Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 That period 21-24 is honking imo across guidance and has been for a couple of days. Alas, things can pop in the short range with these patterns so we wait patiently and continue to monitor. Yea there’s ways to win and fail, we don’t want the eventual trough to come East as one event. The runs that give us snow seem to hold back energy while allowing the cold front to clear first. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Someone coined the term "anal front" for this earlier in the season. That’s was me last year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 52 minutes ago, CAPE said: This fits the trailing wave idea. That’s a nice look. I’m just so pleased to see the ensembles keeping it cold basically through the end of January. It looks like our “big warmup” next weekend maybe be a few days in the 40s. When is the last time we’ve made it through January without a big thaw and at least a few days in the 50s? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 30 minutes ago, Heisy said: I think the 6z Euro Ai about to go off for the 21-22nd . It does. Nice look at the surface. Getting significant HP to the north has been nearly impossible in our current pattern. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Any signs of blocking returning? I’m big-game hunting and this first round was a swing and a miss from the big-game standpoint. Weird how we couldn’t seem to ever get a high pressure to the north as noted by the poster above me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 14 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Any signs of blocking returning? I’m big-game hunting and this first round was a swing and a miss from the big-game standpoint. Weird how we couldn’t seem to ever get a high pressure to the north as noted by the poster above me. It will have to reshuffle if a big -ao/-nao is coming back. Mod/strong EPO ridges generally feature a neutral or + ao/nao because it's awful hard to fill the entire arctic circle with high pressure. Blocking slows things down and spreads out shortwaves which is good when they have their eyes on you but terrible when your on the outside looking in. I'd prefer blocking but there are advantages to progressive epos when it comes to precip events. They are spaced tighter and more frequent. Pick your poison because it NEVER comes easy here lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 27 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Any signs of blocking returning? I’m big-game hunting and this first round was a swing and a miss from the big-game standpoint. Weird how we couldn’t seem to ever get a high pressure to the north as noted by the poster above me. The reason we couldn't is partly because of the massive vortex- our would be 50-50 low that was displaced SW of that position. The other part was the flow between the ridge out west and the TPV contributing to a lot of NS shortwaves feeding into the vortex. Even though it's weak, in a Nina the Polar jet tends to be busier and the STJ less prominent, so that's another contributing factor. As for blocking going forward, the ens runs were depicting a Scandi ridge retrograding into the NAO space, but have backed off on recent cycles. There are still hints, so we shall see on that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 14 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Any signs of blocking returning? I’m big-game hunting and this first round was a swing and a miss from the big-game standpoint. Weird how we couldn’t seem to ever get a high pressure to the north as noted by the poster above me. If you look at the blocking regimes and observe the NAO there is significant potential for a classic Mid Atlantic SECS event, during the favored window of Jan 18 th to Jan 25 th . Current forecast do not show any deep dives in the AO or NAO indices. NAO getting ready to reverse near Jan . 20 th The driver is the EPO. As Tomer states the increased risks of SECS can extend days past the end time of the Greenland High regime. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1878092022277636324 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I'm keeping it simple going forward. Epo patterns are frustrating to figure out beyond 5 days and even then.... I'm not getting married to anything until it's inside of that range. Think of an epo driven pattern as one dude holding an open firehouse. Yea, you can kinda aim it where you want but it sprays all over anyway. That spray with flow is make or break. Expect nothing to lock in and hold mid range and beyond. It's a game of windows and not events. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Clipper Monday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Looks like the first batter is coming up to the plate at the end of the Icon run. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025011112&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500h_anom&rh=2025011112&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: I haven't looked closely at how they do it, but Geps snowfall map is the best of the 3 ensembles. At this range, that's all I need to know. Lol 6z GEFS & 0z GEPS are looking quite impressive for the 7 day period from the 20th to the 27th. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 26 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Clipper Monday night? Looks like 1 on Thursday to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Better separation between initial front and energy behind, see if it can produce anything . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Now 12z cmc, close to a woof woof signal here fellas. CAN definitely tell this might lead to some good things here. Northern stream is clearing and the left over energy looks pretty strong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Is there a legit chance we can actually score in February this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: Better separation between initial front and energy behind, see if it can produce anything . Gem may have something post 180hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Heisy said: Now 12z cmc, close to a woof woof signal here fellas. CAN definitely tell this might lead to some good things here. Northern stream is clearing and the left over energy looks pretty strong . Ninjad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 GFS is trying to get things going late here….i realize this is far out, nothing else to really look at . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Gem has that trough stuck in the sw. Where have we seen that before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Heisy said: GFS is trying to get things going late here….i realize this is far out, nothing else to really look at . S&E again with the system. Ughh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Man Mitch cmc looks secsy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Heisy said: Man Mitch cmc looks secsy . Just gunna post. It's bringing something out of the GOM. Where it goes??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Canadian system looks like snow to a mix S/E of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just gunna post. It's bringing something out of the GOM. Where it goes???Big hit, the good news I take from both of these runs is they are very similar to the euro AI progression. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Gem is a gem. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Canadian has been performing best recently imo did well on the Monday system and was showing a modest hit for last night in the mid range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Canadian system looks like snow to a mix S/E of 95 Good thing it’s 9 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gem is a gem. 6-12” with more to come at the end 7 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gem is a gem. Indeed 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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