January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Solution Man said:

It’s a fantastic model

So was the CRAS, may it rest in peace.

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Progressive NAVGEM moved towards juicier and closer to the coast. And before anyone asks.... yes, the NAVGEM is an excellent model. But only when it shows what you want

Perfect

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS 50% snowfall, which btw is a much better indicator than the mean which can be skewed by outliers. It was an improvement over the previous run.  

 

Roanoke about to be ingested by the 'claw' or jaws, your choice, and aimed at DC. Amazing how 90% of model snow maps manage to have a similar image.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So was the CRAS, may it rest in peace.

when you use cras jokes every 7 hours, they stop becoming funny

[HighStakes]

Just now, Ji said:

when you use cras jokes every 7 hours, they stop becoming funny

Short Pump says hello!

[Mikeymac5306]

26 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

There any chance this Saturdays event can be something like Boxing day? Where a last second better phase ends up giving more of a storm? 

More like Wrestling Day where the phases miss. 

[real]

30 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

There any chance this Saturdays event can be something like Boxing day? Where a last second better phase ends up giving more of a storm? 

Boxing Day was a horrible storm for DC and Baltimore.  It was like 5 hours of the lightest snizzle that accumulated maybe a half an of inch

[stormtracker]

NAM kinda looks improved at H5 vs 12z?  I'm bored and desperate yall.  Humor me

[stormtracker]

Nope.  We not gonna that here @Ji

[Terpeast]

Speaking of the WPO, the PDO is only -0.5 now

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

NAM kinda looks improved at H5 vs 12z?  I'm bored and desperate yall.  Humor me

if it didnt get stuck in the Southwest for 24 hours....we would have alot less energy holding back. Thats what i think is killing us too

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Nope.  We not gonna that here @Ji

sorry didnt realize we in storm mode already

[Ji]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Speaking of the WPO, the PDO is only -0.5 now

its going to be a fun next 30 years. By the time the cycle is over...ill probably be near death

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

if it didnt get stuck in the Southwest for 24 hours....we would have alot less energy holding back. Thats what i think is killing us too

Yeah, ideally that thing would just come out sooner and it one solid piece 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

sorry didnt realize we in storm mode already

It's the subject.   Anyway...NAM prob won't get it done, but I think the h5 is a bit different...and positive.  We'll see

[AlexD1990]

5 minutes ago, real said:

Boxing Day was a horrible storm for DC and Baltimore.  It was like 5 hours of the lightest snizzle that accumulated maybe a half an of inch

YMMV severely with that storm. Obviously is a 4-letter word for the majority of the forum, but those of us on the Delmarva have....lets just say...fonder memories of it.

[Ji]

this is the kind of storm track/type(juicy gulf low) that the Nam likes to NAM us btw.....i bet we have a run where it shows 10 inches only to go out to sea 6 hours later

[Ji]

not sure which moves slower. the ULL in the Desert or the Nam

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

not sure which moves slower. the ULL in the Desert or the Nam

Differences are pretty notable out west, but I still think the nrn vort is gonna be too far out front ultimately

[stormtracker]

Continues to be notably different, but can already see its gonna do that tail shit again and leave most of the southern vort behind.    But these are some positive changes.   Enough to hope things can keep changing in the future at least

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Continues to be notably different, but can already see its gonna do that tail shit again and leave most of the southern vort behind.    But these are some positive changes.   Enough to hope things can keep changing in the future at least

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2025010718/namconus_z500_vort_us_40.png

you would think these could all merge together lol

[mattie g]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Continues to be notably different, but can already see its gonna do that tail shit again and leave most of the southern vort behind.    But these are some positive changes.   Enough to hope things can keep changing in the future at least

Let's just raise the floor a little bit. Don't need a HECS - just some fun on a Saturday.

[clskinsfan]

Its a pretty big difference. Northern energy is much farther south this run. Too bad its the NAM. 

[stormtracker]

Actually has more of the sw vort energy phased in vs 12z

[Shad]

Are we gonna get NAM'd?

[stormtracker]

We're not gonna get a fully phased bomb, but the height lines are higher out in front vs 12z.   But northern vort coming on and down and about to fuck it up 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Shad said:

Are we gonna get NAM'd?

No

[Paleocene]

NS wave slower/norther and SS waver faster/stronger versus 12z. Love me some NAM play by play.

[Paleocene]

Just now, stormtracker said:

No

Depends on your threshold for NAM'd. "Shows any amount of snow more than the pro models" = NAMD

[stormtracker]

h5 def improved..but still looks like it'll slide just to our S and E.    That was fun