SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Just out on TT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011218&fh=186 Looks like a nice event. Would be another accumulating snow on the front end of an arctic dump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 18z GFS and 12z Euro look remarkably similar for the January 22 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 21 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Just out on TT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011218&fh=186 Don't see what yall like about the the AI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don't see what yall like about the the AI Supposedly has better 500mb verification numbers than operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 18z AI still has a storm for next Sunday, just develops a little differently and has precip heavier east. Doesn't look heavy west of I95, but probably a moderate event. Just too tough to figure with any real precision qpf amounts with the freebie maps. It does show a miss of the coast with the 2nd event that hit se va/md hardest, just like 6z and 12z. Better maps out on TT soon.Ignore the ai model precip maps. They are way too generous and overly widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 20 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Supposedly has better 500mb verification numbers than operational. Not really true, sorry edit: sometimes it performs better in days 1-5, equal in 6-10, same or worse in 11-15… lots of spikes and valleys and there’s no way to know when it’s right or way off. I’ll give it credit for the 1/6 storm which it did well on, but it did poorly for 1/11 at D6+ because it overpredicted the cold after the first storm. Best used as a comparison tool as a way to hold the operational “accountable”, or as another ensemble member. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: I wouldn’t be so quick to call it a return of the SE ridge because models try to default to canonical enso looks, which hasn’t been working out this year. Maybe it will in Feb for once. Exactly. Enso weighed heavily . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 54 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not really true, sorry edit: sometimes it performs better in days 1-5, equal in 6-10, same or worse in 11-15… lots of spikes and valleys and there’s no way to know when it’s right or way off. I’ll give it credit for the 1/6 storm which it did well on, but it did poorly for 1/11 at D6+ because it overpredicted the cold after the first storm. Best used as a comparison tool as a way to hold the operational “accountable”, or as another ensemble member. You don't have to apologize. I hate the effin Euro. Always overforecasts snow imby the run before start-time. Happened twice this year. It's hit or miss like every other model. That said, there are verification stats at this link down the bottom of the page prepared by the Euro folks. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]} Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You don't have to apologize. I hate the effin Euro. Always overforecasts snow imby the run before start-time. Happened twice this year. It's hit or miss like every other model. That said, there are verification stats at this link down the bottom of the page prepared by the Euro folks. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]} Yeah, their stats only compare the AIFS with the other AI models, but not the NWP models. I usually like to compare AI vs NWP of the same model family (Euro AI vs NWP, GFS AI vs NWP, etc). That’s where I got my assessment from. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 It’s the ICON but it looks loaded up at 180 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, LP08 said: It’s the ICON but it looks loaded up at 180 I love what we do here when a clearly inferior model shows something we like, we put up a phony preface "It's the _____ but..." just to let ourselves off the scientific hook and then share it anyway, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Gfs holding more back out west. A step in the right direction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Gem and Gfs are on different planets at 150hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 10 minutes ago, LP08 said: Gfs holding more back out west. A step in the right direction. To quote something I heard my first wintee here: "And there she cuts!" Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 It would be funny after days of everyone worrying about suppression it’s ends up a cutter. Lol But not surprising. In an epo driven pattern with no blocking a NW track is the way more likely fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, psuhoffman said: It would be funny after days of everyone worrying about suppression it’s ends up a cutter. Lol Would it though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It would be funny after days of everyone worrying about suppression it’s ends up a cutter. Lol But not surprising. In an epo driven pattern with no blocking a NW track is the way more likely fail. I can accept the fail path better It's just something annoying about missing south that I find annoying! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 CMC remarkably consistent. Rain as is for most of us, but this far out, I'd ride with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Don’t see a 1050mb high in Indiana very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: CMC remarkably consistent Oddly weak on qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Oddly weak on qpf NS wave over the top running interference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: NS wave over the top running interference Oy...that's one other thing I hope isn't a theme this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: With the H5 keeps changing with every single run, I'm kinda stoked. It's like playing the slots. I think we are going to get all sevens between now and the 16th. Our snow regime has produced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Ukie has a storm at around 162hrs that is slow to getvits act together and warm for cities. Nothing big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Gfs has the now "near" end of the run significant snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Gfs has the now "near" end of the run significant snowstorm. EPS has a bit of a signal there now too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 these ensembles often show a foot of snowfall out near the gulf stream. Somehow I don't think these snow accumulation algorithms account for the fact that the water temp is like 60 degrees out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 6z Gfs moved the slp toward the coast for Sunday and hits west and north lightly. Wag is it continues south and east. Euro basically lost it at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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