January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[WEATHER53]

Expect it to snow 

When DC flips on the rusted and hard to move snow switch then Magic happens. I got a mostly white beard and seen it happen by golly!!

 

[stormtracker]

At the gym. Yinz on your own for the gfs.  Good luck

[WEATHER53]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

At the gym. Yinz on your own for the gfs.  Good luck

Move this to banter please!!!!!!!!

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

At the gym. Yinz on your own for the gfs.  Good luck

Daggone NY resolutions messin with the PBP! Hahaha

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Daggone NY resolutions messin with the PBP! Hahaha

Been going for 14 years now.  The resolutioners are the worst and they are crawling all over here.  They usually drop off by March tho. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

At the gym. Yinz on your own for the gfs.  Good luck

Apparently Pittsburg is Mid Atlantic now

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Apparently Pittsburg is Mid Atlantic now

I just like the word. I’m borrowing it. 

[paulythegun]

the way this is trending (looking at the last 8 GFS runs), by game time we'll have a Great Lakes Bomb Cyclone

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

the way this is trending (looking at the last 8 GFS runs), by game time we'll have a Great Lakes Bomb Cyclone

At 84 that energy is phasing into the backside of the system pressing eastward. 

[SnowenOutThere]

I have no idea what just happened with the GFS, but it does still snow.

[yoda]

I'd take the 18z GFS and run 

[jgentworth]

untrained eye, comparing to 12z, it looks like 18z heights out front are slightly steeper and the trough is slightly more neutral allowing the surface to be slightly (just a tick NW). 18z Precip shield seems a bit broader 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

I'd take the 18z GFS and run 

Yep, snow on snow.  Nice 3-4" refresh.

[midatlanticweather]

With this kind of setup, a correction north --- or south (more possible) could be seen! This looked pretty good! It gets all VA some love (except maybe far SE VA)! 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, jgentworth said:

untrained eye, comparing to 12z, it looks like 18z heights out front are slightly steeper and the trough is slightly more neutral allowing the surface to be slightly (just a tick NW). 18z Precip shield seems a bit broader 

Your username just got a jingle stuck in my head.  I approve of your analysis though. 

[yoda]

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

At the gym. Yinz on your own for the gfs.  Good luck

Damn.  Was hoping you'd be at the bar drinking complimentary tequila shots again, while doing the PBP!

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, jgentworth said:

untrained eye, comparing to 12z, it looks like 18z heights out front are slightly steeper and the trough is slightly more neutral allowing the surface to be slightly (just a tick NW). 18z Precip shield seems a bit broader 

I need a cash settlement. 

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I need a cash settlement. 

Only if you bring snow now

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

 

Can't hate that, really!  Though I though the use of Kuchera ratios was perhaps not the best.  Still, that is a nice advisory-level event in these parts (warning level in some others).

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Can't hate that, really!  Though I though the use of Kuchera ratios was perhaps not the best.  Still, that is a nice advisory-level event in these parts (warning level in some others).

QPF 0.3 for IAD and 0.46 for DCA. 

Apply your own snow ratios...

[rjvanals]

If the GFS is right we're only ~80 hours from the first flakes from this storm so it's getting late kinda early if we want big changes 

[CAPE]

Euro made a step towards the GFS with phasing in that last piece of NS energy earlier on the 12z run, and it was closer to something decent at the surface, but discombobulated. It takes a bigger step this run I believe.

 

[Terpeast]

Just now, CAPE said:

Euro made a step towards the GFS with phasing in that last piece of NS energy earlier on the 12z run, and it was closer to something decent at the surface, but discombobulated. It takes a bigger step this run I believe.

 

12z, right? 18z hasn't run yet

[Paleocene]

Temps look good at surface, 850, and 700. Cold on cold, snow on snow.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Damn.  Was hoping you'd be at the bar drinking complimentary tequila shots again, while doing the PBP!

We probably wouldn't have gotten any pbp at all 

[high risk]

6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Can't hate that, really!  Though I though the use of Kuchera ratios was perhaps not the best.  Still, that is a nice advisory-level event in these parts (warning level in some others).

   Thank you.   The Kuchera drives me nuts.  It always feels like this is 10:1

 

  and this is the same case with Kuchera:

 

 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

12z, right? 18z hasn't run yet

Yes 12z.  I think that's what I said lol.

[Ji]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

QPF 0.3 for IAD and 0.46 for DCA. 

Apply your own snow ratios...

done 

20:1

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, high risk said:

   Thank you.   The Kuchera drives me nuts.  It always feels like this is 10:1

 

  and this is the same case with Kuchera:

 

 

 

 

 

Actually, in all seriousness, I don't even know what method is used to compute the Kuchera ratios.  Maybe it's good in some situations, but I've heard so many mixed things about it.  Seems almost better to show 10:1 and go from there, fudge as needed.