MDScienceTeacher Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Think harder… You are right .. 2000 was a big January. Now I realize why I don’t remember it.. I was in the Caribbean most of the month on an Oceanographic research expedition. Getting off the plane at bwi with a beard and tan only to get a snow storm a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 16 minutes ago, Heisy said: 20th time frame is gaining more steam. I thought initially we’d be delayed a few days to wait for the cold air, but the ridge out west has trended East, and things have sped up a bit. . Yeah, we might need to try to score early as models have trended drier for the following week 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 35 minutes ago, Interstate said: Was this the one the LWX down played? Started as heavy rain and quickly turned to a paste bomb? Basically closed 83 in the city and people were walking home? Right! It was commutageddon .. lots of cars up and down the 95 corridor were stuck for hours.. some abandoned.. I remember going out with a shovel to help dig people out. My wife thought I was crazy. https://wtop.com/weather-news/2015/01/history-disastrous-snow-storms-d-c-area/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 One of my top 5 storms was in 2011 Big closed ull bowling ball with some of the craziest dynamic snowfalls we have ever seen. I got slammed with well over a foot of snow in less than 8 hours… Nothing sticks out for 2000… Jan ‘11 might have been my last legit thunder snow. I was living in downtown Bethesda and was on a jebber when lightning struck right overhead of me. Instant loud crack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 19 minutes ago, Heisy said: 20th time frame is gaining more steam. I thought initially we’d be delayed a few days to wait for the cold air, but the ridge out west has trended East, and things have sped up a bit. . For now, the way it looks on the EPS is the storm on the 19-20th may end as snow- but best signal for frozen is to our NW. The following wave for the 21-22 window is by far the stronger signal for frozen in our region. eta- the 6z GFS has the same idea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 42 minutes ago, Interstate said: Was this the one the LWX down played? Started as heavy rain and quickly turned to a paste bomb? Basically closed 83 in the city and people were walking home? Yeah, Commutageddon on Jan. 26, 2011. Also known as the "PSU Hoffman Storm" (@psuhoffman alluded to this above with his early call about that event...I even remember the thread for that event, it was labeled with his name!). I got 8" snow in about 5 hours from that, it was amazing...thunder snow even. It started as literal chunks of ice falling in the late afternoon that quickly turned into large flakes. I wouldn't exactly say that LWX "downplayed" the event so much. There was a sort of predecessor event in the pre-dawn and early morning hours that some areas did well in, prior to a lull, and then the main snow later. LWX as I recall actually upped the advisories in the area to winter storm warnings by late morning on the 26th, and even highlighted the potential commute issues (since it was to start right around then). I think most of the problem is that a lot of people figured it won't be too bad by the evening commute, so not many were sent home early. Or, they were sent home only a little early, but by then it was kind of too late...everyone was out on the roads. I know of a couple of people who lived a bit north of the DC metro area who were stuck on the roads until like midnight or 2AM! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: For now, the way it looks on the EPS is the storm on the 19-20th may end as snow- but best signal for frozen is to our NW. The following wave for the 21-22 window is by far the stronger signal for frozen in our region. It’s hard to differentiate the waves in the means because if timing differences but looking at the individuals it looks like the initial wave with the front on the 18-19 goes west then the follow up wave immediately after actually has shifted south some and on 0z eps the bullseye is right on us. Some members miss NW but an equal number miss SE also now. After that there is absolutely no consensus with a scattering of waves all over but it looks kinda dry actually for a few days. It looks like out at day 15 there are signs of another wave amplification coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s hard to differentiate the waves in the means because if timing differences but looking at the individuals it looks like the initial wave with the front on the 18-19 goes west then the follow up wave immediately after actually has shifted south some and on 0z eps the bullseye is right on us. Some members miss NW but an equal number miss SE also now. After that there is absolutely no consensus with a scattering of waves all over but it looks kinda dry actually for a few days. It looks like out at day 15 there are signs of another wave amplification coming. Agree. That's why at range I rely on the mean. Look at the 24 hr precip and temps and 24 hour snow and that gives the best indication of wave timing and ptype, and that's the basis of my earlier posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Agree. That's why at range I rely on the mean. Look at the 24 hr precip and temps and 24 hour snow and that gives the best indication of wave timing and ptype, and that's the basis of my earlier posts. One good sign is the 50% snowfall continues to increase also. It spiked up from 1.5” to 2.5” at DCA on the 0z EPS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 There continues to be ambiguity regarding where the MJO goes after its current traverse of the cold phases. The GEFS and GGEM favor more MC amplitude and less countermanding forcing in the IO or Pacific. The euro and CFS have a much weaker wave into the MC and more conflicting forcing signals. To the point I would even argue the forcing looks more favorable than not on the whole. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: @CAPE this chart kinda illustrates what I was seeing. Note how the bigger hits are around the 21-22. But it’s actually the same wave as the 19-20 that’s a smaller hit on other members. The more amplified solutions are slower. Which makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, mappy said: 5.1” here 10.3” season to date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 31 minutes ago, 87storms said: Jan ‘11 might have been my last legit thunder snow. I was living in downtown Bethesda and was on a jebber when lightning struck right overhead of me. Instant loud crack. Constant thundersnow for me in East Baltimore in that one. It also snowed over 6” in 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 22 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I wouldn't exactly say that LWX "downplayed" the event so much. They forecasted almost exactly what happened. There were a few localized spots in MD that jacked and got a few inches over the range but overall they nailed it. And there was a statement out specifying 2” per hour rates during rush hour! People made really bad decisions and then looked for someone else to blame “why didn’t you stop me” which isn’t uncommon unfortunately 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It reminds me of when I was chasing Nemo in CT and this guy in New Haven was trying to drive his 1980s Oldsmobile in 2 feet of snow! I helped dig him out of a snow bank only to watch him immediately drive right into the next one! Sometimes people just make bad decisions. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, mappy said: 5.1” here Wouldn’t have figured you were pretty much at the bottom of the list this year since you don’t bring it up in every. f’ing. post. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It reminds me of when I was chasing Nemo in CT and this guy in New Haven was trying to drive his 1980s Oldsmobile in 2 feet of snow! I helped dig him out of a snow bank only to watch him immediately drive right into the next one! Sometimes people just make bad decisions. Sometimes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Wouldn’t have figured you were pretty much at the bottom of the list this year since you don’t bring it up in every. f’ing. post. Did you know someone in the Shenandoah Valley only has 5” of snow? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They forecasted almost exactly what happened. There were a few localized spots in MD that jacked and got a few inches over the range but overall they nailed it. And there was a statement out specifying 2” per hour rates during rush hour! People made really bad decisions and then looked for someone else to blame “why didn’t you stop me” which isn’t uncommon unfortunately This comes to mind 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Did you know someone in the Shenandoah Valley only has 5” of snow? I didn’t, but I have heard that someone in Maryland only has 5.6”! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, mattie g said: I didn’t, but I have heard that someone in Maryland only has 5.6”! 5.1 get it right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE this chart kinda illustrates what I was seeing. Note how the bigger hits are around the 21-22. But it’s actually the same wave as the 19-20 that’s a smaller hit on other members. The more amplified solutions are slower. Which makes sense. There are 2 distinct potential events on the op runs though- the initial one centered on the 19th and another one a couple days later with the boundary further southeast. The ens means depict the same idea. I'm not spending time poring over each ens member to try to further interpret wave timing, whether there might be 2 or 3 waves, or how amped they are at this juncture. All that will become clearer in time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 5.1 get it right I only just found out about 5.1. It’s the 5.6 that I’ve heard lots about… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: There are 2 distinct potential events on the op runs though- the initial one centered on the 19th and another one a couple days later with the boundary further southeast. The ens means depict the same idea. I'm not spending time poring over each ens member to try to further interpret wave timing, whether there might be 2 or 3 waves, or how amped they are at this juncture. All that will become clearer in time. I think I might be tossing the thing you’re counting as the first one as simply the frontal passage. Yes there could be some snow either front or back end with that if it goes right but I don’t think it has much upside. I probably shouldn’t be discounting it. But I wasn’t even including that which lead to our discrepancy. Sorry. My bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Arriving from Siberia to your house soon. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1878439902720753747 Eric Webb @webberweather <The brutally cold arctic air mass that enters the CONUS a week from now originates over Siberia about 10 days earlier & starts out at -30C to -40C.> 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Yikes, what a a drop. Also, combine that - EPO with a favorable elongated PV, and it ups the odds of a cold powder storm later in the month. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 22 minutes ago, frd said: Arriving from Siberia to your house soon. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1878439902720753747 Eric Webb @webberweather <The brutally cold arctic air mass that enters the CONUS a week from now originates over Siberia about 10 days earlier & starts out at -30C to -40C.> that looks like an unsuccessful trick play 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Gfs just a bit different for the 19-20th lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GFS and CMC h5 maps are just so completely different at around 120 and after. Kinda neat to see. And of course they keep changing with each run. There's gotta be a flush hit run coming at some point...right? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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