January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Shad said:

looks juicier at 75.....

It's also more south with the low and h5 more strung out with a sloppier connection of streams. I'll hold judgement but don't love it thus far. 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said:

I totally agree! It is just funny that we trumpet our ability to create technology (especially AI) but are unable to get a better handling on weather in the short / medium ranges. If that went away, what would us as weather hobbyists do with our time?

Look at actual verification scores, we have improved significantly.  Day 5 scores are similar to day 3 from 20 years ago!  Peoples expectations just continue to increase faster than science in this area.  But it wasn't all that long ago that forecasts only went to day 5 (remember TWC 5 day business planner) and day 5 was unicorn fantasy land.  Now we look out to day 10 in the same way but expect better results.  

[stormtracker]

Precip actually angled a hair better vs 6z, but still don't expect any significant changes wrt out amounts

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Precip actually angled a hair better vs 6z, but still don't expect any significant changes wrt out amounts

SS getting held back/left behind a bit makes it hard to gain much neutral tilt to get that orientation to climb the way we want it. Maybe it'll pull it off anyway.

[stormtracker]

snowing lightly at 7am Sat

[Thewiledcard]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at actual verification scores, we have improved significantly.  Day 5 scores are similar to day 3 from 20 years ago!  Peoples expectations just continue to increase faster than science in this area.  But it wasn't all that long ago that forecasts only went to day 5 (remember TWC 5 day business planner) and day 5 was unicorn fantasy land.  Now we look out to day 10 in the same way but expect better results.  

Fair point!

[stormtracker]

moderate just to the south over northern neck.  I think that's the brick wall rn

[stormtracker]

well hold a minute...moderate makes it up to DC.  Like literally I-95 marks the northern extent of moderate

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at actual verification scores, we have improved significantly.  Day 5 scores are similar to day 3 from 20 years ago!  Peoples expectations just continue to increase faster than science in this area.  But it wasn't all that long ago that forecasts only went to day 5 (remember TWC 5 day business planner) and day 5 was unicorn fantasy land.  Now we look out to day 10 in the same way but expect better results.  

You’re still going to hit hard limits with chaos theory

[stormtracker]

This might actually get us to what we want...3-5 fer..

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

This might actually get us to what we want...3-5 fer..

96 is decent 

[yoda]

@CAPE loves 99 

[stormtracker]

Yeah, i-95 is the northwest extent of 4-6.   Further west is 2-4.  Northern neck has the most

[Buddy1987]

@Bob Chillincoming at 84!

[WxUSAF]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, i-95 is the northwest extent of 4-6.   Further west is 2-4.  Northern neck has the most

I'll take it

[Paleocene]

Eastern shore special.

[stormtracker]

Not bad for city dwellers  S and E.   Northern crew just needs slight adjustments.   

[Shad]

I like where I am in the Northern Neck for this one.....this is how we typcailly win in our area........Seems to be simiar to the ICON and probably what the Canadian will show, Euro playing a little catch up

[mitchnick]

Sooo close to being sooo much better.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Not bad for city dwellers  S and E.   Northern crew just needs slight adjustments.   

 A nw tick of 50 to 75 miles puts us all in warning level. Snows

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@Bob Chillincoming at 84!

way ahead of you.  He does well.  4-6

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

That's a crippling storm for northern Alabama and Louisiana

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Sooo close to being sooo much better.

Sadly true, but I don't think we can get to where we need to be. I'm ok with 2-4/3-5 so long as we don't get fringejobbed again. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Not bad for city dwellers  S and E.   Northern crew just needs slight adjustments.   

Slight adjustments are hard...lol

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

way ahead of you.  He does well.  4-6

I’ll take it! Best run so far for southern areas. Now we need Euro onboard. Hopefully you all can get in on the action as trends happen.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

 A nw tick of 50 to 75 miles puts us all in warning level. Snows

I hope it's easier to get a nw tick than a north tick!

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sooo close to being sooo much better.

We might live too far north for snow anymore.

[HighStakes]

Looks like 1/26/1987 with lighter totals.

[stormtracker]

So yeah...reset our expectations and this could be a decent little event.  I like it.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not bad for city dwellers  S and E.   Northern crew just needs slight adjustments.   

Don't overlook the Roanoke/Penhook deathband jack...