BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:50 PM, Kmlwx said: I want a buck fifty Expand So 1.5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:32 PM, psuhoffman said: If the NS SW isn’t going to dig in behind we would have been better if it just wasn’t there at all. Expand Yeah I made a post about this earlier. Looks to me like the 12z Euro made a step towards the GFS though wrt that NS energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:53 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: So 1.5? Expand Nah - way more. If a dime is the 7 inches I just got with this one - eh - nvm the brain doesn't want to do the math right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:53 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: So 1.5? Expand Meters? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 GEPS made a big move to a snowier event 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 3:32 PM, yoda said: I think if we set our goal as a pack refresher aka 2-3" we'll be fine. Expand I love these events, these are the kind of events that make a winter really fun IMO. We have the euro, GFS, and ICON with 0.2 QPF, the CMC 0.1, and UK is a shutout. I really like where we stand for a light event without precip type issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:35 PM, clskinsfan said: MJO passes through phase 1 with some amplitude then into phase 2 later in the month. Which is great. That is a nice signal for sustained cold. If we miss the next storm we will have other chances this month. Maybe after a relaxation? Expand I'll believe it when I see it; it's been almost physically impossible for the MJO to spend any time in 7-8-1-2 since the start of our -PDOom period. Note how the wave collapsed into the COD rather than be in 7. Edit, for some reason I was thinking 7 was one of the "good" phases but looking at the correlations, not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:43 PM, Paleocene said: We needed it to phase with the southern stream wave for the whole thing to go nuclear and drop 3 feet on us Expand That, is the kind of mammoth styled blizzard I have long been yearning for you guys to get demolished by for years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:49 PM, peribonca said: Nickel and diming our way to climo+. We already got the dime, time for the nickel. Expand FOX 5 went from the dollar coin to the nickel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:57 PM, cbmclean said: I'll believe it when I see it; it's been almost physically impossible for the MJO to spend any time in 7-8-1-2 since the start of our -PDOom period. Note how the wave collapsed into the COD rather than be in 7. Edit, for some reason I was thinking 7 was one of the "good" phases but looking at the correlations, not really. Expand Spaghetti plots are all really good. Some with far less amplitude. But I think it might be a given at this point. We are exiting the COD into phase 8 right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 So only the UGHMET is a ratter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:56 PM, WxUSAF said: GEPS made a big move to a snowier event Expand Do you happen to have a low positions map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 EPS is a light event for all of us, and it’s trended better from last nights 0z run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:56 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I love these events, these are the kind of events that make a winter really fun IMO. We have the euro, GFS, and ICON with 0.2 QPF, the CMC 0.1, and UK is a shutout. I really like where we stand for a light event without precip type issues. Expand I agree. If the jack is 2" and that jack is over me, then I really won't complain. If the jack is 25" and I get 6" then I'll be annoyed. Dumb logic, but then again I'm not very logical when it comes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Even if we come away with 2-4" I'm not sure where I'm going to put all the snow. I'll figure it out somehow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 6:11 PM, DDweatherman said: Do you happen to have a low positions map? Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 6:20 PM, psuhoffman said: Expand P5 please 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 6:20 PM, psuhoffman said: P5 please Expand I would P in my pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 6:21 PM, ravensrule said: I would P in my pants. Expand depends 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 6:20 PM, psuhoffman said: P5 please Expand P14 as a backup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 6:20 PM, psuhoffman said: Expand Looks like two of them are really skewing the mean to me… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Um, maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 6:22 PM, psuhoffman said: depends Expand LOLLLLL, good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 EPS 50% snowfall, which btw is a much better indicator than the mean which can be skewed by outliers. It was an improvement over the previous run. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 6:21 PM, ravensrule said: I would P in my pants. Expand 5 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 6:28 PM, CAPE said: 5 times Expand There is a laundry list of things I’d do for a 20”er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I'd be more than fine with 2". It'll just keep the snowpack healthy. I was looking for a BamWX video about the upcoming "blizzard" but I think he deleted his YT channel. I wonder why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:56 PM, WxUSAF said: GEPS made a big move to a snowier event Expand Well a lot of unusual stuff has been happening recently so this would be another for us ala 1987 where it snows every time it possibly can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 6:42 PM, WEATHER53 said: Well a lot of unusual stuff has been happening recently so this would be another for us ala 1987 where it snows every time it possibly can Expand Now that we have the cold, all we need is our year-round, every 4-5 days (on average) precip event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Transitioning to the long range again... the EPS shifted the trough axis east in the day 10-15 period. The AO/NOA is relaxing but looks neutral not hostile. The ridge does retrograde into the WPO domain, which as Chuck pointed out is not ideal, however I've noted guidance continues to indicate troughing in the central pacific underneath the WPO and EPO ridge. This creates a significantly different effect than when the ridge in the central pacific is full latitude being fed from the tropics. It's a much less hostile pacific look, more neutral in terms of its effects downstream on North America. It will force the ridging to creep into western N Amer. more which prevents a god awful -PNA digging for gold down the west coast, and also directs cold shots a little further east. Lastly, not only is this not a hostile look IMO, but its even a pretty good one if you have cold established across N America ahead of this pattern. In recent years when we did get a mediocre pattern it was often coming off a torch which just doesn't work...but going from a great pattern that establishes cold a mediocre longwave pattern is much more likely to produce snow. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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