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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Clearly, it's a lower Eastern Shore/Tidewater VA year, at least the models seem to think so. In a Niña, with SBY at over a foot, it's plausible too. 

That's my only worry about this winter, tbh...especially after getting slightly fringed last week and it being better the further south you go. I wonder if we're a hair north for some of these things to reach us.

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Clearly, it's a lower Eastern Shore/Tidewater VA year, at least the models seem to think so. In a Niña, with SBY at over a foot, it's plausible too. 

That run made me sick lol 

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We need a love emoji reaction. Can we make that happen? The storm, the emoji reaction would be a cool bonus.

Once it’s inside 6 days lol. That run was a few ticks away from burying us with two events. All you can ask for is a chance. Most guidance is farther SE than the GFS showing for the 20th.


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3 minutes ago, Heisy said:


Once it’s inside 6 days lol. That run was a few ticks away from burying us with two events. All you can ask for is a chance. Most guidance is farther SE than the GFS showing for the 20th.


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Do you mean SE with the "main" low (that rains on us), or are you referring to what apparently might be a trailer that gives us some good snow?  I thought the general idea is that we'd get rain around the 19th and then possibly snow with a follow-up wave.  But I've only paid vague attention to the details here.

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17 minutes ago, Heisy said:


Once it’s inside 6 days lol. That run was a few ticks away from burying us with two events. All you can ask for is a chance. Most guidance is farther SE than the GFS showing for the 20th.


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We have fun in fantasy land even. Several big potentials coming up. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_51-1.png

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10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The only thing we have going for us is there's time. Time to cry or time to win is the question. 

You are leaning cold push and crying and have made that fairly clear. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

BTW, anyone know what the latest pdo index is?

 

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