Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I fear, and getting close to the point of expectation, that cold will be overwhelming the pattern to the point of disappointment. Now this post guarantees rain for all. Lol I think there is less risk of cold suppression the next round with a lower PNA and the trough axis shifted further west of us instead of right over us or to the east. But it won't take much to push the boundary far enough south for us to snow and get the northern folks in the game, too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I think there is less risk of cold suppression the next round with a lower PNA and the trough axis shifted further west of us instead of right over us or to the east. But it won't take much to push the boundary far enough south for us to snow and get the northern folks in the game, too. I hope. 3 weeks left in the month and yesterday's promising operationals took a night off. I do like a persistent AN precip February forecast from the Cfs for I can't remember how long. Eps weeklies appear to agree with the first half of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I think there is less risk of cold suppression the next round with a lower PNA and the trough axis shifted further west of us instead of right over us or to the east. But it won't take much to push the boundary far enough south for us to snow and get the northern folks in the game, too. Appears most of the action including cold /snow is up North and NW. Dismal snow map regardless of whether it is useful or not. Maybe its just the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Big game hunters should be excited about this map -Unfortunately, the best "threat" appears to be days 13-15 - see Bob Chill's caution about the decrease in predictability as we shift away from a blocking regime. Also, the 8-14 day outlook shows a confidence level of only 2 of 5 for the period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I hope we get another blocking regime soon, weenies can't handle unpredictable. This place will be a mess. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 57 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Big game hunters should be excited about this map -Unfortunately, the best "threat" appears to be days 13-15 - see Bob Chill's caution about the decrease in predictability as we shift away from a blocking regime. Also, the 8-14 day outlook shows a confidence level of only 2 of 5 for the period. 0z eps has a threat window around jan 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: I think there is less risk of cold suppression the next round with a lower PNA and the trough axis shifted further west of us instead of right over us or to the east. But it won't take much to push the boundary far enough south for us to snow and get the northern folks in the game, too. I went back and looked deeper at the 3 week period I was comparing this upcoming pattern too in 2014. There were 6 significant precipitation events during that window. 1 was all snow 1 was half rain/snow 2 were all or mostly rain 1 was mostly ice 1 was a MECS but did mix with rain The first was a 4-8" snow event (progressive boundary wave) that jacked along and just NW of 95. The next was a double wave, the first was rain everywhere, the second wave flipped to snow across MD with about 7" up here and 2-4" north of Baltimore but little accumulation south of there. The next was a nasty ice storm with some sleet mixed in across the whole area. The next was the Feb MECS that started as snow, mixed with rain then ended as snow. The final wave was a rain snow mix across the area with a general 1-2" of snow. Obviously if the boundary were to set up further NW this time the results could be worse...but just wanted to establish a baseline to compare. I think some hear 2014 and just think of the snow, but there were plenty of rain events during that period also...we aren't likely to get all snow wave after wave from this time of pattern since the boundary will be shifting around wave to wave and we are pretty far south...we are latitudinally challenged, but if there is cold centered just to our NW we are unlikely to get totally skunked from such a pattern if it lasts any length of time, for the same reason. Each wave will take a slightly different track and we just need one or two to come in further southeast. FWIW the 0z EPS shifted the snow mean southeast some indicating we have a good chance to be on the winning side of one of these waves...but its a shotgun look with no ability to pinpoint which wave is the one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Call down guys. We're gonna score, or my name aint Stormracker. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 @psuhoffman remember that straight west track cutter that was all snow? Late Feb 2015 I think? We all got like 4-8" with hp centered between OBX and Bermuda lol. 850s were below freezing 200 miles off the coast. Man that was wild. Surface temps were in low 20s at onset and winds from the surface thru 700mb were out of the south. Truly one of a kind IME. Not thinking thats happening again any time soon but progressive flow keeps spacing tight so I could easily see a west track or 2 working out after the 20th thru end of month. Chances of a legit ice storm will be much higher than normal too. Winter is changing for sure next couple weeks but it's not going anywhere. Good times even if it ends up being messy. I'm thinkin' CAD will be goto acronym here shortly lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman remember that straight west track cutter that was all snow? Late Feb 2015 I think? We all got like 4-8" with hp centered between OBX and Bermuda lol. 850s were below freezing 200 miles off the coast. Man that was wild. Surface temps were in low 20s at onset and winds from the surface thru 700mb were out of the south. Truly one of a kind IME. Not thinking thats happening again any time soon but progressive flow keeps spacing tight so I could easily see a west track or 2 working out after the 20th thru end of month. Chances of a legit ice storm will be much higher than normal too. Winter is changing for sure next couple weeks but it's not going anywhere. Good times even if it ends up being messy. I'm thinkin' CAD will be goto acronym here shortly lol Yes, like it was yesterday. It helped we had a deep arctic airmass in place leading in. Also helped that we got a perfect trajectory on the STJ moisture feed and so dynamic cooling took over and made all the difference. It's very difficult to warm air with a wetbulb of 15 degrees above freezing during heavy precip quickly. It thumped for 6-8 hours and we piled up the snow before the mid levels could get wrecked. It did eventually flip to ice but not until the thump did the work and then the cold front froze us up good quick so we didn't lose any snow. Some places in MD even got around a foot from that west of Baltimore. Not sure we can expect anything like that, as you said, but it does illustrate how many paths there are to a win if you have cold around and progressive waves being directed at us along SW to NE oriented boundary. In that case we had about as awful a synoptic setup as possible and got a significant snowstorm out of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Call down guys. We're gonna score, or my name aint Stormracker. This seems ominous lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman remember that straight west track cutter that was all snow? Late Feb 2015 I think? We all got like 4-8" with hp centered between OBX and Bermuda lol. 850s were below freezing 200 miles off the coast. Man that was wild. Surface temps were in low 20s at onset and winds from the surface thru 700mb were out of the south. Truly one of a kind IME. Not thinking thats happening again any time soon but progressive flow keeps spacing tight so I could easily see a west track or 2 working out after the 20th thru end of month. Chances of a legit ice storm will be much higher than normal too. Winter is changing for sure next couple weeks but it's not going anywhere. Good times even if it ends up being messy. I'm thinkin' CAD will be goto acronym here shortly lol Legit ice storms are super rare - and even when they happen they are usually in pretty narrow corridors. Paging @Eskimo Joe - because he's a bit of a sick puppy and roots for a once in 500 year ice storm at some point. I mean it would be "cool" to experience - but the destructiveness of ice storms and not having power for weeks doesn't sound appealing. I've got a standby generator but not sure it could go weeks running nonstop....it's just a Generac! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Legit ice storms are super rare - and even when they happen they are usually in pretty narrow corridors. Paging @Eskimo Joe - because he's a bit of a sick puppy and roots for a once in 500 year ice storm at some point. I mean it would be "cool" to experience - but the destructiveness of ice storms and not having power for weeks doesn't sound appealing. I've got a standby generator but not sure it could go weeks running nonstop....it's just a Generac! Jan 2018 was a legit ice storm in NW Montgomery County. IIRC, we got upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning after trees started coming down and pulling electrical lines off houses and starting fires at the meters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Jan 2018 was a legit ice storm in NW Montgomery County. IIRC, we got upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning after trees started coming down and pulling electrical lines off houses and starting fires at the meters. I remember a few "decent" ice storms during my lifetime. I was too young to remember 1994, however. Anyway - I guess this antecedent cold could foreshadow an increased ice storm threat as Bob Chill mentioned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 45 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 0z eps has a threat window around jan 20 Correct, my statement was misleading. There are indeed two threat windows. The 6" threshold is only reached after the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman remember that straight west track cutter that was all snow? Late Feb 2015 I think? We all got like 4-8" with hp centered between OBX and Bermuda lol. 850s were below freezing 200 miles off the coast. Man that was wild. Surface temps were in low 20s at onset and winds from the surface thru 700mb were out of the south. Truly one of a kind IME. Not thinking thats happening again any time soon but progressive flow keeps spacing tight so I could easily see a west track or 2 working out after the 20th thru end of month. Chances of a legit ice storm will be much higher than normal too. Winter is changing for sure next couple weeks but it's not going anywhere. Good times even if it ends up being messy. I'm thinkin' CAD will be goto acronym here shortly lol Never had more snow with SE winds in any winter except for 14/15. And it wasn't once, it was multiple times with that one being the highlight of them. Crazy good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I remember a few "decent" ice storms during my lifetime. I was too young to remember 1994, however. Anyway - I guess this antecedent cold could foreshadow an increased ice storm threat as Bob Chill mentioned! January 1994 was an amazing month with two nasty ice storms and record cold. Last day DCA was below zero. I was a sophomore in high school and remember our driveway was a skating rink and Dad could not get car out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 GFS has some mess going on after 214, temps are a bit too warm for us initially. Waiting for the later panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Gonna be just too warm for us verbatim. At least there's some action going for that time period still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Gonna be just too warm for us verbatim. At least there's some action going for that time period still. look upstairs, could be a follow up wave that does it. EPS shows something similar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 47 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Legit ice storms are super rare - and even when they happen they are usually in pretty narrow corridors. Paging @Eskimo Joe - because he's a bit of a sick puppy and roots for a once in 500 year ice storm at some point. I mean it would be "cool" to experience - but the destructiveness of ice storms and not having power for weeks doesn't sound appealing. I've got a standby generator but not sure it could go weeks running nonstop....it's just a Generac! The county just to the south of mine here in SE Missouri had an Ice Storm Warning with the Sun/Mon event that absolutely verified. Folks still without power today, now getting socked with 6" of snow today. Would not recommend. I mean, I would recommend the snow. I wouldn't recommend the whole being without power for a week and snow covering a half inch of ice thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I hope. 3 weeks left in the month and yesterday's promising operationals took a night off. I do like a persistent AN precip February forecast from the Cfs for I can't remember how long. Eps weeklies appear to agree with the first half of the month. It looks like the 6z euro Ai was a snowstorm for the 20-21st because it shows the S stream lagging behind the N/S and it creates a sort of anafront. 12z GFS is closer to having that happen, still a few steps away, but if the N/S had pushed a little faster ahead it could have been a colder storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: look upstairs, could be a follow up wave that does it. EPS shows something similar Doesn't work out, but hey...at least we got the action in the favored time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 GGEM has the follow up wave idea give us a little snow. Doesn’t quite get going in time. It all looks like a wave spacing and strength question. I think we want that northern stream wave to be strong enough and separated enough from the southern stream to drag the boundary through and let the southern wave ride up behind it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 55 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Legit ice storms are super rare - and even when they happen they are usually in pretty narrow corridors. Paging @Eskimo Joe - because he's a bit of a sick puppy and roots for a once in 500 year ice storm at some point. I mean it would be "cool" to experience - but the destructiveness of ice storms and not having power for weeks doesn't sound appealing. I've got a standby generator but not sure it could go weeks running nonstop....it's just a Generac! The Nov 2018 ice storm down here Waynesboro/Staunton/Augusta was extremely damaging... Listening to the booms and cracks and crashes - seeing blue flashes across the sky that night was unforgettable ... No electric for about a week...So much damage was done to trees with limbs sheared off that we didn't have much in the way of power outages for a few years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM has the follow up wave idea give us a little snow. Doesn’t quite get going in time. It all looks like a wave spacing and strength question. I think we want that northern stream wave to be strong enough and separated enough from the southern stream to drag the boundary through and let the southern wave ride up behind it. Good catch. We seem to win the most when the boundary is laid ahead of the southern stream energy, but not so far off that we lack enough lift to maximize the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12z gfs and 6z euro Ai look pretty similar through 200 hours, only difference after that is euroai kind of runs the N/S out ahead while GFS phases it in. Plenty of time for that to change. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM has the follow up wave idea give us a little snow. Doesn’t quite get going in time. It all looks like a wave spacing and strength question. I think we want that northern stream wave to be strong enough and separated enough from the southern stream to drag the boundary through and let the southern wave ride up behind it. Exactly... each of these waves in this type of pattern will depend on where the boundary is as they approach and the easiest way to get a win here is to have a NS SW pass by ahead of one of the waves and suppress the thermal boundary to our south as a STJ wave approaches from the southwest. But that kind of intricate balancing act is not the type of thing that will be resolved at long leads like in a blocking regime. None of those storms in 2014 or 2015 were resolved outside 72 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2). Clipper system Tuesday brings additional minor snow accumulations potentially as far east as the Blue Ridge. From Blacksburg, this is the first I’m seeing or hearing about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: 2). Clipper system Tuesday brings additional minor snow accumulations potentially as far east as the Blue Ridge. From Blacksburg, this is the first I’m seeing or hearing about this. You didn't hear about the office meeting at 10 this morning either, did you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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