE: ensemble snow means that @psuhoffman showed, I believe just before and around New Years we had similar totals advertised in the D7-14 period also when we didn’t have a defined wave yet (6th was one of a few scenarios). That worked out well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I love what we do here when a clearly inferior model shows something we like, we put up a phony preface "It's the _____ but..." just to let ourselves off the scientific hook and then share it anyway, lol Probably because it's data amongst data/model hungry geeks and it's about weather on a weather board? Doesn't mean it's a good model (it's not), but when used to compared it to actual good models and it's showing the same thing..... That would be my guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 15 minutes ago, Heisy said: And then here is the 6z euro vs 00z, 00z just had no spacing between the front and the wave turning the corner. 6z euro resembled the euro Ai. Still need some work but it’s close . 6z Euro AI is a nice hit for Monday. Solid Advisory event for us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 25 minutes ago, Heisy said: And then here is the 6z euro vs 00z, 00z just had no spacing between the front and the wave turning the corner. 6z euro resembled the euro Ai. Still need some work but it’s close . I think the Icon is doing what we want? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: RE: ensemble snow means that @psuhoffman showed, I believe just before and around New Years we had similar totals advertised in the D7-14 period also when we didn’t have a defined wave yet (6th was one of a few scenarios). That worked out well. It's always a little risky when guidance has a threat window but has yet to identify a singular wave as "the one". That mean looks great but its from 3 possible hits in a 7 day window, each of which is only like a 30% probability of being anything, which is totally fine and normal for that range, but our odds of an actual hit go up significantly once guidance locks into a singular synoptic threat and more than half the ensembles and op runs start showing a hit with that specific wave. We just aren't inside that range yet though. For now this is about as good as it gets IMO in terms of an identified window of opportunity. We still don't know if its the thing around the 20th or the 22nd or that thing way out around the 25th...but we have several shots in a defined window and just have to hope as the details come into focus one of them becomes a legit threat. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I think the Icon is doing what we want? Always a scary thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Always a scary thought. Prob gonna go too far S and E after 180, but it's there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 GFS is a little wester/slower with the vort so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 So, it has some light frozen over us at 7pm Sunday, but doesn't look terribly organized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: So, it has some light frozen over us at 7pm Sunday, but doesn't look terribly organized It looks pretty good on Pivotal! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 ok, better moisture over the area 3z-6z Monday, but its a really broad area of low pressure to our east that races off. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Can we just hold this Gfs run for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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