brooklynwx99 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Regarding 12z Euro...I know it ends up Ice to rain, but I'll take my chances with a gulf wave approaching us from the TN valley with a 1045 high over upstate NY. There are so many paths to a win there, basically anything other than it phasing early and bombing out to 989 in the lakes and I'll bet against that at this range. EPS is really nice looking. might be cutting it close down here but it really reminds me of 13-14 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GEFS finally starting to show a snowy signal day 10-15 Need a Weather Will WB map or it doesn’t exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 11 minutes ago, Ji said: oh you are talking about the Jan 23 storm. The jan 20 modeled event was severely dissapointing. Lets wait till ensembles i guess There is a window around the 18-20 where the boundary could shift to our NW. But it depends on wave spacing. Right now things are trending towards a bit too much space between the departing trough/50/50 and the next wave amplifying a bit too far west creating a ridge in between. But that can change...but even if it did go down that way we are only talking about a 2 day period and one wave that would likely cut to our NW. After that we would be back in the game and the next wave becomes a threat...again contingent on the details of wave spacing. We don't have blocking anymore so we would need something to time up correctly, come at us while we have the 50/50 from a departing wave, have waves come at us in pieces and not phased. We pulled it off multiple times in 2014 and 2015. I know it hasnt worked much lately but as I pointed out yesterday one of the main culprits for that was the full latitude -PDO induced central pacific pattern. That causes systems to want to amplify way too much into the western US. If the pacific ridge is displaced northeast which directs the cold into the eastern US more it gives us a much better chance. We had that in January 2022. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: Need a Weather Will WB map or it doesn’t exist. I know a pure snowfall map is not the best way to break down a threat window...but I already laid out what I like about the pattern yesterday and nothing has changed. So just for sh!ts and giggles, this is a good looking 7 day mean for a week 2 period. First of all its 7 days not a 16 day mean... and at day 10+ you're not going to have a uniform track across guidance so you get this washed out area of snowfall, but its centered on us and extends well to our south and north...plus the "extra" snow to our NW is lake effect not synoptic, we are the epicenter of the snow max on this plot from synoptic snow. This is about as good a signal as you will see on a week 2 snow mean. I was waiting for the ensembles snow plots to start to match the potential and todays 12z GEFS did. Again a snow map is not that useful but it shows what I wanted. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 EPS snowfall much improved day 10-15 also 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 54 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: would be kinda funny if we had massive blizzards every decade on the 6th year of that decade. So far it's the trend since 1996 (I'll give us Feb 2006 since DC north was pretty good). Jan 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 this is pretty much all you need to see 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I can see a win within this paradigm 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not necessarily, there are two types of Nina base states. One with a flat pacific ridge and more westward displaced north american trough (typically in western canada or worse into the southwest US) and one with a more poleward pacific ridge which pushes the downstream trough eastward and extends cold into the eastern US. In the former nina type the eastern US is a torch and there is typically no snow anywhere near us, think years like 2008, 2012, 2023. The storm track doesn't matter at all in these years since there is no cold to work with. In the latter(years like 2001, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2018, 2022) our typical fail mode is that storms tend to develop too late for our area and miller b us. The STJ is suppressed and the northern stream systems get going too late. Places just to our northeast Philly to Boston did much better in those years. In neither type of nina are lake cutters the primary reason we don't get much snow. Well explained I learned a lot thank you! I appreciate your time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Jan 2016 He didn't exclude 2016 - it is implied that it is included in his 10 year cycle comment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The long range reminds me most of very late January through mid February 2014 right now. That was not the coldest period of that winter, there were a TON of waves in that window and they were about 50/50 rain v snow across our area. There was an ice event thrown in, a rain to snow that thumped 70 north, and of course that mid Feb MECS. But it was fun times. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I feel horrible for New England. Joking of course as slight AN is still plenty cold enough for them. But funny to see as the entire nation save for FL and them is BN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The long range reminds me most of very late January through mid February 2014 right now. That was not the coldest period of that winter, there were a TON of waves in that window and they were about 50/50 rain v snow across our area. There was an ice event thrown in, a rain to snow that thumped 70 north, and of course that mid Feb MECS. But it was fun times. There were a lot of overrunning events, right? That's what the maps above look like to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 11 minutes ago, Terpeast said: There were a lot of overrunning events, right? That's what the maps above look like to me It was a 3 week period of non stop boundary waves and we were riding the boundary with each one with mixed results wave to wave. It was fun. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: There's our big bowl look! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Idk, I never get all warm and bubbly when I hear overrunning pattern because NE usually scores best. Hopefully, this year's overwhelmingly cold press puts up a decent fight instead of folding on us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The long range reminds me most of very late January through mid February 2014 right now. That was not the coldest period of that winter, there were a TON of waves in that window and they were about 50/50 rain v snow across our area. There was an ice event thrown in, a rain to snow that thumped 70 north, and of course that mid Feb MECS. But it was fun times. I'd gladly take another Feb 2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Idk, I never get all warm and bubbly when I hear overrunning pattern because NE usually scores best. Hopefully, this year's overwhelmingly cold press puts up a decent fight instead of folding on us. It totally depends where the boundary sets up. It won’t work if the trough axis is centered too far west. Right now I like where it’s centered on the means. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It totally depends where the boundary sets up. It won’t work if the trough axis is centered too far west. Right now I like where it’s centered on the means. Agree. Normally, as I said, it's NE that wins. But this year I actually am concerned about being too far north. The cold has been pressing and warm-ups delayed, so I'm not willing to overlook that possibility as well. It would be just my luck. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just in case you haven't looked lately, Cfs average forecast for February has gone from torch to average in the east. Trend has obviously been to go colder. We'll see. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Regarding 12z Euro...I know it ends up Ice to rain, but I'll take my chances with a gulf wave approaching us from the TN valley with a 1045 high over upstate NY. There are so many paths to a win there, basically anything other than it phasing early and bombing out to 989 in the lakes and I'll bet against that at this range. There’s cold on our doorstep on the euro, that’s for sure. Looks like a little break next week before winter levels up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Watching a lot of the US for the potential of heavy snow! No bad comments! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: Just in case you haven't looked lately, Cfs average forecast for February has gone from torch to average in the east. Trend has obviously been to go colder. We'll see. It’s strange, ever since mid December the significant warm up has been getting can kicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 17 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: It’s strange, ever since mid December the significant warm up has been getting can kicked. Lol Now how often have we been able to say THAT the last 9 years? Ha...positive can kicking is very refreshing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol Now how often have we been able to say THAT the last 9 years? Ha...positive can kicking is very refreshing Most of that time if we had a win like we had this week we'd be paying for it a week later with temps shooting up into the 70s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Nice signal on the 0z EPS for a significant shortwave ejecting eastward from the energy in the SW. Tricky part at this point is knowing exactly where the thermal boundary will be. With the pattern shifting a bit to a more amplified EPO ridge as the -NAO breaks down, there looks be some weak ridging along the east coast with milder air for a time as the trough digs into the central US. This might be a case where frozen will be favored mostly to our west initially, with colder air coming eastward behind- then we are in a better position for a following wave with the boundary located further southeastward. Still 10 days out so plenty of possibilities. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 An interesting historical thing to track for Jan. 20, especially if the snowstorm doesn't materialize, would be whether DC has its coldest Inauguration since Reagan in 1985. That was truly wild with noontime temp at 7F. Images from Obama's first term make it look very cold but actually it was 28F. Wind chills were in the teens though. Not bringing politics into it at all, but it's fascinating to see how often DC has had truly garbage weather for presidential inaugurations. Few days where it's been sunny and mild. A lot of cold or drizzly or even sleet (Nixon!) and March snowstorms back in the day. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_Inauguration 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 As the LW flow transitions away from Atl blocking to EPO, we're going to lose mid/long range tracking of discrete threats. It's been easy to see windows in the mid/long range last few weeks. Be prepared for that to go poof. Progressive epo patterns can have threats materialize out of thin air inside of d5 and anything showing beyond day 5 can be a total ghost. Run over run changes of storms and their tracks can and will have wild swings and it should be expected and not blamed on "awful models" Models are just tools. We say this all the time. Using any tool requires practice and skill to use it properly. It'd be a good time to practice a little first before blaming models for stealing your snow 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Nice signal on the 0z EPS for a significant shortwave ejecting eastward from the energy in the SW. Tricky part at this point is knowing exactly where the thermal boundary will be. With the pattern shifting a bit to a more amplified EPO ridge as the -NAO breaks down, there looks be some weak ridging along the east coast with milder air for a time as the trough digs into the central US. This might be a case where frozen will be favored mostly to our west initially, with colder air coming eastward behind- then we are in a better position for a following wave with the boundary located further southeastward. Still 10 days out so plenty of possibilities. It will be interesting to see how it interacts with the fast NS. Models at longer leads tend to underestimate the NS/pac jet. So while this is now showing a massive cutter, I'm curious if the NS wave will start coming out a little ahead to flatten out the flow and bring us more colder air before the wave ejects from the SW. That would give us snowier outcomes than the current runs are showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It will be interesting to see how it interacts with the fast NS. Models at longer leads tend to underestimate the NS/pac jet. So while this is now showing a massive cutter, I'm curious if the NS wave will start coming out a little ahead to flatten out the flow and bring us more colder air before the wave ejects from the SW. That would give us snowier outcomes than the current runs are showing. I fear, and getting close to the point of expectation, that cold will be overwhelming the pattern to the point of disappointment. Now this post guarantees rain for all. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts