January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think at this point we can't really count on that NS just going poof, can we?

No it’s gonna be an issue 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No it’s gonna be an issue 

That's what I thought, lol Ah well...guess we just gotta see what we can squeeze out of this one and move on to whatever comes next (hopefully we have more chances!) And hey, at least we've got the cold with a bit of a snowpack 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

We need that Great Lakes Low out of there!

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

That's what I thought, lol Ah well...guess we just gotta see what we can squeeze out of this one and move on to whatever comes next. At least we've got the cold with the snowpack 

It’s worth watching because there’s small intricacies in the evolution that have big impact. The euro actually was better with heights and SS but worse as the n/s outran the phasing a bit which hurt the system downstream for us. 

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ATL gets more snow than we do.  looks like an inch or so for us.   Bob chill seems like in the 2-4 band.

It’s more of a 1-2” deal verbatim. Nice little refresher. 
 

[Paleocene]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

We need that Great Lakes Low out of there!

We needed it to phase with the southern stream wave for the whole thing to go nuclear and drop 3 feet on us

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

We needed it to phase with the southern stream wave for the whole thing to go nuclear and drop 3 feet on us

Exactly. It is an issue if it doesnt though. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

We need that Great Lakes Low out of there!

Not gonna happen we have to try to make it work. It can. We got a decent snow last year with a GLL. We got MECS storms in 1966 and 1987 with a similar setup so a bigger event isn’t even impossible. But I know it makes it a lot harder. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s more of a 1-2” deal verbatim. Nice little refresher. 
 

Oh.  Bob must have moved again.

Why are you on the board?

[peribonca]

Nickel and diming our way to climo+. We already got the dime, time for the nickel.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Oh.  Bob must have moved again.

Why are you on the board?

I’m addicted to the game. The tracking is basically half the fun anyway. Also eating lunch. The morning margs really took me out. Need to recover

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, peribonca said:

Nickel and diming our way to climo+. We already got the dime, time for the nickel.

I want a buck fifty

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I want a buck fifty

So 1.5? 

[CAPE]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the NS SW isn’t going to dig in behind we would have been better if it just wasn’t there at all. 

Yeah I made a post about this earlier. Looks to me like the 12z Euro made a step towards the GFS though wrt that NS energy.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

So 1.5? 

Nah - way more. If a dime is the 7 inches I just got with this one - eh - nvm the brain doesn't want to do the math right now  

[clskinsfan]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

So 1.5? 

Meters?

[WxUSAF]

GEPS made a big move to a snowier event

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

I think if we set our goal as a pack refresher aka 2-3" we'll be fine.  

I love these events, these are the kind of events that make a winter really fun IMO.  

We have the euro, GFS, and ICON with 0.2 QPF, the CMC 0.1, and UK is a shutout. I really like where we stand for a light event without precip type issues. 

 

[cbmclean]

24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

MJO passes through phase 1 with some amplitude then into phase 2 later in the month. Which is great. That is a nice signal for sustained cold. If we miss the next storm we will have other chances this month. Maybe after a relaxation?

 

I'll believe it when I see it; it's been almost physically impossible for the MJO to spend any time in 7-8-1-2 since the start of our -PDOom period.  Note how the wave collapsed into the COD rather than be in 7.

 

Edit, for some reason I was thinking 7 was one of the "good" phases but looking at the correlations, not really.

[Jebman]

18 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

We needed it to phase with the southern stream wave for the whole thing to go nuclear and drop 3 feet on us

That, is the kind of mammoth styled blizzard I have long been yearning for you guys to get demolished by for years!

[bncho]

14 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Nickel and diming our way to climo+. We already got the dime, time for the nickel.

FOX 5 went from the dollar coin to the nickel.

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I'll believe it when I see it; it's been almost physically impossible for the MJO to spend any time in 7-8-1-2 since the start of our -PDOom period.  Note how the wave collapsed into the COD rather than be in 7.

 

Edit, for some reason I was thinking 7 was one of the "good" phases but looking at the correlations, not really.

Spaghetti plots are all really good. Some with far less amplitude. But I think it might be a given at this point. We are exiting the COD into phase 8 right now. 

[aldie 22]

So only the UGHMET is a ratter?

[DDweatherman]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEPS made a big move to a snowier event

Do you happen to have a low positions map? 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

EPS is a light event for all of us, and it’s trended better from last nights 0z run. 

[mattie g]

18 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I love these events, these are the kind of events that make a winter really fun IMO.  

We have the euro, GFS, and ICON with 0.2 QPF, the CMC 0.1, and UK is a shutout. I really like where we stand for a light event without precip type issues. 

 

I agree. If the jack is 2" and that jack is over me, then I really won't complain. If the jack is 25" and I get 6" then I'll be annoyed.

Dumb logic, but then again I'm not very logical when it comes to snow.

[IronTy]

Even if we come away with 2-4" I'm not sure where I'm going to put all the snow.  I'll figure it out somehow.  

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Do you happen to have a low positions map? 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

P5 please 

[ravensrule]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

P5 please 

I would P in my pants.