adelphi_sky Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 6:31 PM, psuhoffman said: It’s funny that some seemed more “optimistic” the last several years when we were stuck in absolutely hopeless situations. I’d see these posts trying to polish the turd we’d been handed. I was like “what are you looking at this is crap and we have no hope” and they would say I was being a deb. Now we have a legit good pattern with a real chance to have a good season and many are now more pessimistic than me. WTF is going on? Expand I thought of a nice LLM project where we take all the data from this forum over the last ten years and ask it some questions. I'm sure the answers would be remarkable. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 6:34 PM, Weather Will said: I'm with you, nice pattern, but 10 years from now no one will remember it unless we get an HECS or better... Expand We remember 2015 fondly with no hecs. I think if we get 2 more significant snow events (say a secs and MECS) this will be remembered as a full win. But your main point is valid. We have to score. And yes we “could” get unlucky and not get anymore snow. But my point was about expectations. For years I’ve seen people trying to find some hope in a totally hopeless situation. Now we have a legit shot and some of those same people are like “meh”. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The EURO splits the difference between the GEM and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 6:34 PM, Weather Will said: I'm with you, nice pattern, but 10 years from now no one will remember it unless we get an HECS or better... Expand January 22-23, 2016 redux exactly 9 years later? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I really take it as is positive that we can still get a moderate snow storm that will stick around for a week and let people enjoy the wintry scene... Also will be paying closer attention to the pdo for now on, it rules the roost!!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 6:38 PM, Weather Will said: I really take it as is positive that we can still get a moderate snow storm that will stick around for a week and let people enjoy the wintry scene... Also will be paying closer attention to the pdo for now on, it rules the roost!!!! Expand It's a measure of the Pacific, not a driver. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 6:30 PM, Ji said: Do you feel better about future life now seeing what can happen when pdo isn’t severely negative Expand It’s a small sample size so far but early returns are encouraging yes. We have to be realistic. The longer scale slow degradation is likely to continue. But this is a sign that perhaps a much larger % of our woes was pdo related. A realistic expectation of the next positive snowfall cycle might be if we can return to the base state of 2003-2016 with perhaps a 10% reduction in snowfall. I can live with that. Especially considering the alternative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The GEFS extended has a colder anomaly for the first 10 days of February than 24 hrs. ago. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 6:34 PM, Weather Will said: I'm with you, nice pattern, but 10 years from now no one will remember it unless we get an HECS or better...Not true 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 6:31 PM, psuhoffman said: It’s funny that some seemed more “optimistic” the last several years when we were stuck in absolutely hopeless situations. I’d see these posts trying to polish the turd we’d been handed. I was like “what are you looking at this is crap and we have no hope” and they would say I was being a deb. Now we have a legit good pattern with a real chance to have a good season and many are now more pessimistic than me. WTF is going on? Expand Said it before and I'll say it again. People love being silly about snow. I enjoy it immensely but I ain't gonna stroke out about frozen water. May not be a popular opinion, but sometimes you gotta appreciate what's in front of you vs freaking out in imaginary panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Well, time to start my shift at the pbp factory next week. 8 4 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 That euro run was woof. Snow to death cold. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Reason I ask about a Monday night clipper is Tuesday looks 10 degrees colder for a high and in this pattern that’s usually a clipper that ushers it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 6:46 PM, stormy said: The GEFS extended has a colder anomaly for the first 10 days of February than 24 hrs. ago. Expand It looks cold thru at least first week of Feb. I Said that10 days ago and it’s still solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 6:45 PM, mitchnick said: It's a measure of the Pacific, not a driver. Expand This can be a driver that often rules the roost in winter when more than -3.0 negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 6:31 PM, psuhoffman said: It’s funny that some seemed more “optimistic” the last several years when we were stuck in absolutely hopeless situations. I’d see these posts trying to polish the turd we’d been handed. I was like “what are you looking at this is crap and we have no hope” and they would say I was being a deb. Now we have a legit good pattern with a real chance to have a good season and many are now more pessimistic than me. WTF is going on? Expand ya know shits good when Ji is optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 6:34 PM, Weather Will said: I'm with you, nice pattern, but 10 years from now no one will remember it unless we get an HECS or better... Expand 100% disagree. My family will remember this week forever. 3 rounds of snow totaling 11” and still haven’t gone above freezing since Sunday. The kids got a whole week off from school, as did my wife and I since we both teach. Sledding, fires, plowing snow, movies, blowing snow, family dinners, atv rides, jebwalks, 5° nights, etc. This area in general, and my family specifically, will remember this week in perpetuity. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 7:05 PM, stormtracker said: Well, time to start my shift at the pbp factory next week. Expand Gas up the bus 3 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 6:27 PM, Weather Will said: There was a lot of chatter about the MJO going into the warm phases late January, now looks like it is heading into the null phase and potentially back into the cold phases instead. Expand Wow that's nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 6:27 PM, clskinsfan said: That little clipper on Thursday/Friday has shown up a couple of times with a shot at some measurable. I know we are big dog trackers here. But it is something to watch. Especially for those of us to west. Expand I'll take anything to freshen up the snowpack. On 1/11/2025 at 6:31 PM, psuhoffman said: It’s funny that some seemed more “optimistic” the last several years when we were stuck in absolutely hopeless situations. I’d see these posts trying to polish the turd we’d been handed. I was like “what are you looking at this is crap and we have no hope” and they would say I was being a deb. Now we have a legit good pattern with a real chance to have a good season and many are now more pessimistic than me. WTF is going on? Expand Stockholm Syndrome. We suck until we don't. On 1/11/2025 at 6:46 PM, stormy said: The GEFS extended has a colder anomaly for the first 10 days of February than 24 hrs. ago. Expand Man that's nice. Couldn't ask for a better setup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 7:45 PM, Deck Pic said: 3 years ago Expand Close but fell slightly short. 2019 was the last year DCA made climo. 2016 was the last time all 3 airports made climo. And that’s only happened 4 times in the last 20 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 7:55 PM, Deck Pic said: 13.2” at DCA vs 13.7” climo. come on dude. lol. Expand It was even worse for my area and Baltimore. We didn’t even get close. The last year most of our area actually hit snow climo was 2016! We’ve had some years since where’s a localized area within our sub got lucky with one storm and got close. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 7:06 PM, TSSN+ said: That euro run was woof. Snow to death cold. Expand If that whole Euro run were to verify, a top 5 coldest January in the last 50 years for our area would be in play. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 7:59 PM, psuhoffman said: It was even worse for my area and Baltimore. We didn’t even get close. The last year most of our area actually hit snow climo was 2016! We’ve had some years since where’s a localized area within our sub got lucky with one storm and got close. Expand Didn't you calculate at some point how much snow we'd need to get just to break even on keeping climo from declining over the 20-year average? I think the N/W areas probably need something like 150" this year just to get back to even..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 6:37 PM, psuhoffman said: We remember 2015 fondly with no hecs. I think if we get 2 more significant snow events (say a secs and MECS) this will be remembered as a full win. But your main point is valid. We have to score. And yes we “could” get unlucky and not get anymore snow. But my point was about expectations. For years I’ve seen people trying to find some hope in a totally hopeless situation. Now we have a legit shot and some of those same people are like “meh”. Expand Pretty much human nature. We don’t want bad things to happen, so we try to wish good things into existence and we don’t want to get carried away when things seem to be too good. There’s also the whole PTSD thing from sucking pretty hard for pretty much the last eight years… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 This one’s for Ji, end of JMA, looks good with the cold front pushing east and a lot of energy load up out west. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12z Euro AI had a stronger cold press, so not so much snow around and past day 9 fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 7:52 PM, psuhoffman said: Close but fell slightly short. 2019 was the last year DCA made climo. 2016 was the last time all 3 airports made climo. And that’s only happened 4 times in the last 20 years! Expand I mean, 5th times a charm?/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 8:25 PM, mitchnick said: 12z Euro AI had a stronger cold press, so not so much snow around and past day 9 fwiw.Bad spacing? Guess I’ll find out in an hour on wxbell . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/11/2025 at 8:35 PM, Heisy said: Bad spacing? Guess I’ll find out in an hour on wxbell . Expand Can't tell with those cheesy maps. Too strong of a cold push unless I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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