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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?


mappy
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Just now, stormtracker said:

Ya just really hate to see that northern vort outrunning the southern one, which is doing...all in all, no doubt the height rise is better out front.  Keep expectations in check.  Still has that other SW to NE tail look.  Ugh

It really is so close to something much more substantial. The smallest differences have big time downstream implications.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ya just really hate to see that northern vort outrunning the southern one, which is doing...all in all, no doubt the height rise is better out front.  Keep expectations in check.  Still has that other SW to NE tail look.  Ugh

If the NS SW isn’t going to dig in behind we would have been better if it just wasn’t there at all. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

so precip is increasing from our SW and starts light snow around 12z Sat, and just flies through by like 17z or so.   Doesn't seem like much of anything at all.   I'd be surprised if it's more than 2"

In some ways it’s a better run with a worse result. Closer to giving us a coastal result but because of that kills the moderate idea from 6z as it dries up the n/s energy.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No it’s gonna be an issue 

That's what I thought, lol Ah well...guess we just gotta see what we can squeeze out of this one and move on to whatever comes next (hopefully we have more chances!) And hey, at least we've got the cold with a bit of a snowpack :lol:

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

That's what I thought, lol Ah well...guess we just gotta see what we can squeeze out of this one and move on to whatever comes next. At least we've got the cold with the snowpack :lol:

It’s worth watching because there’s small intricacies in the evolution that have big impact. The euro actually was better with heights and SS but worse as the n/s outran the phasing a bit which hurt the system downstream for us. 

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3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

We need that Great Lakes Low out of there!

Not gonna happen we have to try to make it work. It can. We got a decent snow last year with a GLL. We got MECS storms in 1966 and 1987 with a similar setup so a bigger event isn’t even impossible. But I know it makes it a lot harder. 

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