Eskimo Joe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs lit up light a Xmas tree day 10-15 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Good, because the 18z EuroAI removed all chances of snow and now looks like the 18z Gfs operational by pushing the boundary off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Good, because the 18z EuroAI removed all chances of snow and now looks like the 18z Gfs operational by pushing the boundary off the coast. Has the EuroAI even been remotely correct this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: 6.3" on the season. Somehow I don’t buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Has the EuroAI even been remotely correct this winter? Yes, but like all the rest, is not perfect. Heisey seems to follow it closer than I do and he believes it's done very well. Past 240 hrs, imho it's no better than any of the ensembles. But you know how it goes, they all have hot hands and cold ones, but never know which it is until the forecast period has past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 27 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Good, because the 18z EuroAI removed all chances of snow and now looks like the 18z Gfs operational by pushing the boundary off the coast. Dude…you need to stop with this. You’ve been at this long enough to know that anything past 5-7 days is prone to huge swings, especially in a non-blocky pattern! We're going to have plenty of chances coming up over the next month, and we won’t have confidence in most of them more than 3-4 days out. Let’s keep an eye on things but not invest one way or another! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Has the EuroAI even been remotely correct this winter?It’s been a terrible model all season. Extremely unreliable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 39 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Good, because the 18z EuroAI removed all chances of snow and now looks like the 18z Gfs operational by pushing the boundary off the coast. It looked like it was about to smoke us day 15. I have no faith in any one wave. There is absolutely no way guidance will pin down the details of any of those discreet boundary waves past day 5 at best. I have more optimism when you take the whole day 9-16 period that we have a good chance one of the likely waves within that period has a decent chance here. If you are pinning your hopes totally on the first follow up wave around the 20th that’s more likely to fail. My optimism is that one of the waves in the whole pattern coming up will get us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: Dude…you need to stop with this. You’ve been at this long enough to know that anything past 5-7 days is prone to huge swings, especially in a non-blocky pattern! We're going to have plenty of chances coming up over the next month, and we won’t have confidence in most of them more than 3-4 days out. Let’s keep an eye on things but not invest one way or another! This 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Ji said: It’s been a terrible model all season. Extremely unreliable This. I don’t even pay attention to it. Anyway, what are we rooting for again? More vort held back or something or other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anyway, what are we rooting for again? This 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: This Bet. But I meant before that. Like 180 range. I’ll figure it out. Just haven’t been paying attention closely since this is in fantasy land still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 31 minutes ago, nj2va said: Somehow I don’t buy that. Why is that ? The I-81 crew hasn’t had a lot of snow so far. I’m at 8” but I benefitted from a local jack on 12/15. I can certainly see Stephens City being at 6”. Poolz in Boonsboro is at 6.75” and Chris78 is around 7” up in Smithsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 An AI based model flip flops a week out and suddenly we’ve got cliff jumpers. If the models still show that on Thursday then you can take the whining to the panic room. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 hours ago, clskinsfan said: How is that possible? I am about double that. Is this your ruler? i've had 7.5" of snow so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 40 minutes ago, mattie g said: Dude…you need to stop with this. You’ve been at this long enough to know that anything past 5-7 days is prone to huge swings, especially in a non-blocky pattern! We're going to have plenty of chances coming up over the next month, and we won’t have confidence in most of them more than 3-4 days out. Let’s keep an eye on things but not invest one way or another! Look, I know how the game is played. Point out nothing but positive, and everybody is happy. Point out that there are no guarantees and there are ways to lose, and you're the goat. So what? All options are on the table at this point, including success and failure of the ensembles. I'm as hungry as anyone else for snow, but ignoring credible scenarios that could results in failure has always been part of the discussion and just end in more disappointment should they occur if not discussed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Wxtrix said: i've had 7.5" of snow so far this winter. I get that. But you are north of me. Which has had less so far this winter. He is south. Not to send this thread into a complete tailspin. GFS still has the little event on Thursday/Friday. Still needs to be watched. But looks to favor your area more than mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Hmm GFS H5 is vastly different from 18z already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It looked like it was about to smoke us day 15. I have no faith in any one wave. There is absolutely no way guidance will pin down the details of any of those discreet boundary waves past day 5 at best. I have more optimism when you take the whole day 9-16 period that we have a good chance one of the likely waves within that period has a decent chance here. If you are pinning your hopes totally on the first follow up wave around the 20th that’s more likely to fail. My optimism is that one of the waves in the whole pattern coming up will get us. Like I said earlier, I believe we need the ridge from the Atlantic into the coast. Everything that I've seen that gives us snow has that. I believe without that blocking ridge, the risk of sliding to the east or south is great. It's pretty much that simple but it is definitely too early to know. Reporting model runs, whatever they may show, is something we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We might need a flizzard/snow squall redux thread for mid week. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: We might need a flizzard/snow squall redux thread for mid week. Yes the signal has been there for a couple of days. Measurable is not off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Somehow I don’t buy that. Im pretty sure an engineer knows how to operate a scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GFS also has a possible thumper for next weekend. Volatile period is incoming. We will have plenty of chances to track over the next few weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: GFS also has a possible thumper for next weekend. Volatile period is incoming. We will have plenty of chances to track over the next few weeks. It does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Somehow I don’t buy that. He lives in a a rain shadow. A precip killing, dry downsloping hole. I can buy it. Probably does well with big wrapped up coastals with easterly flow when I'm getting rain and sleet. 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It does? For me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 So, not sure of the outcome, but I can't be mad at the GFS h5 by 200 at this point. I would think it's improved vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, clskinsfan said: For me It does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It does? Yes it does. A week out I am not really caring about CAD temps. But the signal IS there. Again. FOR ME. And of course snow is an IMBY game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The damn avocado is back on the 0z GFS. It loves that shit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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