stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Yeah, much improved H5...still not there yet tho..trof just too broad for now...but we take at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We'll have a better chance with the Canadian than Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: We'll have a better chance with the Canadian than Gfs. Not liking the look so far...but let's let it play out It's not terrible. Just not like 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, stormtracker said: Not liking the look so far...but let's let it play out Beats the avocado. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Beats the avocado. Hold on...I spoke too soon. I keep looking only at H5 and not sfc It's a little warmish so far. Nice slug of moisture surging from the southwest. ETA: Yeah, it's warm for us at the onset...but honestly, we know the thermal boundary gonna change a trillion times. I'm please with the Canadian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Lucky for us the overwhelming Barney cold look some of the op runs like to advertise at range almost never materializes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hold on...I spoke too soon. I keep looking only at H5 and not sfc Stronger trough out west on Canadian pumps the ridge a bit more than 12z, so it's warmer. But at 9 days, who cares. At least there's a storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Its pretty close to something good on the 21st. And the GEFS has been liking that window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Damn. GFS gonna be as cold as the Euro through its run. Nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 At least there's a storm on the Canadian, despite "minor" changes to its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This place is dead af. Euro has the possible thump as well. Not as cold as the GFS though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 29 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This place is dead af. Euro has the possible thump as well. Not as cold as the GFS though. Euro close on the 20-21. Is that what you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 31 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This place is dead af. Euro has the possible thump as well. Not as cold as the GFS though. Everyone is celebrating the Ravens win over the Squeelers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 06z GFS was good for the 19th... 23rd is suppressed... and then shows what could be a monster at 384 (28th) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 hours ago, mitchnick said: At least there's a storm on the Canadian, despite "minor" changes to its 12z run. That’s to be expected, it’s 200+ hours out… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 57 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z GFS was good for the 19th... 23rd is suppressed... and then shows what could be a monster at 384 (28th) Euro AI has a GFS like solution for the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Solid signal for the 21-22nd on the latest EPS and GEFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 0z Geps and Eps both show 4" snowfall all after day 7 and 6z Gefs is 4.5" all after day 7. That is really impressive from this range and for such a short period on ensembles. 6z Gfs operational is what you'd expect to see (finally) with its ensemble results. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Couple random thoughts 1) we want the cold. The trough is centered to our NW and there is no blocking. Any amplification that takes place will easily shift the baroclinic boundary north. There have been lots of examples of similar patters to this. Some were very snowy. Some not. And the difference in most cases was how much cold was in the pattern. Early Feb 2018 was an example of a mostly fail (we did get one 2-4” snow event but the rest were rain) and it’s because we were coming off a 10 day torch and there just wasn’t that much cold injected into the pattern and so each wave easily tracked north regardless of how far south the boundary might have been a day before. Think of 2015 in comparison when we had arctic air injected into the pattern and we managed a warning snowfall from a wave that tracked way to our west! Unless we want to be rooting for extremely weak waves we want a very cold airmass in place which will allow amplification to still have a chance to work out. 2) looking even further out I am becoming more convinced we also end this season with a bang in March regardless of what happens between now and then. when I made my seasonal forecast March was a wildcard. But as I start to adjust the analogs for how this season is actually going the years with a warm March have all fallen away and the ones where we had a cold snowy ending are left. We likely get some kind of relax period between now and then. How lucky we get during this upcoming -epo TNH pattern and then in March plus how long the relax in between is probably determines how good this winter goes down in terms of snowfall. But it’s been and probably will continue to be way more fun than I expected. Unfortunately snowfall is really fluky and doesn’t always align with pattern expectations. There are plenty of years you can look at the longer pattern and say “how did we only get that much snow 2011” or even “how did we get above normal snow in that 2000” If you didn’t know the dates and were asked which of those years above was the snowier winter you would never guess it right lol 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: how did we only get that much snow 2011” One of my top 5 storms was in 2011 Big closed ull bowling ball with some of the craziest dynamic snowfalls we have ever seen. I got slammed with well over a foot of snow in less than 8 hours… Nothing sticks out for 2000… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 15 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Nothing sticks out for 2000… Think harder… 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 16 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: One of my top 5 storms was in 2011 Big closed ull bowling ball with some of the craziest dynamic snowfalls we have ever seen. I got slammed with well over a foot of snow in less than 8 hours… Nothing sticks out for 2000… Was this the one the LWX down played? Started as heavy rain and quickly turned to a paste bomb? Basically closed 83 in the city and people were walking home? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Think harder… The great sneak attack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 11 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: 5.6” for me- yeah, I think you might be lowest (barely). 5.1” here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6z euro Ai sort of looks like the 6z GFSLight to moderate snow event for the 20th cities N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 My take a ways from the 0z and now 6z runs is the models are and have continued to show a potential snowstorm for the period January 19th-21st and more to follow I’m totally fine with that at this lead. Like psuhoffman and others have said good luck with the exact details beyond even day 4 because it will change often. I think we are in a buckle up phase of model watching and it seems likely to me that our cold dry pattern that we havd been enjoying (crap snow totals) up here in Southeastern Pennsylvania is about to change even if we dance a bit with the baroclinic zone or amplification to allow a northern shift or warm air to intrude it’s how we roll but the forementioned details we will not know until the earliest Thursday or do this week especially in a shifting pattern. looks like we are entering that South to southwesterly flow aloft regime gotta keep the cold air nearby and hope the southeast ridge directs the storms here and overwhelm us with warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, mappy said: 5.1” here Whoa - that's the one. Not sure that can be beat @T. August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Was this the one the LWX down played? Started as heavy rain and quickly turned to a paste bomb? Basically closed 83 in the city and people were walking home? Yes. It was a great storm. I made a lucky call on that one from like 7 days out. But it was a below avg snowfall winter despite a great pattern for long stretches. 2000 was an above avg snow year despite a shit the blinds pattern 90% of the time because we hit huge multiple times the one week we had any hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 20th time frame is gaining more steam. I thought initially we’d be delayed a few days to wait for the cold air, but the ridge out west has trended East, and things have sped up a bit. . 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts