Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,689
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Ptpageza
    Newest Member
    Ptpageza
    Joined

January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, frd said:

Arriving from Siberia to your house soon.:shiver::snowman:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1878439902720753747

<The brutally cold arctic air mass that enters the CONUS a week from now originates over Siberia about 10 days earlier & starts out at -30C to -40C.>

 

GhGPIsAbEAAO0Qg.thumb.jpeg.17a258a7fa394b701be55b9ef7bfb00b.jpeg

 

GhGPIsFaoAAAE8P.thumb.jpeg.7b5de9ba98898045c889ad161d910a00.jpeg

 

 

 

GhGRHlrXwAIqRlu.jpeg.1523fb6f41b89e0dd729fe861f3981b1.jpeg

 

That will definitely pop the southeast ridge and a storm track right up the Eastern Seaboard just hope not too close and even west of us changes afoot! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I would just have to laugh if I’d verified like this, thankfully it won’t cause next run will be completely different.

 

IMG_8915.png

This is SE weenie approved.  I'll see myself to the door, thanks.  You guys will have the last laugh when I stare sadly out the window at cold rain while you shovel when it moves north.

  • Like 3
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

That will definitely pop the southeast ridge and a storm track right up the Eastern Seaboard just hope not too close and even west of us changes afoot! 

 

Should be interesting model runs in the days ahead,  and I look forward to cold smoke scenarios :mapsnow:

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Mongolia has kept it up and still is.  We were predicted to get frigid once before and we got quite cold instead so let’s see if this batch hits us right on.  It looks like rollover cold which puts Dakotas at -30 for lows and is modified by about 30 when it gets here but that would still be extremely cold here, highs 15-20 and lows 0 to 5 

 

Ouch that is a direct hit on Austin. I don't even want to think about how cold that would be, a reprise of Feb 2022 I hope not. We lost all our plants and I was hauling water like an Oklahoma Sooner for days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we've seen the Pacific jet get stronger time and time again as we head into the medium range so the retrogression might just be overdone

I wonder if that would actually push the pna ridge further east so instead of a west-central trough, it’ll be situated closer to the east. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I wonder if that would actually push the pna ridge further east so instead of a west-central trough, it’ll be situated closer to the east. 

 

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1878092406022967591

Tomer had stated he thinks the trough axis was going to move West in time ( ie. Feb  ) and  we would experience retrogression, however now I am wondering with newer data does it stay situated closer to the East , as you mentioned.  

This would add to our window of potential snow events.  

Meanwhile Bamwx posted that the + TNH pattern may persist in Feb. 

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1878076865157476541

 

 

 

GhBE4bIWcAA1IJg.png

GhBE4bGWgAALlQR.png

  • Like 1
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, frd said:

 

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1878092406022967591

Tomer had stated he thinks the trough axis was going to move West in time ( ie. Feb  ) and  we would experience retrogression, however now I am wondering with newer data does it stay situated closer to the East , as you mentioned.  

This would add to our window of potential snow events.  

Meanwhile Bamwx posted that the + TNH pattern may persist in Feb. 

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1878076865157476541

 

 

 

GhBE4bIWcAA1IJg.png

GhBE4bGWgAALlQR.png

I like those maps, but Bamwx is a fraud.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, frd said:

 

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1878092406022967591

Tomer had stated he thinks the trough axis was going to move West in time ( ie. Feb  ) and  we would experience retrogression, however now I am wondering with newer data does it stay situated closer to the East , as you mentioned.  

This would add to our window of potential snow events.  

Meanwhile Bamwx posted that the + TNH pattern may persist in Feb. 

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1878076865157476541

 

 

 

GhBE4bIWcAA1IJg.png

GhBE4bGWgAALlQR.png

The guy, Mike, on Bamwx does a nice job explaining things.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Why do you say that? I never listened to them until this year.

While I wouldn’t paint them a fraud unless they outright steal other people’s work, they have a pattern of overhyping cold shots. Like posting an op or control run showing widespread -20/-30 departures at 10+ days out on social media, being too declarative in their forecast instead of showing comparisons, and everyone running with it, while ensembles show a more conservative departure. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Why do you say that? I never listened to them until this year.

Posting clown maps to social media trying to drum up clicks. Easy money and people are stupid, so I can’t say I blame them. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The EPS definitely shifted south and favors the Richmond area for the biggest threat around the 21-22. But it’s one run. The ggem is further north and 95 or even slightly NW is for target zone.  And it’s still far enough out that small shifts run to run shouldn’t be over reacted to. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Wow the Euro and GFS are cold.  Even adjusting for the models overdoing the cold in the long run it’ll still be really cold.  You love to see it. 

Yeah, euro threw out some dumb cold.

 

IMG_1483.png

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 2
  • saywhat? 1
  • no 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...