January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[TSSN+]

South is snow town. Time to move south I guess if you want to see snow. Lol 

[North Balti Zen]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, i-95 is the northwest extent of 4-6.   Further west is 2-4.  Northern neck has the most

That makes sense. On any model run of a storm wherever the wall is modeled, it’s over my house. So congrats 95 and east 

.

[catoctin wx]

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

We might live too far north for snow anymore.

I was just thinking the same thing

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

South is snow town. Time to move south I guess if you want to see snow. Lol 

As soon as you do that the climo will flip back around again--bet on it, haha

[winter_warlock]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

That makes sense. On any model run of a storm wherever the wall is modeled, it’s over my house. So congrats 95 and east 

.

Congrats? It'd only tuesday 

.. still 4 days out lol.  Models didn't nail down the last storm till within 36 hours lol

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

We might live too far north for snow anymore.

Hey maybe we oughta make a separate "Baltimore north and west" thread 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

As soon as you do that the climo will flip back around again--bet on it, haha

Probably. Every place he used to live before Hanover got more snow than him yesterday... including Fairfax county. 

[snowfan]

Northers just need to start scheduling winter vacations to st michaels now. It’s no longer just a summer destination. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't overlook the Roanoke/Penhook deathband jack... 

Sorry @stormtracker, I can't read when getting digitally jacked. Appreciate the consideration from waaaaay down Herr

 

@Buddy1987

I've liked this setup from afar. Yesterday was always going to be a temp problem for me/you. This one is right in the zone for an all snow event that sticks from the start. We're getting close to locking in 2-4 with boom potential. Pretty stoked!

[Ji]

I am glad i live in eastern Loudoun

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

South is snow town. Time to move south I guess if you want to see snow. Lol 

I'm curious how many of us have moved north to get more snow in years past...i'm one of those who did moving from Woodbridge to Leesburg back in 04

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

I'm curious how many of us have moved north to get more snow in years past...i'm one of those who did moving from Woodbridge to Leesburg back in 04

I miss that guy.  He used to post cool bird photos.

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sorry @stormtracker, I can't read when getting digitally jacked. Appreciate the consideration from waaaaay down Herr

 

@Buddy1987

I've liked this setup from afar. Yesterday was always going to be a temp problem for me/you. This one is right in the zone for an all snow event that sticks from the start. We're getting close to locking in 2-4 with boom potential. Pretty stoked!

12z Canadian looks a lot more phase happy earlier on than 12z GFS lets see what happens in the upcoming frames.

[Interstate]

I will pay for an Airbnb in Southern MD this weekend  for @North Balti Zen to stay in.

[DDweatherman]

GGEM looks better than 0z looking at h5 thru 54. 

[Shad]

Canadian looks to be a Richmond to Northern Neck to VA Beach special.....nice totals there but Northern VA folks wont like it much

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

South is snow town. Time to move south I guess if you want to see snow. Lol 

CWG in 2018: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/01/17/the-number-of-southern-cities-which-have-more-snow-than-d-c-is-embarrassing/

[Scraff]

I knew living alongside I-95 in HoCo would pay dividends. You poor souls up in the hills. That’s what you get for upgrading your elevation and being closer to the sun. 

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sorry @stormtracker, I can't read when getting digitally jacked. Appreciate the consideration from waaaaay down Herr

 

@Buddy1987

I've liked this setup from afar. Yesterday was always going to be a temp problem for me/you. This one is right in the zone for an all snow event that sticks from the start. We're getting close to locking in 2-4 with boom potential. Pretty stoked!

Ill give you shout outs from now on in the pbp

[LongRanger]

Southern slider. The 12z GFS appears about as good as we can get from it around here. If the storm were to wrap up more than depicted, precip type issues would crop up for the big cities. Been following the 11th's storm for two weeks, sorry it's not looking wow for us.

[somecallmetim]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I'm curious how many of us have moved north to get more snow in years past...i'm one of those who did moving from Woodbridge to Leesburg back in 04

That would have been a decent screen name.

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I hope it's easier to get a nw tick than a north tick!

This is a different synoptic setup, the results yesterday do not have much to say about this next threat.  That does not mean we don't get fringed again, but its a different set of circumstances.  

[DDweatherman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

This is a different synoptic setup, the results yesterday do not have much to say about this next threat.  That does not mean we don't get fringed again, but its a different set of circumstances.  

Historically, what does a storm like this tend to trend towards as we close in? 

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ill give you shout outs from now on in the pbp

We took one for the team the other night so you all could get fire hosed. My road looks like I live in northwest Russia right now. Would like some nice powder. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Historically, what does a storm like this tend to trend towards as we close in? 

Odds are at this range there will be an error in where the baroclinic boundary sets up and the wave tracks, but in recent years its been equal chances whether that error is NW or SE.  But a typical error NW puts us into good snow.  A typical error SE leaves us smoking cirrus.  

[Paleocene]

CMC snow. A tick southeast 50+miles, and less broad/generous with QPF

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Odds are at this range there will be an error in where the baroclinic boundary sets up and the wave tracks, but in recent years its been equal chances whether that error is NW or SE.  But a typical error NW puts us into good snow.  A typical error SE leaves us smoking cirrus.  

Still.   Almost 100  hours away.  Models will change

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That does not mean we don't get fringed again,

We are though, the good stuff is further south.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

We are though, the good stuff is further south.

I meant in reality not on models at day 4

[Paleocene]

GEFS low positions for 12z Sat.

And mean snow, probably a bit more coming but dont feel like waiting for the panel to load: