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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

And GFS does get us eventually in fantasy range. Busy time coming up I think!

GFS actually shows how that kind of pattern, if it actually ends up close to the current longwave projections, would likely play out.  3 waves, one misses north, one south, and one flush hit.  They aren't all going to take the same exact track and if we get that kind of SW to NE oriented thermal boundary with the cold centered to our NW we are likely to score eventually as those waves keep riding the boundary.  They wont all hit, but they won't likely all miss either.  

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The thermal boundary is oriented and located almost exactly where I would want it for this type of pattern to work.  Have to see if that ends up being the reality but I have no issue with the current projections.  

Absolutely love the 8:30-2:30 orientation thru the TN valley. Really broadens the strike zone compared to similar but steeper amplification. Also slows down exits. You can get a pretty fat storm without deep slp. I'm very optimistic 

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44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Absolutely love the 8:30-2:30 orientation thru the TN valley. Really broadens the strike zone compared to similar but steeper amplification. Also slows down exits. You can get a pretty fat storm without deep slp. I'm very optimistic 

Sweet waa overunning look. The thump with those can be impressive. I recall one similar setup in early Feb 1994 or 1996 (sorry been a few years) where it thumped a quick 10" here and wasn't an amped up deep low. These are my fav and least complicated of setups. May the boundary fall as it will!

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3 hours ago, The Ole Bucket said:

The county just to the south of mine here in SE Missouri had an Ice Storm Warning with the Sun/Mon event that absolutely verified. Folks still without power today, now getting socked with 6" of snow today.

Would not recommend.

I mean, I would recommend the snow. I wouldn't recommend the whole being without power for a week and snow covering a half inch of ice thing.

 

Couple of years ago we got three quarters of an inch of ice. Wouldn't recommend that either. No power, no water.

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25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Sweet waa overunning look. The thump with those can be impressive. I recall one similar setup in early Feb 1994 or 1996 (sorry been a few years) where it thumped a quick 10" here and wasn't an amped up deep low. These are my fav and least complicated of setups. May the boundary fall as it will!

I think the 2/94 event was this one.

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/11-Feb-94.html

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4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Exactly... each of these waves in this type of pattern will depend on where the boundary is as they approach and the easiest way to get a win here is to have a NS SW pass by ahead of one of the waves and suppress the thermal boundary to our south as a STJ wave approaches from the southwest.  

But that kind of intricate balancing act is not the type of thing that will be resolved at long leads like in a blocking regime.  None of those storms in 2014 or 2015 were resolved outside 72 hours.  

I do hope some others in this sub heed your's and Chill's warning about this and be patient......

Ah, who am I kidding? Folks will still be in here Day 5 hand-wringing as usual--may as well be talking to a wall :lol:

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I hope this isn't pay walled, but the 12z run of the Cfs looks like what is being described of the Eps and Gefs.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

If you are wondering what kind of snowfall we're talking, run a loop of the snow depth. Nice.

Even better, it keeps the trough in the east as of 2/10.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS is similar...the wave around the 19-20th is iffy, after that any follow up waves in the next week would favor snow given the trough axis and thermal boundary.  

i really want the 20th to be a disaster of a weather day

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