mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You are leaning cold push and crying and have made that fairly clear. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. BTW, anyone know what the latest pdo index is? .44 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Its actually encouraging to see hits to the south of us, because models are likely overdoing the cold at range. When it gets closer, it’ll likely correct a bit warmer, and with it, the track may pull north. And btw, we really should be looking at the ensembles instead of op runs beyond 168 hrs. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We’re gonna be fine. I hope. I think the first storm works out, but that 2nd storm wreaks of a miss to my SE. You're in better shape than me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 49 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's going to continue south in future runs because it's the Gfs. 18z vs 12z. It’s moving back to what it showed at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The only thing we have going for us is there's time. Time to cry or time to win is the question. Ya I’m sure it will change plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 WB 12Z EPS....lots of hits and misses....stay tuned! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: It’s moving back to what it showed at 6z Hopefully! Plus, Euro operational and AI show snow and Ukie has the storm with precip type still in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Hopefully! Plus, Euro operational and AI show snow and Ukie has the storm with precip type still in question. Let’s get the first chance & then go from there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Its actually encouraging to see hits to the south of us, because models are likely overdoing the cold at range. When it gets closer, it’ll likely correct a bit warmer, and with it, the track may pull north. And btw, we really should be looking at the ensembles instead of op runs beyond 168 hrs. Came here to say this. Especially using clown maps from long range OPs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Gefs don't support that big eastern/se storm on the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 49 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Its actually encouraging to see hits to the south of us, because models are likely overdoing the cold at range. When it gets closer, it’ll likely correct a bit warmer, and with it, the track may pull north. And btw, we really should be looking at the ensembles instead of op runs beyond 168 hrs. I think some are imposing the trends from recent and current blocking regime onto the next epo tnh pattern. I get it. I do. But that’s a mistake. Things are much more likely to trend north in the coming pattern than they were with a -3 AO NAO block and a huge arse cutoff 50/50 spinning southwest of ideal. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Gefs don't support that big eastern/se storm on the operational. Does the cold push overwhelm the pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I think some are imposing the trends from recent and current blocking regime onto the next epo tnh pattern. I get it. I do. But that’s a mistake. Things are much more likely to trend north in the coming pattern than they were with a -3 AO NAO block and a huge arse cutoff 50/50 spinning southeast of ideal. Funny how today the GEPS/GEFS went crazy SER D14-16 and the EPS totally abandoned it and went back to more of a trof in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Clearly, it's a lower Eastern Shore/Tidewater VA year, at least the models seem to think so. In a Niña, with SBY at over a foot, it's plausible too. Agree. I should have just sold my house in the Shenandoah Valley and moved there permanently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Does the cold push overwhelm the pattern? Didn't look. Busy cursing out my law school buddy in Salisbury. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Funny how today the GEPS/GEFS went crazy SER D14-16 and the EPS totally abandoned it and went back to more of a trof in the east Euro weeklies do have the SER appearing starting the week of 1/27. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202501120000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501200000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Euro weeklies do have the SER appearing starting the week of 1/27. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202501120000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501200000 I wouldn’t be so quick to call it a return of the SE ridge because models try to default to canonical enso looks, which hasn’t been working out this year. Maybe it will in Feb for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I wouldn’t be so quick to call it a return of the SE ridge because models try to default to canonical enso looks, which hasn’t been working out this year. Maybe it will in Feb for once. I agree on the continued failed attempts, but I think AN comes around 2/10, just not that much AN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 7 hours ago, mitchnick said: In addition to a decent snow, Canadian looks like this at day 10. Wow!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 39 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Funny how today the GEPS/GEFS went crazy SER D14-16 and the EPS totally abandoned it and went back to more of a trof in the east So do we trust the GEFS/GEPS or the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 7 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: So do we trust the GEFS/GEPS or the EPS? I'm not SnowGoose, but 18z GEFS did take a step back from 12z with the SER. It's there, but much weaker. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 24 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm not SnowGoose, but 18z GEFS did take a step back from 12z with the SER. It's there, but much weaker. 18z GEFS snow amount stepped back up too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z GEFS snow amount stepped back up too. Decent boost near the end. Gfs/Gefs seem convinced with a significant storm around the 1/27-28. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Decent boost near the end. Gfs/Gefs seem convinced with a significant storm around the 1/27-28. Storms & rumors of storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Decent boost near the end. Gfs/Gefs seem convinced with a significant storm around the 1/27-28. With the H5 keeps changing with every single run, I'm kinda stoked. It's like playing the slots. I think we are going to get all sevens between now and the 16th. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: With the H5 keeps changing with every single run, I'm kinda stoked. It's like playing the slots. I think we are going to get all sevens between now and the 16th. Let's Go!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: With the H5 keeps changing with every single run, I'm kinda stoked. It's like playing the slots. I think we are going to get all sevens between now and the 16th. SHHHHHH (don't say it out loud ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 18z AI still has a storm for next Sunday, just develops a little differently and has precip heavier east. Doesn't look heavy west of I95, but probably a moderate event. Just too tough to figure with any real precision qpf amounts with the freebie maps. It does show a miss of the coast with the 2nd event that hit se va/md hardest, just like 6z and 12z. Better maps out on TT soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z AI still has a storm for next Sunday, just develops a little differently and has precip heavier east. Doesn't look heavy west of I95, but probably a moderate event. Just too tough to figure with any real precision qpf amounts with the freebie maps. It does show a miss of the coast with the 2nd event that hit se va/md hardest, just like 6z and 12z. Better maps out on TT soon. Just out on TT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011218&fh=186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Looks like a solid 3-6” event on that run. Shortwave sharpened. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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