WxUSAF Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 And GFS does get us eventually in fantasy range. Busy time coming up I think! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I like the following wave idea, given the way the pattern looks to evolve. Mentioned this in my post this morning. Based on current guidance the thermal boundary most likely will be to our NW for the threat around the 20th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You didn't hear about the office meeting at 10 this morning either, did you? Never do. As per my last email. Lolol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And GFS does get us eventually in fantasy range. Busy time coming up I think! GFS actually shows how that kind of pattern, if it actually ends up close to the current longwave projections, would likely play out. 3 waves, one misses north, one south, and one flush hit. They aren't all going to take the same exact track and if we get that kind of SW to NE oriented thermal boundary with the cold centered to our NW we are likely to score eventually as those waves keep riding the boundary. They wont all hit, but they won't likely all miss either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12z GFS is a just a little chilly. Amazing how stable the Ak ridge is even on the op run. We may run the entire month of Jan without a real relaxation to the cold if that look holds. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And GFS does get us eventually in fantasy range. Busy time coming up I think! That wave looks really nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Euro close to something 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 lol that's inauguration day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Euro close to something It'll come south. I honestly believe that fwliw. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It'll come south. I honestly believe that fwliw. Congrats Orlando 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 On the GEFS the wave around the 19-20 is the most iffy wrt thermals, but the GEFS would indicate we would likely be on the snowy side of any waves in the week after that. EPS details still rolling in 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 eps looks good 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 EPS is similar...the wave around the 19-20th is iffy, after that any follow up waves in the next week would favor snow given the trough axis and thermal boundary. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: eps looks good Thanks. Do you have 850s for the same period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 EPS looks good for the period of Jan 20-25 but not focused on any one wave...there is a bit of an uptick around the 21st compared to the rest of the period. But it favors some wave sliding by under us during that window. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Thanks. Do you have 850s for the same period? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The thermal boundary is oriented and located almost exactly where I would want it for this type of pattern to work. Have to see if that ends up being the reality but I have no issue with the current projections. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The thermal boundary is oriented and located almost exactly where I would want it for this type of pattern to work. Have to see if that ends up being the reality but I have no issue with the current projections. Absolutely love the 8:30-2:30 orientation thru the TN valley. Really broadens the strike zone compared to similar but steeper amplification. Also slows down exits. You can get a pretty fat storm without deep slp. I'm very optimistic 8 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Absolutely love the 8:30-2:30 orientation thru the TN valley. Really broadens the strike zone compared to similar but steeper amplification. Also slows down exits. You can get a pretty fat storm without deep slp. I'm very optimistic Sweet waa overunning look. The thump with those can be impressive. I recall one similar setup in early Feb 1994 or 1996 (sorry been a few years) where it thumped a quick 10" here and wasn't an amped up deep low. These are my fav and least complicated of setups. May the boundary fall as it will! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, The Ole Bucket said: The county just to the south of mine here in SE Missouri had an Ice Storm Warning with the Sun/Mon event that absolutely verified. Folks still without power today, now getting socked with 6" of snow today. Would not recommend. I mean, I would recommend the snow. I wouldn't recommend the whole being without power for a week and snow covering a half inch of ice thing. Couple of years ago we got three quarters of an inch of ice. Wouldn't recommend that either. No power, no water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Sweet waa overunning look. The thump with those can be impressive. I recall one similar setup in early Feb 1994 or 1996 (sorry been a few years) where it thumped a quick 10" here and wasn't an amped up deep low. These are my fav and least complicated of setups. May the boundary fall as it will! I think the 2/94 event was this one. https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/11-Feb-94.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Exactly... each of these waves in this type of pattern will depend on where the boundary is as they approach and the easiest way to get a win here is to have a NS SW pass by ahead of one of the waves and suppress the thermal boundary to our south as a STJ wave approaches from the southwest. But that kind of intricate balancing act is not the type of thing that will be resolved at long leads like in a blocking regime. None of those storms in 2014 or 2015 were resolved outside 72 hours. I do hope some others in this sub heed your's and Chill's warning about this and be patient...... Ah, who am I kidding? Folks will still be in here Day 5 hand-wringing as usual--may as well be talking to a wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 @mitchnick12z euro Ai, leaves southern energy behind unlike OP, this could lead to N/S prepping a better setup for whatever comes E. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Leads to this, major HP up top, but that wave is super strong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Thanks. Do you have 850s for the same period? That one is ours baby! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I hope this isn't pay walled, but the 12z run of the Cfs looks like what is being described of the Eps and Gefs. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 If you are wondering what kind of snowfall we're talking, run a loop of the snow depth. Nice. Even better, it keeps the trough in the east as of 2/10. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 13 minutes ago, Heisy said: Leads to this, major HP up top, but that wave is super strong . Looks on the Euro site it starts as snow then goes to something else with the slp passing to our west. Way out there, so no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: EPS is similar...the wave around the 19-20th is iffy, after that any follow up waves in the next week would favor snow given the trough axis and thermal boundary. i really want the 20th to be a disaster of a weather day 4 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Looks on the Euro site it starts as snow then goes to something else with the slp passing to our west. Way out there, so no worries.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 16 minutes ago, Heisy said: . Classic WAA thump look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts