January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[WesternFringe]

43 minutes ago, mappy said:

I hope so. Today was the first time I’ve even mentioned my total lol 

Yeah he said you don’t bring it up in every single (expletive) post, so he had no idea you were the lowest

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Wow the Euro and GFS are cold.  Even adjusting for the models overdoing the cold in the long run it’ll still be really cold.  You love to see it. 

[jayyy]

I would just have to laugh if I’d verified like this, thankfully it won’t cause next run will be completely different.
 

I honestly don’t get the point of posting 14 day clown maps.

[psuhoffman]

EPS continues to delay the retrogression at range. 

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS continues to delay the retrogression at range. 

we've seen the Pacific jet get stronger time and time again as we head into the medium range so the retrogression might just be overdone

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we've seen the Pacific jet get stronger time and time again as we head into the medium range so the retrogression might just be overdone

I wonder if that would actually push the pna ridge further east so instead of a west-central trough, it’ll be situated closer to the east. 

[Eskimo Joe]

I'm psyched. We have legit potential for something special. 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I wonder if that would actually push the pna ridge further east so instead of a west-central trough, it’ll be situated closer to the east. 

 

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1878092406022967591

Tomer had stated he thinks the trough axis was going to move West in time ( ie. Feb  ) and  we would experience retrogression, however now I am wondering with newer data does it stay situated closer to the East , as you mentioned.  

This would add to our window of potential snow events.  

Meanwhile Bamwx posted that the + TNH pattern may persist in Feb. 

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1878076865157476541

 

 

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

10 minutes ago, frd said:

 

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1878092406022967591

Tomer had stated he thinks the trough axis was going to move West in time ( ie. Feb  ) and  we would experience retrogression, however now I am wondering with newer data does it stay situated closer to the East , as you mentioned.  

This would add to our window of potential snow events.  

Meanwhile Bamwx posted that the + TNH pattern may persist in Feb. 

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1878076865157476541

 

 

 

I like those maps, but Bamwx is a fraud.

[mitchnick]

33 minutes ago, frd said:

 

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1878092406022967591

Tomer had stated he thinks the trough axis was going to move West in time ( ie. Feb  ) and  we would experience retrogression, however now I am wondering with newer data does it stay situated closer to the East , as you mentioned.  

This would add to our window of potential snow events.  

Meanwhile Bamwx posted that the + TNH pattern may persist in Feb. 

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1878076865157476541

 

 

 

The guy, Mike, on Bamwx does a nice job explaining things.

[mitchnick]

33 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I like those maps, but Bamwx is a fraud.

Why do you say that? I never listened to them until this year.

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Why do you say that? I never listened to them until this year.

While I wouldn’t paint them a fraud unless they outright steal other people’s work, they have a pattern of overhyping cold shots. Like posting an op or control run showing widespread -20/-30 departures at 10+ days out on social media, being too declarative in their forecast instead of showing comparisons, and everyone running with it, while ensembles show a more conservative departure. 

[Benjamn3]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Why do you say that? I never listened to them until this year.

Posting clown maps to social media trying to drum up clicks. Easy money and people are stupid, so I can’t say I blame them. 

[Ji]

EPS precip matrix over 15 days is awful

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

EPS precip matrix over 15 days is awful

Considering we're looking at little or nothing this week, which we've known for a while, it's not quite as bad as it looks.

[dallen7908]

If summing, remember to divide by 2 as these are 24-hour precipitation values for six-hour periods with every other one shown. 

[psuhoffman]

The EPS definitely shifted south and favors the Richmond area for the biggest threat around the 21-22. But it’s one run. The ggem is further north and 95 or even slightly NW is for target zone.  And it’s still far enough out that small shifts run to run shouldn’t be over reacted to. 

[snowfan]

2 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Wow the Euro and GFS are cold.  Even adjusting for the models overdoing the cold in the long run it’ll still be really cold.  You love to see it. 

Yeah, euro threw out some dumb cold.

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Yeah, euro threw out some dumb cold.

 

-30 in the Shenandoah valley!!!

[adelphi_sky]

40 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Yeah, euro threw out some dumb cold.

 

Raleigh, NC is -15 while we're 1. That sounds about right. 

[southmdwatcher]

Damn dude, Raleigh would be plus 1, but use your own glasses...thats one where Greensboro/Winston Salem would be 10 plus degrees colder. On a very long range model. Raleigh is at least 50miles east of that spot. Learn some geography!!

[stormtracker]

Another vastly different h5 map vs 12z already showing up on the 18z GFS.    Let's see what solution we get on the roulette wheel this time.

[Solution Man]

28 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Raleigh, NC is -15 while we're 1. That sounds about right. 

I hear you, that’s like around Winston Salem, but still

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Another vastly different h5 map vs 12z already showing up on the 18z GFS.    Let's see what solution we get on the roulette wheel this time.

[stormtracker]

GFS leaves something behind, but it can't seem to produce for th 20th.   Stuff running ahead is rain for the forum. Maybe a little action at the end as the cold air tries to flood in, but not much. Let's see whats next up to bat

[mitchnick]

It's going to continue south in future runs because it's the Gfs. 18z vs 12z.

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

Yeah, euro threw out some dumb cold.

 

LOL, well that should shatter some records.

[mitchnick]

What a tease on the Gfs at 225hrs.

[benjammin]

-31 in the Shenandoah Valley. I'll take the under on that.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Heisy]

Gotta love the GFS form a potential big one same time period that Euro had it today.




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