psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 TLDR version: the day 15 looks very much like 2014 and 2015. 13 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: TLDR version: the day 15 looks very much like 2014 and 2015. so - looks like we'll get real winter about once a decade now. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: TLDR version: the day 15 looks very much like 2014 and 2015. i am predicting this winter and next(el nino without the canadian blowtorch) will make winters great again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: so - looks like we'll get real winter about once a decade now. These things still run in cycles... if the AO and PDO are both going through a decadal flip right now (they could be but its too soon to say for sure) maybe we are about to head into a heater. Of course keep expectations in check...heater periods are not necessarily what they once were, I don't think the 1800s or 1960s are walking through that door anytime soon, but we can probably pull off a run like 2003-2016 again. Snowfall is really fluky and we dont always end up with a big number around here even in a "real winter" 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013 were all "real winters" with periods of sustained cold and some snowfall around our area we just got unlucky and didn't score any flush hits those years. 2003, 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2015 we got the cold and the big snows. But it felt like legit winter "most" years during that stretch unlike recent years where we spend a majority of the "winter" in a fall jacket. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i am predicting this winter and next(el nino without the canadian blowtorch) will make winters great again 4 7 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i am predicting this winter and next(el nino without the canadian blowtorch) will make winters great again see my post right after yours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, hstorm said: Saturday's storm is leaning a bit to the right. 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, TSSN+ said: lol I can’t with these models anymore LOL, looks like NWS Blacksburg's radar beam going just to my east in a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just a tidbit since I’m bored. Euro Ai is a really good model. Been watching it during all the events so far this winter and it’s really accurate. It seems like the graphics are like smoothed out like the old control, but I’m not exactly sure what goes into it. It’s been pretty steady with Saturday’s event outside minor ticks here and there. It seems all the models trending towards its overall H5 look. I think SE of the cities could be in store for 1-4” event with maybe far SE sections 2-5”. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 There any chance this Saturdays event can be something like Boxing day? Where a last second better phase ends up giving more of a storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 To add visuals. The trough under the WPO is significant and changes the equation. If there was a ridge there like in recent years feeding a full latitude ridge into the WPO that feeds into a full latitude trough into western N America which of course leads to our out of control SER torches. This is a different look and is likely related to the relaxation of the PDO which was why that opened the door to significantly better outcomes this winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 As opposed to this look which is what was plaguing us the last 8 years... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris_B Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 What do you guys think of Ryan Hall? He explains things well and is measured when talking about the uncertainty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: To add visuals. The trough under the WPO is significant and changes the equation. If there was a ridge there like in recent years feeding a full latitude ridge into the WPO that feeds into a full latitude trough into western N America which of course leads to our out of control SER torches. This is a different look and is likely related to the relaxation of the PDO which was why that opened the door to significantly better outcomes this winter. I started beating the desk in November in the La Niña thread that the trough over or near Japan was new and would maintain the trough in the east. Still important to at least keep a ridge out of Japan if not a trough imho. Though not a trough, that 15 day map is close enough to neutral not to hurt us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Progressive NAVGEM moved towards juicier and closer to the coast. And before anyone asks.... yes, the NAVGEM is an excellent model. But only when it shows what you want 2 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Bob Chill said: Progressive NAVGEM moved towards juicier and closer to the coast. And before anyone asks.... yes, the NAVGEM is an excellent model. But only when it shows what you want It's crazy that you're saying this, I JUST looked at it and said to myself "well, it has a progressive bias." Weenies sure think alike. I was bored in the downtime between model cycles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Progressive NAVGEM moved towards juicier and closer to the coast. And before anyone asks.... yes, the NAVGEM is an excellent model. But only when it shows what you want JMA too somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Progressive NAVGEM moved towards juicier and closer to the coast. And before anyone asks.... yes, the NAVGEM is an excellent model. But only when it shows what you want It’s a fantastic model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Solution Man said: It’s a fantastic model So was the CRAS, may it rest in peace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Progressive NAVGEM moved towards juicier and closer to the coast. And before anyone asks.... yes, the NAVGEM is an excellent model. But only when it shows what you want Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: EPS 50% snowfall, which btw is a much better indicator than the mean which can be skewed by outliers. It was an improvement over the previous run. Roanoke about to be ingested by the 'claw' or jaws, your choice, and aimed at DC. Amazing how 90% of model snow maps manage to have a similar image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So was the CRAS, may it rest in peace. when you use cras jokes every 7 hours, they stop becoming funny 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Ji said: when you use cras jokes every 7 hours, they stop becoming funny Short Pump says hello! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 26 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said: There any chance this Saturdays event can be something like Boxing day? Where a last second better phase ends up giving more of a storm? More like Wrestling Day where the phases miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 30 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said: There any chance this Saturdays event can be something like Boxing day? Where a last second better phase ends up giving more of a storm? Boxing Day was a horrible storm for DC and Baltimore. It was like 5 hours of the lightest snizzle that accumulated maybe a half an of inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 NAM kinda looks improved at H5 vs 12z? I'm bored and desperate yall. Humor me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Nope. We not gonna that here @Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Speaking of the WPO, the PDO is only -0.5 now 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, stormtracker said: NAM kinda looks improved at H5 vs 12z? I'm bored and desperate yall. Humor me if it didnt get stuck in the Southwest for 24 hours....we would have alot less energy holding back. Thats what i think is killing us too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, stormtracker said: Nope. We not gonna that here @Ji sorry didnt realize we in storm mode already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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