ravensrule Posted Sunday at 06:57 AM Share Posted Sunday at 06:57 AM 31 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This place is dead af. Euro has the possible thump as well. Not as cold as the GFS though. Everyone is celebrating the Ravens win over the Squeelers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Sunday at 11:26 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:26 AM 06z GFS was good for the 19th... 23rd is suppressed... and then shows what could be a monster at 384 (28th) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Sunday at 11:58 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:58 AM 7 hours ago, mitchnick said: At least there's a storm on the Canadian, despite "minor" changes to its 12z run. That’s to be expected, it’s 200+ hours out… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Sunday at 12:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:23 PM 57 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z GFS was good for the 19th... 23rd is suppressed... and then shows what could be a monster at 384 (28th) Euro AI has a GFS like solution for the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 12:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:27 PM Solid signal for the 21-22nd on the latest EPS and GEFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 12:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:47 PM 0z Geps and Eps both show 4" snowfall all after day 7 and 6z Gefs is 4.5" all after day 7. That is really impressive from this range and for such a short period on ensembles. 6z Gfs operational is what you'd expect to see (finally) with its ensemble results. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 12:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:59 PM Couple random thoughts 1) we want the cold. The trough is centered to our NW and there is no blocking. Any amplification that takes place will easily shift the baroclinic boundary north. There have been lots of examples of similar patters to this. Some were very snowy. Some not. And the difference in most cases was how much cold was in the pattern. Early Feb 2018 was an example of a mostly fail (we did get one 2-4” snow event but the rest were rain) and it’s because we were coming off a 10 day torch and there just wasn’t that much cold injected into the pattern and so each wave easily tracked north regardless of how far south the boundary might have been a day before. Think of 2015 in comparison when we had arctic air injected into the pattern and we managed a warning snowfall from a wave that tracked way to our west! Unless we want to be rooting for extremely weak waves we want a very cold airmass in place which will allow amplification to still have a chance to work out. 2) looking even further out I am becoming more convinced we also end this season with a bang in March regardless of what happens between now and then. when I made my seasonal forecast March was a wildcard. But as I start to adjust the analogs for how this season is actually going the years with a warm March have all fallen away and the ones where we had a cold snowy ending are left. We likely get some kind of relax period between now and then. How lucky we get during this upcoming -epo TNH pattern and then in March plus how long the relax in between is probably determines how good this winter goes down in terms of snowfall. But it’s been and probably will continue to be way more fun than I expected. Unfortunately snowfall is really fluky and doesn’t always align with pattern expectations. There are plenty of years you can look at the longer pattern and say “how did we only get that much snow 2011” or even “how did we get above normal snow in that 2000” If you didn’t know the dates and were asked which of those years above was the snowier winter you would never guess it right lol 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted Sunday at 01:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:24 PM 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: how did we only get that much snow 2011” One of my top 5 storms was in 2011 Big closed ull bowling ball with some of the craziest dynamic snowfalls we have ever seen. I got slammed with well over a foot of snow in less than 8 hours… Nothing sticks out for 2000… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 01:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:40 PM 15 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Nothing sticks out for 2000… Think harder… 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Sunday at 01:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:43 PM 16 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: One of my top 5 storms was in 2011 Big closed ull bowling ball with some of the craziest dynamic snowfalls we have ever seen. I got slammed with well over a foot of snow in less than 8 hours… Nothing sticks out for 2000… Was this the one the LWX down played? Started as heavy rain and quickly turned to a paste bomb? Basically closed 83 in the city and people were walking home? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Sunday at 01:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:44 PM 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Think harder… The great sneak attack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted Sunday at 01:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:46 PM 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Sunday at 01:46 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 01:46 PM 11 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: 5.6” for me- yeah, I think you might be lowest (barely). 5.1” here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 01:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:47 PM 6z euro Ai sort of looks like the 6z GFSLight to moderate snow event for the 20th cities N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Sunday at 01:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:47 PM My take a ways from the 0z and now 6z runs is the models are and have continued to show a potential snowstorm for the period January 19th-21st and more to follow I’m totally fine with that at this lead. Like psuhoffman and others have said good luck with the exact details beyond even day 4 because it will change often. I think we are in a buckle up phase of model watching and it seems likely to me that our cold dry pattern that we havd been enjoying (crap snow totals) up here in Southeastern Pennsylvania is about to change even if we dance a bit with the baroclinic zone or amplification to allow a northern shift or warm air to intrude it’s how we roll but the forementioned details we will not know until the earliest Thursday or do this week especially in a shifting pattern. looks like we are entering that South to southwesterly flow aloft regime gotta keep the cold air nearby and hope the southeast ridge directs the storms here and overwhelm us with warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted Sunday at 01:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:48 PM 1 minute ago, mappy said: 5.1” here Whoa - that's the one. Not sure that can be beat @T. August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 01:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:50 PM 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Was this the one the LWX down played? Started as heavy rain and quickly turned to a paste bomb? Basically closed 83 in the city and people were walking home? Yes. It was a great storm. I made a lucky call on that one from like 7 days out. But it was a below avg snowfall winter despite a great pattern for long stretches. 2000 was an above avg snow year despite a shit the blinds pattern 90% of the time because we hit huge multiple times the one week we had any hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Sunday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:11 PM 20th time frame is gaining more steam. I thought initially we’d be delayed a few days to wait for the cold air, but the ridge out west has trended East, and things have sped up a bit. . 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted Sunday at 02:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:17 PM 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Think harder… You are right .. 2000 was a big January. Now I realize why I don’t remember it.. I was in the Caribbean most of the month on an Oceanographic research expedition. Getting off the plane at bwi with a beard and tan only to get a snow storm a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 02:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:23 PM 16 minutes ago, Heisy said: 20th time frame is gaining more steam. I thought initially we’d be delayed a few days to wait for the cold air, but the ridge out west has trended East, and things have sped up a bit. . Yeah, we might need to try to score early as models have trended drier for the following week 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted Sunday at 02:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:23 PM 35 minutes ago, Interstate said: Was this the one the LWX down played? Started as heavy rain and quickly turned to a paste bomb? Basically closed 83 in the city and people were walking home? Right! It was commutageddon .. lots of cars up and down the 95 corridor were stuck for hours.. some abandoned.. I remember going out with a shovel to help dig people out. My wife thought I was crazy. https://wtop.com/weather-news/2015/01/history-disastrous-snow-storms-d-c-area/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Sunday at 02:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:27 PM One of my top 5 storms was in 2011 Big closed ull bowling ball with some of the craziest dynamic snowfalls we have ever seen. I got slammed with well over a foot of snow in less than 8 hours… Nothing sticks out for 2000… Jan ‘11 might have been my last legit thunder snow. I was living in downtown Bethesda and was on a jebber when lightning struck right overhead of me. Instant loud crack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 02:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:27 PM 19 minutes ago, Heisy said: 20th time frame is gaining more steam. I thought initially we’d be delayed a few days to wait for the cold air, but the ridge out west has trended East, and things have sped up a bit. . For now, the way it looks on the EPS is the storm on the 19-20th may end as snow- but best signal for frozen is to our NW. The following wave for the 21-22 window is by far the stronger signal for frozen in our region. eta- the 6z GFS has the same idea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Sunday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:34 PM 42 minutes ago, Interstate said: Was this the one the LWX down played? Started as heavy rain and quickly turned to a paste bomb? Basically closed 83 in the city and people were walking home? Yeah, Commutageddon on Jan. 26, 2011. Also known as the "PSU Hoffman Storm" (@psuhoffman alluded to this above with his early call about that event...I even remember the thread for that event, it was labeled with his name!). I got 8" snow in about 5 hours from that, it was amazing...thunder snow even. It started as literal chunks of ice falling in the late afternoon that quickly turned into large flakes. I wouldn't exactly say that LWX "downplayed" the event so much. There was a sort of predecessor event in the pre-dawn and early morning hours that some areas did well in, prior to a lull, and then the main snow later. LWX as I recall actually upped the advisories in the area to winter storm warnings by late morning on the 26th, and even highlighted the potential commute issues (since it was to start right around then). I think most of the problem is that a lot of people figured it won't be too bad by the evening commute, so not many were sent home early. Or, they were sent home only a little early, but by then it was kind of too late...everyone was out on the roads. I know of a couple of people who lived a bit north of the DC metro area who were stuck on the roads until like midnight or 2AM! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:34 PM 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: For now, the way it looks on the EPS is the storm on the 19-20th may end as snow- but best signal for frozen is to our NW. The following wave for the 21-22 window is by far the stronger signal for frozen in our region. It’s hard to differentiate the waves in the means because if timing differences but looking at the individuals it looks like the initial wave with the front on the 18-19 goes west then the follow up wave immediately after actually has shifted south some and on 0z eps the bullseye is right on us. Some members miss NW but an equal number miss SE also now. After that there is absolutely no consensus with a scattering of waves all over but it looks kinda dry actually for a few days. It looks like out at day 15 there are signs of another wave amplification coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:41 PM 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s hard to differentiate the waves in the means because if timing differences but looking at the individuals it looks like the initial wave with the front on the 18-19 goes west then the follow up wave immediately after actually has shifted south some and on 0z eps the bullseye is right on us. Some members miss NW but an equal number miss SE also now. After that there is absolutely no consensus with a scattering of waves all over but it looks kinda dry actually for a few days. It looks like out at day 15 there are signs of another wave amplification coming. Agree. That's why at range I rely on the mean. Look at the 24 hr precip and temps and 24 hour snow and that gives the best indication of wave timing and ptype, and that's the basis of my earlier posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:46 PM 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Agree. That's why at range I rely on the mean. Look at the 24 hr precip and temps and 24 hour snow and that gives the best indication of wave timing and ptype, and that's the basis of my earlier posts. One good sign is the 50% snowfall continues to increase also. It spiked up from 1.5” to 2.5” at DCA on the 0z EPS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Sunday at 02:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:49 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:51 PM There continues to be ambiguity regarding where the MJO goes after its current traverse of the cold phases. The GEFS and GGEM favor more MC amplitude and less countermanding forcing in the IO or Pacific. The euro and CFS have a much weaker wave into the MC and more conflicting forcing signals. To the point I would even argue the forcing looks more favorable than not on the whole. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 02:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:54 PM 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: @CAPE this chart kinda illustrates what I was seeing. Note how the bigger hits are around the 21-22. But it’s actually the same wave as the 19-20 that’s a smaller hit on other members. The more amplified solutions are slower. Which makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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