mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: I won't lose any sleep over the GFS op 10 days out, which is really the beginning of the next period of interest. The GEFS has looked pretty promising, and even the op has been close in that window on some recent runs. But the 12z Gefs were pretty cold. They pushed the boundary off the coast at 240hrs and didn't have the overrunning. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=850t_anom-mean&rh=2025011112&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Master baster. He knows how to handle a big bird? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 So the progression of things is starting to become more clear. Northern stream is cooperating. However, the wave (in my gif) here on the GFS near 4 corners we need it to be stronger and a bit slower than 18z is showing.Future runs root for more of a cmc type with that wave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Heisy said: So the progression of things is starting to become more clear. Northern stream is cooperating. However, the wave (in my gif) here on the GFS near 4 corners we need it to be stronger and a bit slower than 18z is showing. Future runs root for more of a cmc type with that wave . It'll be next weekend at this time before we have a better handle, and probably won't have it nailed down by then either. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 @mitchnick the flow doesn’t look suppressive. The issue is the gfs has absolutely nothing in terms of energy in the southern branch come along after the cold front clears. Ya if we got 5-7 days with the boundary south of us and the trough elongated SW to NE centered to our NW but absolutely no waves come along to take advantage we will fail. But that’s not suppression necessarily and more importantly I don’t trust guidance to see that at range. It wouldn’t take much. Remember how many of those waves in 2014 and 2015 weren’t a thought until inside 100 hours. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: It’s funny that some seemed more “optimistic” the last several years when we were stuck in absolutely hopeless situations. I’d see these posts trying to polish the turd we’d been handed. I was like “what are you looking at this is crap and we have no hope” and they would say I was being a deb. Now we have a legit good pattern with a real chance to have a good season and many are now more pessimistic than me. WTF is going on? Well, the legit good pattern has led me to 6" of snow halfway through MET winter, so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 [mention=821]mitchnick[/mention] the flow doesn’t look suppressive. The issue is the gfs has absolutely nothing in terms of energy in the southern branch come along after the cold front clears. Ya if we got 5-7 days with the boundary south of us and the trough elongated SW to NE centered to our NW but absolutely no waves come along to take advantage we will fail. But that’s not suppression necessarily and more importantly I don’t trust guidance to see that at range. It wouldn’t take much. Remember how many of those waves in 2014 and 2015 weren’t a thought until inside 100 hours. Yeah it’s not a suppression issue it’s a spacing issue on the gfs, but like you said we’re way out in time currently for the potential time period. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Well, the legit good pattern has led me to 6" of snow halfway through MET winter, so.... We’ve only been in a good pattern for a little over a week. I was never excited by anything before that. And a good pattern doesn’t guarantee we get a ton of snow. It just means we have a chance. I was just wondering why some seemed to be defiantly more optimistic when we were in totally hopeless no chance forget about it situations over the last few years then they are now in a pattern with a 5x better chance of producing meaningful snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @mitchnick the flow doesn’t look suppressive. The issue is the gfs has absolutely nothing in terms of energy in the southern branch come along after the cold front clears. Ya if we got 5-7 days with the boundary south of us and the trough elongated SW to NE centered to our NW but absolutely no waves come along to take advantage we will fail. But that’s not suppression necessarily and more importantly I don’t trust guidance to see that at range. It wouldn’t take much. Remember how many of those waves in 2014 and 2015 weren’t a thought until inside 100 hours. You may be right, but I also mentioned the boundary was pushed off the coast. Comparing the 18z Gefs to 12z Geps and you can see on the Geps the ridge nosing west onto the eastern seaboard. Eps looks very similar to Geps. That's my point, whether calling it overwhelmingly cold or pushing the boundary too far off the coast is irrelevant to my point really. Gfs/Gefs, if correct, will not get us to a result like the other 2 suites imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Well, the legit good pattern has led me to 6" of snow halfway through MET winter, so.... How is that possible? I am about double that. Is this your ruler? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You may be right, but I also mentioned the boundary was pushed off the coast. Comparing the 18z Gefs to 12z Geps and you can see on the Geps the ridge nosing west onto the eastern seaboard. Eps looks very similar to Geps. That's my point, whether calling it overwhelmingly cold or pushing the boundary too far off the coast is irrelevant to my point really. Gfs/Gefs, if correct, will not get us to a result like the other 2 suites imho. You’re right but there is nothing to suppress the boundary. If any kind of meaningful wave comes among the boundary will push north ahead of it. We need it down there with no block if we want any kind of amplification to work out imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @mitchnick the flow doesn’t look suppressive. The issue is the gfs has absolutely nothing in terms of energy in the southern branch come along after the cold front clears. Ya if we got 5-7 days with the boundary south of us and the trough elongated SW to NE centered to our NW but absolutely no waves come along to take advantage we will fail. But that’s not suppression necessarily and more importantly I don’t trust guidance to see that at range. It wouldn’t take much. Remember how many of those waves in 2014 and 2015 weren’t a thought until inside 100 hours. This is when the term "happy hour" started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: You’re right but there is nothing to suppress the boundary. If any kind of meaningful wave comes among the boundary will push north ahead of it. We need it down there with no block if we want any kind of amplification to work out imo. I admit this is all a waste of time (lol), but imho if you don't have that ridging you're just going to have a storm too far off the coast. Fortunately, all the modeling will change enough come 0z that we'll never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: How is that possible? I am about double that. Is this your ruler? 6.3" on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: 6.3" on the season. My snowpack is deeper than that right now. Thank god you moved out of my backyard. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 GEFS around day 10. Not as good a look as the GEPS and EPS but I'd take my chances with that . 850s and 2M temps are plenty cold with some room to spare. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 30 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Well, the legit good pattern has led me to 6" of snow halfway through MET winter, so.... We are at about 30% of our average snowfall climo by this date. The other 70% typically falls after January 15. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, WVclimo said: We are at about 30% of our average snowfall climo by this date. I am at 37% right now. With a pattern that could be epic still to come. I have nothing to complain about at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, clskinsfan said: I am at 37% right now. With a pattern that could be epic still to come. I have nothing to complain about at all. I phrased that all wrong lol. What I meant to say is that only 30% of our snowfall average comes before January 15. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: I phrased that all wrong lol. What I meant to say is that only 30% of our snowfall average comes before January 15. Which means I am well above average at his point. Can not complain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6.3" on the season.Could end up just being average which is better than the non-existent winters we’ve had every other year it seems since 2016. Those are the issues more so than the “median” years which balance out the occasional hecs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 24 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: 6.3" on the season. you measuring under your deck umbrella bro? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I phrased that all wrong lol. What I meant to say is that only 30% of our snowfall average comes before January 15. I know. Just stating that this has not been a particularly good start to winter for a good chunk of the sub as a reason for the pessimism that PSU noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I know. Just stating that this has not been a particularly good start to winter for a good chunk of the sub as a reason for the pessimism that PSU noted. I’m nowhere geographically close to you, but I’m at 5.4” for the season lol. Gotta be the lowest of the subforum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: Ain’t losing sleep over the gfs 3 days out. Where is my blizzard it had for last night/today? It had a blizzard for this sub for like 1.25 runs. The rest of the time it had essentially the same event that transpired. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Gefs lit up light a Xmas tree day 10-15 19 1 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Gefs lit up light a Xmas tree day 10-15Can see why here, lot of members must be separating the waves, leaving energy behind like cmc…. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DraydenWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 hours ago, WesternFringe said: 100% disagree. My family will remember this week forever. 3 rounds of snow totaling 11” and still haven’t gone above freezing since Sunday. The kids got a whole week off from school, as did my wife and I since we both teach. Sledding, fires, plowing snow, movies, blowing snow, family dinners, atv rides, jebwalks, 5° nights, etc. This area in general, and my family specifically, will remember this week in perpetuity. That’s what it’s all about. That’s why most of us are here, whether we admitted or not. Thank you for that. Saw a lot of people enjoying the weather weather this week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: MJO = Maybe it's Just Over? SSW = Stupid Shitty Winter! I know what the mjo is but I often wonder if the mjo is correlated with the monsoon in tropical regions. In otherwords, do monsoons happen in an area when the mjo is in a certain phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, T. August said: I’m nowhere geographically close to you, but I’m at 5.4” for the season lol. Gotta be the lowest of the subforum. 5.6” for me- yeah, I think you might be lowest (barely). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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