January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Deck Pic]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It was even worse for my area and Baltimore. We didn’t even get close. The last year most of our area actually hit snow climo was 2016!  We’ve had some years since where’s a localized area within our sub got lucky with one storm and got close.

Didn’t you do ok in 20-21.  I had 7”.  But my cabin in WV had around 30” for winter 

[Maestrobjwa]

22 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

As soon as I open a medium range thread and see MJO discussion, I know there is nothing coming up. 

Well in this case it didn't necessarily mean that--but rather a passing note of a positive development cold-wise in that area 

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Didn’t you do ok in 20-21.  I had 7”.  But my cabin in WV had around 30” for winter 

Yeah, it was decent up in Hanover with around 32-34" I  believe. I'm less than 10 miles north of him.

[anotherman]

Yeah, it was decent up in Hanover with around 32-34" I  believe. I'm less than 10 miles north of him.

‘20-‘21 featured two 10”+ storms in York County, PA, but if I remember correctly the cutoff was brutal for both of them.

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s funny that some seemed more “optimistic” the last several years when we were stuck in absolutely hopeless situations. I’d see these posts trying to polish the turd we’d been handed.  I was like “what are you looking at this is crap and we have no hope” and they would say I was being a deb.
 

Now we have a legit good pattern with a real chance to have a good season and many are now more pessimistic than me. WTF is going on?  

They got burned one too many times so now they can't properly enjoy a great pattern because they'll always expect a rug pull.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, anotherman said:

‘20-‘21 features two 10”+ storms in York County, PA, but if I remember correctly the cutoff was brutal for both of them.

Yep. Mid December and January 31/February 1. Snow on the ground entire month of February with like 4 events.

[CAPE]

I see a couple sneaky 'flizzard' chances this week with some upper level energy moving through in a generally cold/dry period. Wed and again early Friday are worth watching.

[Bob Chill]

45 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

As soon as I open a medium range thread and see MJO discussion, I know there is nothing coming up. 

MJO = Maybe it's Just Over?

SSW = Stupid Shitty Winter!

 

 

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I see a couple sneaky 'flizzard' chances this week with some upper level energy moving through in a generally cold/dry period. Wed and again early Friday are worth watching.

May as well since Gfs continues to overwhelm the pattern with cold.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, mitchnick said:

May as well since Gfs continues to overwhelming the pattern with cold.

GFS playing the role of Dr. No for now...

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

May as well since Gfs continues to overwhelming the pattern with cold.

But when I looked at my point and click 10 day I definitely don't see any overwhelming cold. I guess overwhelming high pressure is the culprit. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

May as well since Gfs continues to overwhelming the pattern with cold.

I won't lose any sleep over the GFS op 10 days out, which is really the beginning of the next period of interest. The GEFS has looked pretty promising, and even the op has been close in that window on some recent runs.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

But when I looked at my point and click 10 day I definitely don't see any overwhelming cold. I guess overwhelming high pressure is the culprit. 

I was referring to the day 10 period.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2025011118&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I won't lose any sleep over the GFS op 10 days out, which is really the beginning of the next period of interest. The GEFS has looked pretty promising, and even the op has been close in that window on some recent runs.

Gfs used to have that bias big time but that seemed to have been corrected.  But as long as the ensembles look good, I'll just sit tight.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

But when I looked at my point and click 10 day I definitely don't see any overwhelming cold. I guess overwhelming high pressure is the culprit. 

There wont likely be any lol. Op runs at range- esp the GFS- tend to do this when there is a modeled pattern that supports colder than avg temps. That's why we call it guidance- not to be taken verbatim.

[TSSN+]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I won't lose any sleep over the GFS op 10 days out, which is really the beginning of the next period of interest. The GEFS has looked pretty promising, and even the op has been close in that window on some recent runs.

Ain’t losing sleep over the gfs 3 days out. Where is my blizzard it had for last night/today? 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, MountainGeek said:

Didn't you calculate at some point how much snow we'd need to get just to break even on keeping climo from declining over the 20-year average? I think the N/W areas probably need something like 150" this year just to get back to even.....

Yes but I stopped when it got ridiculous. At this point our 30 year snow mean will reduce again at the end of the decade unless we average some crazy stupid amount the rest of the way. We would need like two 2010s and a 2014 to save us. Not gonna happen. 

1 hour ago, stormy said:

I surpassed snow climo in 21-22 with 28.50 inches. The relentless harp about lack of snow and warming is amusing....................   I guess, that's what makes the world go around.....................

 

1 hour ago, Deck Pic said:

I was focused on mby like we all are. Heh. We go through droughts and heaters unfortunately. I remember 12-13 and maybe 13-14. When the Westminster guys would clean up and I’d get 0.5”

 

 

1 hour ago, Deck Pic said:

Didn’t you do ok in 20-21.  I had 7”.  But my cabin in WV had around 30” for winter 

Yes I did great in 2021 but that was the opposite of what you’re talking about in 2022 or 2019. It was a localized thing, in 2021 it was my area and the extreme NW parts of our sub. But I would never call that a good winter or above climo for “us” I just got lucky locally. 
 

I differentiate winters where there is a large above avg snowfall zone v ones where most of the east at and near our latitude is below avg with just a lucky pocket or two of near or slightly above avg snow from a lucky hit on one or two storms.  2019 and 2022 weren’t snowy winters in the east. Some limited parts of our region got lucky but on the whole they were not close to years like 2010, 2014, 2015… they weren’t as bad as years like 2017, 2020, 2023 but if your high water mark winters are just blah where a very small area might get close to climo at best if they get lucky…that’s not good. 
 

I think we are just looking at it different. We both know this. I was just making a different point is all. It’s been a long time since we had a widespread at or above climo winter. 

[ravensrule]

On 1/10/2025 at 5:11 PM, psuhoffman said:

It’s ok. Ji is a master baiter. 

Master baster. 

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I won't lose any sleep over the GFS op 10 days out, which is really the beginning of the next period of interest. The GEFS has looked pretty promising, and even the op has been close in that window on some recent runs.

But the 12z Gefs were pretty cold. They pushed the boundary off the coast at 240hrs and didn't have the overrunning. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=850t_anom-mean&rh=2025011112&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Master baster. 

He knows how to handle a big bird? 

[Heisy]

So the progression of things is starting to become more clear. Northern stream is cooperating. However, the wave (in my gif) here on the GFS near 4 corners we need it to be stronger and a bit slower than 18z is showing.

Future runs root for more of a cmc type with that wave




.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Heisy said:

So the progression of things is starting to become more clear. Northern stream is cooperating. However, the wave (in my gif) here on the GFS near 4 corners we need it to be stronger and a bit slower than 18z is showing.

Future runs root for more of a cmc type with that wave




.

It'll be next weekend at this time before we have a better handle, and probably won't have it nailed down by then either. Lol

[psuhoffman]

@mitchnick the flow doesn’t look suppressive. The issue is the gfs has absolutely nothing in terms of energy in the southern branch come along after the cold front clears. Ya if we got 5-7 days with the boundary south of us and the trough elongated SW to NE centered to our NW but absolutely no waves come along to take advantage we will fail. But that’s not suppression necessarily and more importantly I don’t trust guidance to see that at range. It wouldn’t take much. Remember how many of those waves in 2014 and 2015 weren’t a thought until inside 100 hours. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s funny that some seemed more “optimistic” the last several years when we were stuck in absolutely hopeless situations. I’d see these posts trying to polish the turd we’d been handed.  I was like “what are you looking at this is crap and we have no hope” and they would say I was being a deb.
 

Now we have a legit good pattern with a real chance to have a good season and many are now more pessimistic than me. WTF is going on?  

Well, the legit good pattern has led me to 6" of snow halfway through MET winter, so....

[Heisy]

[mention=821]mitchnick[/mention] the flow doesn’t look suppressive. The issue is the gfs has absolutely nothing in terms of energy in the southern branch come along after the cold front clears. Ya if we got 5-7 days with the boundary south of us and the trough elongated SW to NE centered to our NW but absolutely no waves come along to take advantage we will fail. But that’s not suppression necessarily and more importantly I don’t trust guidance to see that at range. It wouldn’t take much. Remember how many of those waves in 2014 and 2015 weren’t a thought until inside 100 hours. 

Yeah it’s not a suppression issue it’s a spacing issue on the gfs, but like you said we’re way out in time currently for the potential time period.


.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Well, the legit good pattern has led me to 6" of snow halfway through MET winter, so....

We’ve only been in a good pattern for a little over a week. I was never excited by anything before that. And a good pattern doesn’t guarantee we get a ton of snow. It just means we have a chance. I was just wondering why some seemed to be defiantly more optimistic when we were in totally hopeless no chance forget about it situations over the last few years then they are now in a pattern with a 5x better chance of producing meaningful snow. 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@mitchnick the flow doesn’t look suppressive. The issue is the gfs has absolutely nothing in terms of energy in the southern branch come along after the cold front clears. Ya if we got 5-7 days with the boundary south of us and the trough elongated SW to NE centered to our NW but absolutely no waves come along to take advantage we will fail. But that’s not suppression necessarily and more importantly I don’t trust guidance to see that at range. It wouldn’t take much. Remember how many of those waves in 2014 and 2015 weren’t a thought until inside 100 hours. 

You may be right, but I also mentioned the boundary was pushed off the coast. Comparing the 18z Gefs to 12z Geps and you can see on the Geps the ridge nosing west onto the eastern seaboard. Eps looks very similar to Geps. That's my point, whether calling it overwhelmingly cold or pushing the boundary too far off the coast is irrelevant to my point really. Gfs/Gefs, if correct, will not get us to a result like the other 2 suites imho.

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Well, the legit good pattern has led me to 6" of snow halfway through MET winter, so....

How is that possible? I am about double that. Is this your ruler?

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You may be right, but I also mentioned the boundary was pushed off the coast. Comparing the 18z Gefs to 12z Geps and you can see on the Geps the ridge nosing west onto the eastern seaboard. Eps looks very similar to Geps. That's my point, whether calling it overwhelmingly cold or pushing the boundary too far off the coast is irrelevant to my point really. Gfs/Gefs, if correct, will not get us to a result like the other 2 suites imho.

You’re right but there is nothing to suppress the boundary. If any kind of meaningful wave comes among the boundary will push north ahead of it. We need it down there with no block if we want any kind of amplification to work out imo. 

[dailylurker]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@mitchnick the flow doesn’t look suppressive. The issue is the gfs has absolutely nothing in terms of energy in the southern branch come along after the cold front clears. Ya if we got 5-7 days with the boundary south of us and the trough elongated SW to NE centered to our NW but absolutely no waves come along to take advantage we will fail. But that’s not suppression necessarily and more importantly I don’t trust guidance to see that at range. It wouldn’t take much. Remember how many of those waves in 2014 and 2015 weren’t a thought until inside 100 hours. 

This is when the term "happy hour" started.