Eskimo Joe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS and CMC h5 maps are just so completely different at around 120 and after. Kinda neat to see. And of course they keep changing with each run. There's gotta be a flush hit run coming at some point...right? 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Gfs just a bit different for the 19-20th lol. Could be a sign of big dog potential when the guidance is having a hard time getting a handle on things. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 EPO versus retrograding -NAO and PNA. Who wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 CMC and gfs well apart with the progression of things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Could be a sign of big dog potential when the guidance is having a hard time getting a handle on things. Probably a sign of us getting nothing as usual. lol. I want some smoke. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 hours ago, MDScienceTeacher said: One of my top 5 storms was in 2011 Big closed ull bowling ball with some of the craziest dynamic snowfalls we have ever seen. I got slammed with well over a foot of snow in less than 8 hours… Nothing sticks out for 2000… Paul Kocin spoke at Millersville AMS pre-2011. He said that you should never sleep on an intensifying surface low coming off the Appalachian Mts. They can give you tornadoes in the summer and a surprise snowfall in the winter. 2 hours ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Right! It was commutageddon .. lots of cars up and down the 95 corridor were stuck for hours.. some abandoned.. I remember going out with a shovel to help dig people out. My wife thought I was crazy. https://wtop.com/weather-news/2015/01/history-disastrous-snow-storms-d-c-area/ 80,000 power outages in 5 hours in Montgomery County, MD. Trees were coming down on police and fire apparatus while they were responding to calls. Roads could not be pre-treated because a small amount of rain fell during the day. That is my benchmark for what a "high impact" storm can deliver in the east coast megalopolis. 2 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Yeah, Commutageddon on Jan. 26, 2011. Also known as the "PSU Hoffman Storm" (@psuhoffman alluded to this above with his early call about that event...I even remember the thread for that event, it was labeled with his name!). I got 8" snow in about 5 hours from that, it was amazing...thunder snow even. It started as literal chunks of ice falling in the late afternoon that quickly turned into large flakes. I wouldn't exactly say that LWX "downplayed" the event so much. There was a sort of predecessor event in the pre-dawn and early morning hours that some areas did well in, prior to a lull, and then the main snow later. LWX as I recall actually upped the advisories in the area to winter storm warnings by late morning on the 26th, and even highlighted the potential commute issues (since it was to start right around then). I think most of the problem is that a lot of people figured it won't be too bad by the evening commute, so not many were sent home early. Or, they were sent home only a little early, but by then it was kind of too late...everyone was out on the roads. I know of a couple of people who lived a bit north of the DC metro area who were stuck on the roads until like midnight or 2AM! Jan 26, 2011 is in my Top 5 weather events of all time. I was in Lancaster at the time and remember how powerful the front end thump was impressive. Then we just snizzled all day before the afternoon thump came in hard right at sunset. Looking back at the after action reports in our work library, apparently OPM issued an early departure mandate, but it wasn't enforced my mid level managers. Everyone in DC proper was looking out their window and seeing drizzle thinking it would be a bust. It wasn't until the spouses started calling from home and relayed conditions in the suburbs getting so bad that everyone bailed. By then it was too late. That's why you see language now on PM early departure notices that say "managers must dismiss staff no later than X time". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Probably a sign of us getting nothing as usual. lol. I want some smoke. CMC loading up down south starting on the 21st 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, stormtracker said: CMC loading up down south starting on the 21st CMC looks great. Gfs brings everything together and doesn’t hold any back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: CMC looks great. Gfs brings everything together and doesn’t hold any back. Yeah, its a good run. looks about 6" for the forum attm ETA: There was still a lil more in the next panel..so like 6 to 8... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Remember the gfs kept showing historical blizzards for yesterday. Model is lost right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Yeah, its a good run. looks about 6" for the forum attm ETA: There was still a lil more in the next panel..so like 6 to 8...Nothing matters till Dr no runs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 In addition to a decent snow, Canadian looks like this at day 10. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Yeah, Commutageddon on Jan. 26, 2011. Also known as the "PSU Hoffman Storm" (@psuhoffman alluded to this above with his early call about that event...I even remember the thread for that event, it was labeled with his name!). I got 8" snow in about 5 hours from that, it was amazing...thunder snow even. It started as literal chunks of ice falling in the late afternoon that quickly turned into large flakes. I wouldn't exactly say that LWX "downplayed" the event so much. There was a sort of predecessor event in the pre-dawn and early morning hours that some areas did well in, prior to a lull, and then the main snow later. LWX as I recall actually upped the advisories in the area to winter storm warnings by late morning on the 26th, and even highlighted the potential commute issues (since it was to start right around then). I think most of the problem is that a lot of people figured it won't be too bad by the evening commute, so not many were sent home early. Or, they were sent home only a little early, but by then it was kind of too late...everyone was out on the roads. I know of a couple of people who lived a bit north of the DC metro area who were stuck on the roads until like midnight or 2AM! Great storm for sure! Remember the thread well and how PSU saw it coming many days away. I became a true PSU believer then! The Jeb walk with the kids and the thunder and lightning was the best. Reminded me of the blizzard of 87 with the thunder an lightning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I’m ok with the better models showing the better outcomes lol. The GFS seems to have fallen even more behind than it was after the ggem and euro made major core upgrades and then issued multiple updates to fine tune the new systems. We criticized the euro for its inconsistency after the initial core upgrade but subsequent fixes have made it significantly better and the gfs meanwhile doesn’t seem to have kept up in the last 5 years. The end result is the gfs is almost getting to the point of being relegated to “just for amusement” territory in my mind. Similar to the icon and jma. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 2 hours ago, mattie g said: Wouldn’t have figured you were pretty much at the bottom of the list this year since you don’t bring it up in every. f’ing. post. Excuse me? Pretty sure you’ve confused me with someone else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Gefs still have a reasonable signal for the 19th-20th fwiw. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: They forecasted almost exactly what happened. There were a few localized spots in MD that jacked and got a few inches over the range but overall they nailed it. And there was a statement out specifying 2” per hour rates during rush hour! People made really bad decisions and then looked for someone else to blame “why didn’t you stop me” which isn’t uncommon unfortunately I was in Seattle for the AMS meeting that week and recall that one of the lead CWG writers missed at least a half-day of the meeting because of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Almost looks like PD2 at the end of the Gfs run...almost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 59 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS and CMC h5 maps are just so completely different at around 120 and after. Kinda neat to see. And of course they keep changing with each run. There's gotta be a flush hit run coming at some point...right? Generally a sign of a major pattern change when we see this type of disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Ukie has a storm at 168hrs, but would be close on temps. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2025011212&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 15 minutes ago, mappy said: Excuse me? Pretty sure you’ve confused me with someone else. I think he was talking about someone else 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Almost looks like PD2 at the end of the Gfs run...almost. Almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m ok with the better models showing the better outcomes lol. The GFS seems to have fallen even more behind than it was after the ggem and euro made major core upgrades and then issued multiple updates to fine tune the new systems. We criticized the euro for its inconsistency after the initial core upgrade but subsequent fixes have made it significantly better and the gfs meanwhile doesn’t seem to have kept up in the last 5 years. The end result is the gfs is almost getting to the point of being relegated to “just for amusement” territory in my mind. Similar to the icon and jma. CMC/GGEM > GFS. I’ll beat the drum over and over even if no one hears me. Doesn’t mean I won’t just run with the snowiest outcome, but… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, frd said: Arriving from Siberia to your house soon. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1878439902720753747 Eric Webb @webberweather <The brutally cold arctic air mass that enters the CONUS a week from now originates over Siberia about 10 days earlier & starts out at -30C to -40C.> Mongolia has kept it up and still is. We were predicted to get frigid once before and we got quite cold instead so let’s see if this batch hits us right on. It looks like rollover cold which puts Dakotas at -30 for lows and is modified by about 30 when it gets here but that would still be extremely cold here, highs 15-20 and lows 0 to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Holy crap the end of that GFS run. It's fantasyland I know but good Lord! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: CMC/GGEM > GFS. I’ll beat the drum over and over even if no one hears me. Doesn’t mean I won’t just run with the snowiest outcome, but… CMC/GEPS still has a cold bias, but it’s still verifying better than the GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: CMC/GGEM > GFS. I’ll beat the drum over and over even if no one hears me. Doesn’t mean I won’t just run with the snowiest outcome, but… People point out every example of when the gem busted but the gfs is even worse. Not sure why the perception reality gap. ETA: plus examples of gem busts prior to their core upgrade ain’t really relevant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JVscotch Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Crazy cool how the NAO has continued to prove more negative as we get closer in time and now more blocking showing up around Greenland on all models so far for 12z. The last few days it has seemed like we were losing the NAO to get EPO ridging but now maybe some NAO help too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: CMC/GEPS still has a cold bias, but it’s still verifying better than the GFS. Gem has been very inconsistent in the longer range for a while, BUT not with this storm. That's 3 runs in a row showing the storm, twice as snow and once as rain. At that range, that's a very decent signal for something other than cold and dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Euro snow on 19th another storm brewing 22nd 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think he was talking about someone else I hope so. Today was the first time I’ve even mentioned my total lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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