mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It totally depends where the boundary sets up. It won’t work if the trough axis is centered too far west. Right now I like where it’s centered on the means. Agree. Normally, as I said, it's NE that wins. But this year I actually am concerned about being too far north. The cold has been pressing and warm-ups delayed, so I'm not willing to overlook that possibility as well. It would be just my luck. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just in case you haven't looked lately, Cfs average forecast for February has gone from torch to average in the east. Trend has obviously been to go colder. We'll see. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Regarding 12z Euro...I know it ends up Ice to rain, but I'll take my chances with a gulf wave approaching us from the TN valley with a 1045 high over upstate NY. There are so many paths to a win there, basically anything other than it phasing early and bombing out to 989 in the lakes and I'll bet against that at this range. There’s cold on our doorstep on the euro, that’s for sure. Looks like a little break next week before winter levels up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Watching a lot of the US for the potential of heavy snow! No bad comments! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: Just in case you haven't looked lately, Cfs average forecast for February has gone from torch to average in the east. Trend has obviously been to go colder. We'll see. It’s strange, ever since mid December the significant warm up has been getting can kicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 17 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: It’s strange, ever since mid December the significant warm up has been getting can kicked. Lol Now how often have we been able to say THAT the last 9 years? Ha...positive can kicking is very refreshing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol Now how often have we been able to say THAT the last 9 years? Ha...positive can kicking is very refreshing Most of that time if we had a win like we had this week we'd be paying for it a week later with temps shooting up into the 70s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Nice signal on the 0z EPS for a significant shortwave ejecting eastward from the energy in the SW. Tricky part at this point is knowing exactly where the thermal boundary will be. With the pattern shifting a bit to a more amplified EPO ridge as the -NAO breaks down, there looks be some weak ridging along the east coast with milder air for a time as the trough digs into the central US. This might be a case where frozen will be favored mostly to our west initially, with colder air coming eastward behind- then we are in a better position for a following wave with the boundary located further southeastward. Still 10 days out so plenty of possibilities. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 An interesting historical thing to track for Jan. 20, especially if the snowstorm doesn't materialize, would be whether DC has its coldest Inauguration since Reagan in 1985. That was truly wild with noontime temp at 7F. Images from Obama's first term make it look very cold but actually it was 28F. Wind chills were in the teens though. Not bringing politics into it at all, but it's fascinating to see how often DC has had truly garbage weather for presidential inaugurations. Few days where it's been sunny and mild. A lot of cold or drizzly or even sleet (Nixon!) and March snowstorms back in the day. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_Inauguration 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 As the LW flow transitions away from Atl blocking to EPO, we're going to lose mid/long range tracking of discrete threats. It's been easy to see windows in the mid/long range last few weeks. Be prepared for that to go poof. Progressive epo patterns can have threats materialize out of thin air inside of d5 and anything showing beyond day 5 can be a total ghost. Run over run changes of storms and their tracks can and will have wild swings and it should be expected and not blamed on "awful models" Models are just tools. We say this all the time. Using any tool requires practice and skill to use it properly. It'd be a good time to practice a little first before blaming models for stealing your snow 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Nice signal on the 0z EPS for a significant shortwave ejecting eastward from the energy in the SW. Tricky part at this point is knowing exactly where the thermal boundary will be. With the pattern shifting a bit to a more amplified EPO ridge as the -NAO breaks down, there looks be some weak ridging along the east coast with milder air for a time as the trough digs into the central US. This might be a case where frozen will be favored mostly to our west initially, with colder air coming eastward behind- then we are in a better position for a following wave with the boundary located further southeastward. Still 10 days out so plenty of possibilities. It will be interesting to see how it interacts with the fast NS. Models at longer leads tend to underestimate the NS/pac jet. So while this is now showing a massive cutter, I'm curious if the NS wave will start coming out a little ahead to flatten out the flow and bring us more colder air before the wave ejects from the SW. That would give us snowier outcomes than the current runs are showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It will be interesting to see how it interacts with the fast NS. Models at longer leads tend to underestimate the NS/pac jet. So while this is now showing a massive cutter, I'm curious if the NS wave will start coming out a little ahead to flatten out the flow and bring us more colder air before the wave ejects from the SW. That would give us snowier outcomes than the current runs are showing. I fear, and getting close to the point of expectation, that cold will be overwhelming the pattern to the point of disappointment. Now this post guarantees rain for all. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I fear, and getting close to the point of expectation, that cold will be overwhelming the pattern to the point of disappointment. Now this post guarantees rain for all. Lol I think there is less risk of cold suppression the next round with a lower PNA and the trough axis shifted further west of us instead of right over us or to the east. But it won't take much to push the boundary far enough south for us to snow and get the northern folks in the game, too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I think there is less risk of cold suppression the next round with a lower PNA and the trough axis shifted further west of us instead of right over us or to the east. But it won't take much to push the boundary far enough south for us to snow and get the northern folks in the game, too. I hope. 3 weeks left in the month and yesterday's promising operationals took a night off. I do like a persistent AN precip February forecast from the Cfs for I can't remember how long. Eps weeklies appear to agree with the first half of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I think there is less risk of cold suppression the next round with a lower PNA and the trough axis shifted further west of us instead of right over us or to the east. But it won't take much to push the boundary far enough south for us to snow and get the northern folks in the game, too. Appears most of the action including cold /snow is up North and NW. Dismal snow map regardless of whether it is useful or not. Maybe its just the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Big game hunters should be excited about this map -Unfortunately, the best "threat" appears to be days 13-15 - see Bob Chill's caution about the decrease in predictability as we shift away from a blocking regime. Also, the 8-14 day outlook shows a confidence level of only 2 of 5 for the period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I hope we get another blocking regime soon, weenies can't handle unpredictable. This place will be a mess. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 57 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Big game hunters should be excited about this map -Unfortunately, the best "threat" appears to be days 13-15 - see Bob Chill's caution about the decrease in predictability as we shift away from a blocking regime. Also, the 8-14 day outlook shows a confidence level of only 2 of 5 for the period. 0z eps has a threat window around jan 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: I think there is less risk of cold suppression the next round with a lower PNA and the trough axis shifted further west of us instead of right over us or to the east. But it won't take much to push the boundary far enough south for us to snow and get the northern folks in the game, too. I went back and looked deeper at the 3 week period I was comparing this upcoming pattern too in 2014. There were 6 significant precipitation events during that window. 1 was all snow 1 was half rain/snow 2 were all or mostly rain 1 was mostly ice 1 was a MECS but did mix with rain The first was a 4-8" snow event (progressive boundary wave) that jacked along and just NW of 95. The next was a double wave, the first was rain everywhere, the second wave flipped to snow across MD with about 7" up here and 2-4" north of Baltimore but little accumulation south of there. The next was a nasty ice storm with some sleet mixed in across the whole area. The next was the Feb MECS that started as snow, mixed with rain then ended as snow. The final wave was a rain snow mix across the area with a general 1-2" of snow. Obviously if the boundary were to set up further NW this time the results could be worse...but just wanted to establish a baseline to compare. I think some hear 2014 and just think of the snow, but there were plenty of rain events during that period also...we aren't likely to get all snow wave after wave from this time of pattern since the boundary will be shifting around wave to wave and we are pretty far south...we are latitudinally challenged, but if there is cold centered just to our NW we are unlikely to get totally skunked from such a pattern if it lasts any length of time, for the same reason. Each wave will take a slightly different track and we just need one or two to come in further southeast. FWIW the 0z EPS shifted the snow mean southeast some indicating we have a good chance to be on the winning side of one of these waves...but its a shotgun look with no ability to pinpoint which wave is the one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Call down guys. We're gonna score, or my name aint Stormracker. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 @psuhoffman remember that straight west track cutter that was all snow? Late Feb 2015 I think? We all got like 4-8" with hp centered between OBX and Bermuda lol. 850s were below freezing 200 miles off the coast. Man that was wild. Surface temps were in low 20s at onset and winds from the surface thru 700mb were out of the south. Truly one of a kind IME. Not thinking thats happening again any time soon but progressive flow keeps spacing tight so I could easily see a west track or 2 working out after the 20th thru end of month. Chances of a legit ice storm will be much higher than normal too. Winter is changing for sure next couple weeks but it's not going anywhere. Good times even if it ends up being messy. I'm thinkin' CAD will be goto acronym here shortly lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman remember that straight west track cutter that was all snow? Late Feb 2015 I think? We all got like 4-8" with hp centered between OBX and Bermuda lol. 850s were below freezing 200 miles off the coast. Man that was wild. Surface temps were in low 20s at onset and winds from the surface thru 700mb were out of the south. Truly one of a kind IME. Not thinking thats happening again any time soon but progressive flow keeps spacing tight so I could easily see a west track or 2 working out after the 20th thru end of month. Chances of a legit ice storm will be much higher than normal too. Winter is changing for sure next couple weeks but it's not going anywhere. Good times even if it ends up being messy. I'm thinkin' CAD will be goto acronym here shortly lol Yes, like it was yesterday. It helped we had a deep arctic airmass in place leading in. Also helped that we got a perfect trajectory on the STJ moisture feed and so dynamic cooling took over and made all the difference. It's very difficult to warm air with a wetbulb of 15 degrees above freezing during heavy precip quickly. It thumped for 6-8 hours and we piled up the snow before the mid levels could get wrecked. It did eventually flip to ice but not until the thump did the work and then the cold front froze us up good quick so we didn't lose any snow. Some places in MD even got around a foot from that west of Baltimore. Not sure we can expect anything like that, as you said, but it does illustrate how many paths there are to a win if you have cold around and progressive waves being directed at us along SW to NE oriented boundary. In that case we had about as awful a synoptic setup as possible and got a significant snowstorm out of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Call down guys. We're gonna score, or my name aint Stormracker. This seems ominous lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman remember that straight west track cutter that was all snow? Late Feb 2015 I think? We all got like 4-8" with hp centered between OBX and Bermuda lol. 850s were below freezing 200 miles off the coast. Man that was wild. Surface temps were in low 20s at onset and winds from the surface thru 700mb were out of the south. Truly one of a kind IME. Not thinking thats happening again any time soon but progressive flow keeps spacing tight so I could easily see a west track or 2 working out after the 20th thru end of month. Chances of a legit ice storm will be much higher than normal too. Winter is changing for sure next couple weeks but it's not going anywhere. Good times even if it ends up being messy. I'm thinkin' CAD will be goto acronym here shortly lol Legit ice storms are super rare - and even when they happen they are usually in pretty narrow corridors. Paging @Eskimo Joe - because he's a bit of a sick puppy and roots for a once in 500 year ice storm at some point. I mean it would be "cool" to experience - but the destructiveness of ice storms and not having power for weeks doesn't sound appealing. I've got a standby generator but not sure it could go weeks running nonstop....it's just a Generac! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Legit ice storms are super rare - and even when they happen they are usually in pretty narrow corridors. Paging @Eskimo Joe - because he's a bit of a sick puppy and roots for a once in 500 year ice storm at some point. I mean it would be "cool" to experience - but the destructiveness of ice storms and not having power for weeks doesn't sound appealing. I've got a standby generator but not sure it could go weeks running nonstop....it's just a Generac! Jan 2018 was a legit ice storm in NW Montgomery County. IIRC, we got upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning after trees started coming down and pulling electrical lines off houses and starting fires at the meters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Jan 2018 was a legit ice storm in NW Montgomery County. IIRC, we got upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning after trees started coming down and pulling electrical lines off houses and starting fires at the meters. I remember a few "decent" ice storms during my lifetime. I was too young to remember 1994, however. Anyway - I guess this antecedent cold could foreshadow an increased ice storm threat as Bob Chill mentioned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 45 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 0z eps has a threat window around jan 20 Correct, my statement was misleading. There are indeed two threat windows. The 6" threshold is only reached after the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman remember that straight west track cutter that was all snow? Late Feb 2015 I think? We all got like 4-8" with hp centered between OBX and Bermuda lol. 850s were below freezing 200 miles off the coast. Man that was wild. Surface temps were in low 20s at onset and winds from the surface thru 700mb were out of the south. Truly one of a kind IME. Not thinking thats happening again any time soon but progressive flow keeps spacing tight so I could easily see a west track or 2 working out after the 20th thru end of month. Chances of a legit ice storm will be much higher than normal too. Winter is changing for sure next couple weeks but it's not going anywhere. Good times even if it ends up being messy. I'm thinkin' CAD will be goto acronym here shortly lol Never had more snow with SE winds in any winter except for 14/15. And it wasn't once, it was multiple times with that one being the highlight of them. Crazy good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I remember a few "decent" ice storms during my lifetime. I was too young to remember 1994, however. Anyway - I guess this antecedent cold could foreshadow an increased ice storm threat as Bob Chill mentioned! January 1994 was an amazing month with two nasty ice storms and record cold. Last day DCA was below zero. I was a sophomore in high school and remember our driveway was a skating rink and Dad could not get car out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 GFS has some mess going on after 214, temps are a bit too warm for us initially. Waiting for the later panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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