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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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Its actually encouraging to see hits to the south of us, because models are likely overdoing the cold at range. When it gets closer, it’ll likely correct a bit warmer, and with it, the track may pull north. 

And btw, we really should be looking at the ensembles instead of op runs beyond 168 hrs. 

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Its actually encouraging to see hits to the south of us, because models are likely overdoing the cold at range. When it gets closer, it’ll likely correct a bit warmer, and with it, the track may pull north. 
And btw, we really should be looking at the ensembles instead of op runs beyond 168 hrs. 

Came here to say this. Especially using clown maps from long range OPs
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49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Its actually encouraging to see hits to the south of us, because models are likely overdoing the cold at range. When it gets closer, it’ll likely correct a bit warmer, and with it, the track may pull north. 

And btw, we really should be looking at the ensembles instead of op runs beyond 168 hrs. 

I think some are imposing the trends from recent and current blocking regime onto the next epo tnh pattern. I get it. I do. But that’s a mistake. Things are much more likely to trend north in the coming pattern than they were with a -3 AO NAO block and a huge arse cutoff 50/50 spinning southwest of ideal. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think some are imposing the trends from recent and current blocking regime onto the next epo tnh pattern. I get it. I do. But that’s a mistake. Things are much more likely to trend north in the coming pattern than they were with a -3 AO NAO block and a huge arse cutoff 50/50 spinning southeast of ideal. 

Funny how today the GEPS/GEFS went crazy SER D14-16 and the EPS totally abandoned it and went back to more of a trof in the east

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15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Funny how today the GEPS/GEFS went crazy SER D14-16 and the EPS totally abandoned it and went back to more of a trof in the east

Euro weeklies do have the SER appearing starting the week of 1/27.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202501120000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501200000

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I wouldn’t be so quick to call it a return of the SE ridge because models try to default to canonical enso looks, which hasn’t been working out this year. Maybe it will in Feb for once. 

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2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I wouldn’t be so quick to call it a return of the SE ridge because models try to default to canonical enso looks, which hasn’t been working out this year. Maybe it will in Feb for once. 

I agree on the continued failed attempts, but I think AN comes around 2/10, just not that much AN.  

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18z AI still has a storm for next Sunday, just develops a little differently and has precip heavier east. Doesn't look heavy west of I95, but probably a moderate event. Just too tough to figure with any real precision qpf amounts with the freebie maps.

It does show a miss of the coast with the 2nd event that hit se va/md hardest, just like 6z and 12z.

Better maps out on TT soon.

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5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z AI still has a storm for next Sunday, just develops a little differently and has precip heavier east. Doesn't look heavy west of I95, but probably a moderate event. Just too tough to figure with any real precision qpf amounts with the freebie maps.

It does show a miss of the coast with the 2nd event that hit se va/md hardest, just like 6z and 12z.

Better maps out on TT soon.

Just out on TT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011218&fh=186

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