mattie g Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: .5-.8 qpf falls south to north before we lose the mid levels on that scenario. Yeah…you can tell we score at least something there. I hate flipping (with a f’ing passion), but we ride the line and accept what happens. It’s just really neat to see the obvious CAD on a view of the entire continent. Super geeky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: For me, I have to put the Prince sketch in there right after Rick James. Last year the SE Ridge crushed my snow hopes...and made me pancakes. Pop copy was underrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 11 minutes ago, mattie g said: Yeah…you can tell we score at least something there. I hate flipping (with a f’ing passion), but we ride the line and accept what happens. It’s just really neat to see the obvious CAD on a view of the entire continent. Super geeky. On that run we only briefly lose the surface and most of the heavy precip is gone by then. It’s a 4-8” thump snow to ice to a few hours of drizzle before the cold air freezes everything solid. Old school we got those things more often. And they were great. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: On that run we only briefly lose the surface and most of the heavy precip is gone by then. It’s a 4-8” thump snow to ice to a few hours of drizzle before the cold air freezes everything solid. Old school we got those things more often. And they were great. Does the pattern show any similarities to January 1994? Seriously doubt DCA goes below zero but ice storms we have not seen since then to that degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 11 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Does the pattern show any similarities to January 1994? Seriously doubt DCA goes below zero but ice storms we have not seen since then to that degree. Yes. There isn’t that much difference between 1994 and 2014 and 2015 honestly. There was another shorter comp period in Feb 1993 also. Slight changes in the centering of the features lead to different results. 1994 the trough centered further west which is why it lead to more ice v snow. Even though even up here none of the storms were pure snow I’d love to repeat that. According to local coop data it was a string of 3-6” mix events that built a glacier. I remember that winter visiting my cousins in Harper’s ferry WV and they had a solid glacier on the ground all winter! Fairfax ended up slightly too far south and unfortunate most storms were pure freezing rain. 1993 was similar. 70 north got crushed and it was less favorable further south. again a further west trough axis. But it was really close. For now I like the axis of the features better, more like 2014 2015. But that’s something to watch out for. If the cold gets centered too far west it opens up the dreaded SER issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18z Euro AI now has the first wave next Moday/Tuesday as rain but the front sinks south and a second impulse comes north and probably drops 6"+ based on Dos style maps. Again, AI jumps all around post 240hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18z euro Ai through 204 hours, very similar to 12z, could get interesting if N/S races ahead@mitchnick, I hope when eagles game wraps up Sunday we’re tracking something . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18z Euro AI now has the first wave next Moday/Tuesday as rain but the front sinks south and a second impulse comes north and probably drops 6"+ based on Dos style maps. Again, AI jumps all around post 240hrs.You beat me lol, yea it depends the speed of those shortwaves, we need to get a little lucky with the spacing as always . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18z Euro AI now has the first wave next Moday/Tuesday as rain but the front sinks south and a second impulse comes north and probably drops 6"+ based on Dos style maps. Again, AI jumps all around post 240hrs.It’s basically a more aggressive and better spaced version of todays 12z gem . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 15 minutes ago, Heisy said: It’s basically a more aggressive and better spaced version of todays 12z gem . Whatever it takes to snow the most before time runs out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 hours ago, LordBaltimore said: You don't have to go that far back. 2014-2015 was the GOAT. People talk about 09-10 but you can't make up for quality with quantity. 14-15 seemed like whole dmv was transported to new hampshire for two months. Lakes iced over into late march. actual snowpack. If we can get a persistent cold pattern out of the rest of January and into February it would go a long way in proving that 14-15 wasn't just some one off fluke 2014-15 was pretty good but 2013-14 was the real GOAT. The closest thing to a wall to wall winter that I’ve ever seen. Especially north of I-70. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: 2014-15 was pretty good but 2013-14 was the real GOAT. The closest thing to a wall to wall winter that I’ve ever seen. Especially north of I-70. After seeing @psuhoffman mention that J-F 2014 stretch as an analog to the possible upcoming pattern, I pulled up my accumulations from that season. What a great winter that was for this area. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, WVclimo said: After seeing @psuhoffman mention that J-F 2014 stretch as an analog to the possible upcoming pattern, I pulled up my accumulations from that season. What a great winter that was for this area. That’s a lot of lost sleep! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 15 minutes ago, Fozz said: 2014-15 was pretty good but 2013-14 was the real GOAT. The closest thing to a wall to wall winter that I’ve ever seen. Especially north of I-70. Honestly might have been confusing them. They were both great years. Feb 2015 was when I rode my bike over a frozen lake roland in college though. Will never forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 27 minutes ago, WVclimo said: After seeing @psuhoffman mention that J-F 2014 stretch as an analog to the possible upcoming pattern, I pulled up my accumulations from that season. What a great winter that was for this area. If a 2013-14 setup is actually in play, then that might be the best thing I’ve heard all decade. Those who were too young back then are in for a real treat. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 19 minutes ago, Fozz said: If a 2013-14 setup is actually in play, then that might be the best thing I’ve heard all decade. Those who were too young back then are in for a real treat. It was actually that winter that brought me to this forum! I was just sitting there Googling "Maryland snow" or something like that. Before that my only sense of this was WP comments section, lol But yep my first exposure to the various models, and the first time I saw a "NAMing". Someone said "Wham bam thank you NAM!" and that phrase sticks out in my brain for some reason, lol But yep...will always associate that winter with here and a continuous wonderland of cold and snow...and the Beatles I "discovered" them that February after their 50th Ed Sullivan anniversary special. Special winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2013-14 is the GOAT. Basically wall to wall winter from mid December to March, early January through March for DC proper. Maybe not the greatest aggregate numbers, but it was a season where there was ALWAYS something real in the medium range. My goodness what a beautiful winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 lol. this run, GFS sucks for the 20th. On to 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 lol. this run, GFS sucks for the 20th. On to 6zCanada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, Fozz said: If a 2013-14 setup is actually in play, then that might be the best thing I’ve heard all decade. Those who were too young back then are in for a real treat. Man I REALLY hope that is the case. In which case I am extremely elated for the entire sub! Because, IT'S THE MID ATLANTIC! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol. this run, GFS sucks for the 20th. On to 6z I said earlier today my fear of cold overwhelming everything. Certainly looks that way thru 240hrs on both Gfs and Gem unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Canada Did you turn off the frozen precip setting by mistake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Did you turn off the frozen precip setting by mistake?Just use your imagination 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I said earlier today my fear of cold overwhelming everything. Certainly looks that way thru 240hrs on both Gfs and Gem unfortunately. Aren't there waves around around the 20th/21st on both of them, though? Now I'm just an amateur and I don't know for sure, but...the runs up to the 240 mark didn't seem so squashy for that week as they do for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Ji said: Just use your imagination Lazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Just use your imagination Leesburg is gonna get rain now because you didn't put in the effort. Good going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Aren't there waves around around the 20th/21st on both of them, though? Now I'm just an amateur and I don't know for sure, but...the runs up to the 240 mark didn't seem so squashy for that week as they do for next week. Nothing like what we saw the last few runs. Gfs has a fantasy storm post 270hrs, but that'll be gone by 12z if not 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, mitchnick said: Nothing like what we saw the last few runs. Gfs has a fantasy storm post 270hrs, but that'll be gone by 12z if not 6z. This upcoming pattern is loaded with potential. We will win some & miss some, but I don’t see a shut out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nothing like what we saw the last few runs. Gfs has a fantasy storm post 270hrs, but that'll be gone by 12z if not 6z. The last two runs were similar in terms of when things looked dry vs more active though. 12z and 18z both had waves the 20th and beyond with the usual fantasy-range mixture of results. So not entirely sure what you mean on that point. I mean...that range ya just to look for very general ideas of stuff, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: This upcoming pattern is loaded with potential. We will win some & miss some, but I don’t see a shut out. What happened to the overrunning pattern? It keeps changing after 2 or 3 looks to something else, always further away in time. Just not believing the fantasy storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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