January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[burgertime]

15 hours ago, StormyClearweather said:

That's what makes you the best at it. We had someone similar in the SE forum when I lived down there (h/t @burgertime) before he moved off to Europe. His go-to was "BOOM!" I'll  gladly take either a "BOOM!" or a "FOLKS."

Really hoping you guys and the SE get it soon as well. Fun little fact I stole the "BOOM" from the "boom goes the dynamite" guy. 

[mitchnick]

Rgem not bad looking either at the end.

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Id take it at this point. Gonna see what 12z shows, but I’m starting to get the feeling that this or like 5” is our max upside.  it’s getting too late in the game for massive changes that we need for double digits i think. Not impossible but window closing fast. 

I think if we set our goal as a pack refresher aka 2-3" we'll be fine.  

[NorthHillsWx]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just gotta' get that NC batch up here.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010712&fh=108&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=icon

Nope. It stays here. It’s ours 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Rgem not bad looking either at the end.

Yeah, pretty nice.  Hopefully means GGEM will be a solid hit.  Agree with @stormtracker that the window for one of those GFS bomb runs to play out is closing fast.  But I'm not going to kick 2-4"/3-5" out of bed if we can get it there. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think if we set our goal as a pack refresher aka 2-3" we'll be fine.  

The high end of that would bring DCA to double digits for the season. They haven’t had a double digit season since 21-22

[Thewiledcard]

34 minutes ago, somecallmetim said:

It's almost as if global climate interactions and the ability to decipher chaos in the system at long leads are incredibly complex. 

I totally agree! It is just funny that we trumpet our ability to create technology (especially AI) but are unable to get a better handling on weather in the short / medium ranges. If that went away, what would us as weather hobbyists do with our time?

[Bob Chill]

29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Speaking of southern stream...do you think that stays active like it has been so far? I always like to see the gulf doing things in the winter, and the modeling doesn't seem to have any shortage of waves coming from there. But I could be looking at it wrong too, lol

This colder/active stretch looks much more like a nino than nina in the northern hemisphere. I talked about this in the fall. I never thought this winter would behave like a typical nina. Nino hangover no doubt has its hand in the cookie jar. One of the reasons I was a little bullish early on. I had some good guesses this fall so far but they were just experienced based intuition guesses. I get that stuff wrong plenty but my confidence was high this year for reasons I can't really explain even to myself lol

Does it continue? Idk. Gut says nino hangover look will break down and not come back. We're getting pretty far into winter now. If things stay colder/active, I don't think it will look the same. Prob getting ahead of myself but intuition is telling me that a more zonal/boundary type regime will be the next money maker if there is one. Less amplified pna and hints of a SE ridge. Blocking can flatten the ridge and create zonal flow with cold fighting warm. If that happens the gulf will be involved by default. Just throwing ideas around. I cannot predict the long range future any better than mets, models,and longtimers here. Much uncertainty lies ahead 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Nope. It stays here. It’s ours 

No, you misunderstand. You get yours, but we get ours plus yours.

[Paleocene]

GFS running. Let's get our forum-wide 3-6" !

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, pretty nice.  Hopefully means GGEM will be a solid hit.  Agree with @stormtracker that the window for one of those GFS bomb runs to play out is closing fast.  But I'm not going to kick 2-4"/3-5" out of bed if we can get it there. 

I certainly don't mind those when we get more than 1 and that ends up being the winter. A second one in a week reminds me of last year when I had two warning level events up here. The 4" outside from yesterday looks great, wouldn't mind adding 4 more. 

[aldie 22]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Id take it at this point. Gonna see what 12z shows, but I’m starting to get the feeling that this or like 5” is our max upside.  it’s getting too late in the game for massive changes that we need for double digits i think. Not impossible but window closing fast. 

I won't give up until Gwen does

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

This colder/active stretch looks much more like a nino than nina in the northern hemisphere. I talked about this in the fall. I never thought this winter would behave like a typical nina. Nino hangover no doubt has its hand in the cookie jar. One of the reasons I was a little bullish early on. I had some good guesses this fall so far but they were just experienced based intuition guesses. I get that stuff wrong plenty but my confidence was high this year for reasons I can't really explain even to myself lol

Does it continue? Idk. Guy says nino hangover look will break down and not come back. We're getting pretty far into winter now. If things stay colder/active they, I don't think it will look the same. Prob getting ahead of myself but intuition is telling me that a more zonal/boundary type regime will be the next money maker if there is one. Less amplified pna and hints of a SE ridge. Blocking can flatten the ridge and create zonal flow with cold fighting warm. If that happens the gulf will be involved by default. Just throwing ideas around. I cannot predict the long range future any better than mets, models,and longtimers here. Much uncertainty lies ahead 

Mjo has become stronger and is progged to stay in Phase 1 longer. Odd for a Niña and much more common in a Niño. 

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You may not have seen my other post to Bob that I  do believe, after any "thaw", a return of winter end of February in early March. Could be wrong, but who cares. And modeling may change, since my thoughts are based on current modeling.  But our best pattern should be this month into early February, so that's the real reason for my hope to score soon and often now, redundantly speaking notwithstanding! Lol 

Oh I definitely agree, but up here I will say often we pull off a win in an "ok" pattern more so than the lowlands in this sub, that's where we can get a win.  There are plenty of examples where my snowiest week of the winter came during a blah pattern up here after disappointing results from a much better one.  

[DDweatherman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Oh I definitely agree, but up here I will say often we pull off a win in an "ok" pattern more so than the lowlands in this sub, that's where we can get a win.  There are plenty of examples where my snowiest week of the winter came during a blah pattern up here after disappointing results from a much better one.  

I wouldn't mind a 5-6 week stretch like what happened in 14 or kinda what happened in 15. Hitting with those borderline events which our areas maximize potential on. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

The 500mb troff collapses, so the precip does too.

A subtle but seemingly critical difference between the Euro and GFS has to do with timing/degree of interaction with NS shortwave energy(of course) digging southward that's associated with the vorticity lobe south of Hudson. GFS phases some of that energy sooner and acts to pick up the southern low, placing it closer to the coast. Euro is lesser/later with the interaction, so that energy acts so suppress/kick the low offshore.

 

[mitchnick]

In case you didn't see it, 6z Gefs was on board for a moderate event at least.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025010700&fh=138&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[konksw]

It’s really wild to think about how well forecasted 1993 was ahead of time. 

[stormtracker]

GFS so far remains largely unchanged

[NorthHillsWx]

You can all keep your frost bitten snowy mid Atlantic hands off our central NC snowstorm this weekend please! Now go back to shoveling your driveways and sledding 

[stormtracker]

It's just setting our expectations...or resetting them at this point.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, konksw said:

It’s really wild to think about how well forecasted 1993 was ahead of time. 

Triple phase storms show up at long leads because (usually) there is a phase no matter what. Big dogs have special ingredients. They aren't subtle. 93 tripled and became a record breaking beast but a large strong storm was already a near guaranty well in advance. Its been a long time since the last triple....maybe we're due... heh

 

[stormtracker]

GFS just continues to be farther off synch so far.   H5 look degraded a bit vs 6z so far

[DDweatherman]

Phasing looks very sloppy this run compared to some of the prior runs (thru 60). 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS just continues to be farther off synch so far.   H5 look degraded a bit vs 6z so far

Northern stream looks a bit better, southern stuff just didn't come to play

[DDweatherman]

Just now, yoda said:

Northern stream looks a bit better, southern stuff just didn't come to play

We could win on a moderate event this way if we are all setting expectations on a 3-5'er. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, yoda said:

Northern stream looks a bit better, southern stuff just didn't come to play

That's what I thought the Nam was smoking.

[stormtracker]

Ok, gotta just mainly look at SFC...gulf low is obviously still there.  Let's see what, if anything, we can get out of it

[Paleocene]

Well, whatever we do get out of the gulf is headed toward some nice cold air. Friday AM temps:

[Shad]

looks juicier at 75.....