January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

18z Euro has 0"-1" inch forum wide.  Jackpot is Bob Chill!  Congrats!

Fucking thing won't budge

I'm kinda surprised the euro didn't at least make a small move better. It's pretty dang juicy down south. Euro goes all ginsu n chit as it comes north.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm kinda surprised the euro didn't at least make a small move better. It's pretty dang juicy down south. Euro goes all ginsu n chit as it comes north.

It will. We all know how this goes.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What was your original hunch? Lol

Read up a few posts.

I thought the Euro took a step towards the GFS on its 12z run, and that it might get closer to phasing that energy in just behind the southern shortwave on the 18z run.

Instead it comes in overtop, suppresses the developing southern low and kicks it off the SE coast.

[Amped]

Euro has the PB lobe in eastern Canada the furthest southeast which destroys the chance of anything getting north of the carolinas.

[Paleocene]

Am I imagining a weenie rule that the gfs handles northern stream better?

[clskinsfan]

I am gonna need a phase to tuck this. So I am most likely cooked. Will definitely go to the beach this time if necessary though. 

[WesternFringe]

9 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Am I imagining a weenie rule that the gfs handles northern stream better?

Yes

 

jk- I think that is a rule

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am gonna need a phase to tuck this. So I am most likely cooked. Will definitely go to the beach this time if necessary though. 

Outside of a lucky inch or so, I think we’re cooked for this one

[frd]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Outside of a lucky inch or so, I think we’re cooked for this one

Next 7 days look dry, but cold. 

Thought we had a chance with this one, but looking slim at the moment. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Read up a few posts.

I thought the Euro took a step towards the GFS on its 12z run, and that it might get closer to phasing that energy in just behind the southern shortwave on the 18z run.

Instead it comes in overtop, suppresses the developing southern low and kicks it off the SE coast.

Have no clue how I looked right at that post and missed that point--my bad, lol

And ah well...if this one is indeed cooked, getting 1/2 threats in a week to hit ain't so bad 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Have no clue how I looked right at that post and missed that point--my bad, lol

And ah well...if this one is indeed cooked, getting 1/2 threats in a week to hit ain't so bad 

Friday's squall'y day is underrated.  I actually think that was more exciting weather-wise than yesterday lol, at least up here where I received about 0.5" after 8am.

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

Next 7 days look dry, but cold. 

Thought we had a chance with this one, but looking slim at the moment. 

I feel like this next system could still make a sneaky shift north.

[psuhoffman]

The next strong signal for a storm across guidance isn’t until day 12-15. Hopefully something comes up before then but unfortunately the overly suppressed dry fears might be becoming more likely which was always the most likely issue with this pattern. 

[rjvanals]

While this system is on life support in terms of a significant snow for the area, it’s still pretty impressive to see the skill both of the  long range models and posters who identified the 10-11th as a major storm threat over 2 weeks ago 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The next string signal for a storm across guidance isn’t until day 12-15. Hopefully something comes up before then but unfortunately the overly suppressed dry fears might be becoming more likely which was always the most likely issue with this pattern. 

didn’t you guys just get dumped on? lmao

[wxdude64]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

didn’t you guys just get dumped on? lmao

ALWAYS looking for the next one!

[North Balti Zen]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

didn’t you guys just get dumped on? lmao

Not psu and a bunch of us across the northern tier of Maryland - fringed with terrible rates. Three inches up this way. 

[Heisy]

The next string signal for a storm across guidance isn’t until day 12-15. Hopefully something comes up before then but unfortunately the overly suppressed dry fears might be becoming more likely which was always the most likely issue with this pattern. 

Yeah it’s def not shit the blinds, but we may be in a little waiting period.


.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yeah it’s def not shit the blinds, but we may be in a little waiting period.


.

Please don’t do that to ur blinds 

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

didn’t you guys just get dumped on? lmao

I only got 4”. The northern 3rd of our area didn’t do so good.
 

I average 40, LONG way to go to even get close to climo. But it’s been a better season than I expected so far I’ll admit that. Further south they are half way to climo from that one storm yes, but cold regimes are so rare down here anymore we kind of can’t afford to waste them only getting one decent event. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yeah it’s def not shit the blinds, but we may be in a little waiting period.


.

Something could pop up. There are several waves and a clipper in the flow. But they all get shredded across all guidance right now. 

[Heisy]

Please don’t do that to ur blinds 

Most winters my blinds are brown for a reason.

Jan 18-23 probably the next time frame with potential outside some clipper type snow

Sometimes in really good winters though things pop up out of no where in medium/late range, we’ll see


.

[Maestrobjwa]

39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

didn’t you guys just get dumped on? lmao

Kinda sorta...southern half totals doubled the northern half, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The next strong signal for a storm across guidance isn’t until day 12-15. Hopefully something comes up before then but unfortunately the overly suppressed dry fears might be becoming more likely which was always the most likely issue with this pattern. 

I mean overall...couldn't we say our "prime climo" doesn't usually start until around then anyway (I always view it as Jan 15th-PD) I feel like this week was an early bonus Of course, that being said...no telling what Februrary could look like, so hopefully second half of Jan we can gwt another chance.

[stormtracker]

Aiight...here we go..0z kickoff

So what I'm seeing earlier on is the nrn vort isn't as diggy....the southwest vort is a little more easter

[stormtracker]

Kinda funny..the southern vort is a little more north...but so is the northern vort.  

[Eskimo Joe]

53 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

didn’t you guys just get dumped on? lmao

Mason-Dixon Line got shafted.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Kinda funny..the southern vort is a little more north...but so is the northern vort.  

Obviously one has a restraining order against the other.

[stormtracker]

so far, nrn vort aint as diggy

[Ji]

so far, nrn vort aint as diggy

What are we cheering for again?