January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Amped]

4 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said:

Just wild to me that this storm is so juicy in the GOM and then hits the apps and evaporates. 

The 500mb troff collapses, so the precip does too.

[Shad]

The NAM looks nice at the end of its run but it is the NAM

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said:

Just wild to me that this storm is so juicy in the GOM and then hits the apps and evaporates. 

 

Upper levels lose lift and instability. Moisture is still there but the mechanism to wring it out gets pulled apart from messy interaction. Think of it like 3-4 way tug of war, very confusing and nobody usually wins. 

 

Doesn't mean that's locked in though. Just how it looks now. Northern stream is notorious for mid range surprises (in all directions). Difficult to model. 

 

@psuhoffmani agree 100%. We can have epic dry periods in any season but the last 4 years or so has taught me the same thing. When precip happens, a propensity to bust on the high side seems far more common than the other way around. If it pulls north all juiced up, my gut says it translates down stream no matter....

[mitchnick]

Just now, Shad said:

The NAM looks nice at the end of its run but it is the NAM

Basically all northern stream.  New twist.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Basically all northern stream.  New twist.

Idk about that. Southern stream is ripping. To me it looks like the NS is messing it up more than assisting. But it's the Nam doing Nam things at a range it shouldn't be allowed to run lol

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Idk about that. Southern stream is ripping. To me it looks like the NS is messing it up more than assisting. But it's the Nam doing Nam things at a range it shouldn't be allowed to run lol

The main vort is northern stream. The vort in the sw sorta lost its identity. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500th&rh=2025010712&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[Thewiledcard]

Also wild to me that we are in 2025 and we still have all these different takes on weather from the models. 

[somecallmetim]

5 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said:

Also wild to me that we are in 2025 and we still have all these different takes on weather from the models. 

It's almost as if global climate interactions and the ability to decipher chaos in the system at long leads are incredibly complex. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Really need to score in every opportunity we get in January because once the 2nd week of February arrives, the large scale pattern will deteriorate for substantial MA snows based on current modeling. 

Maybe, or like 2014 once the cold takes hold its difficult to scour out even once the h5 longwave pattern retrogrades.  If you look at that year the pattern wasn't actually as good post Feb 15 but the damage was done and its difficult to scour out established cold that time of year unless the pattern becomes downright hostile which I am not sure it does...the trough pulls back but the NS is close enough and I don't see signs of a huge SER, but I know that's a traumatic thing to see even a slight SER lately!  

Analogs are also iffy for March, some years flipped back cold and we had another chance at snow late.  But I know some toss March snow because it melts LOL 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe, or like 2014 once the cold takes hold its difficult to scour out even once the h5 longwave pattern retrogrades.  If you look at that year the pattern wasn't actually as good post Feb 15 but the damage was done and its difficult to scour out established cold that time of year unless the pattern becomes downright hostile which I am not sure it does...the trough pulls back but the NS is close enough and I don't see signs of a huge SER, but I know that's a traumatic thing to see even a slight SER lately!  

Analogs are also iffy for March, some years flipped back cold and we had another chance at snow late.  But I know some toss March snow because it melts LOL 

Looked at Accuweather last night and it’s below average throughout the rest of the month with no respite. Been a while since that happened.

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Idk about that. Southern stream is ripping. To me it looks like the NS is messing it up more than assisting. But it's the Nam doing Nam things at a range it shouldn't be allowed to run lol

Speaking of southern stream...do you think that stays active like it has been so far? I always like to see the gulf doing things in the winter, and the modeling doesn't seem to have any shortage of waves coming from there. But I could be looking at it wrong too, lol

[Shad]

ICON is going to be another big hit for most of Virginia

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe, or like 2014 once the cold takes hold its difficult to scour out even once the h5 longwave pattern retrogrades.  If you look at that year the pattern wasn't actually as good post Feb 15 but the damage was done and its difficult to scour out established cold that time of year unless the pattern becomes downright hostile which I am not sure it does...the trough pulls back but the NS is close enough and I don't see signs of a huge SER, but I know that's a traumatic thing to see even a slight SER lately!  

Analogs are also iffy for March, some years flipped back cold and we had another chance at snow late.  But I know some toss March snow because it melts LOL 

You may not have seen my other post to Bob that I  do believe, after any "thaw", a return of winter end of February in early March. Could be wrong, but who cares. And modeling may change, since my thoughts are based on current modeling.  But our best pattern should be this month into early February, so that's the real reason for my hope to score soon and often now, redundantly speaking notwithstanding! Lol 

[yoda]

Looks like a 2-4 on the icon

 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Shad said:

ICON is going to be another big hit for most of Virginia

Not bad for the whole forum except for Leesburg.

[Solution Man]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Not bad for the whole forum except for Leesburg.

ICON with right idea

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Not bad for the whole forum except for Leesburg.

I think that's a way most of us can win vs relying on the coastal to climb the coast via a clean phase. A little interaction should keep the precip intact as this propagates eastward into a decent airmass. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

ICON did ok with the most recent storm? I believe it was on team euro with keeping the goods dc and south which ended up verifying? Didn’t waffle too much?

[Chris78]

Basically a 3 to 5 incher.

Where do I sign?

[87storms]

I can't say I love seeing a GL low, but I guess if it's cold, it's cold.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Not bad for the whole forum except for Leesburg.

Outside of a nuke, best case scenario is to have the southern vort as juiced as possible when it turns north. Even modest NS interaction like a frontal boundary or ribbon of vorticity can keep things cohesive enough for a very nice event. Can't have a stream duel. They need to be nice to each other in some way. ICONs version can def work and improve without a bomb 

[hstorm]

Still snowing lightly on ICON at end of run too.

[adelphi_sky]

Wow. I left yesterday evening after reading panels of 38" for DC and a beautiful bowling ball vort. This morning, we're lucky to get 5".  I love this hobby!    

[Buddy1987]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Outside of a nuke, best case scenario is to have the southern vort as juiced as possible when it turns north. Even modest NS interaction like a frontal boundary or ribbon of vorticity can keep things cohesive enough for a very nice event. Can't have a stream duel. They need to be nice to each other in some way. ICONs version can def work and improve without a bomb 

@Bob Chill what’s your way too early thinking for us in this neck of the woods? 2-4/3-6?

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Outside of a nuke, best case scenario is to have the southern vort as juiced as possible when it turns north. Even modest NS interaction like a frontal boundary or ribbon of vorticity can keep things cohesive enough for a very nice event. Can't have a stream duel. They need to be nice to each other in some way. ICONs version can def work and improve without a bomb 

Exactly what I'm hoping for. Some degree of phasing that keeps the juiced system together as it moves towards the coast. If we can get the low to about the OBX that should push decent snow over most of the sub. 

[mitchnick]

Just gotta' get that NC batch up here.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010712&fh=108&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=icon

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Just gotta' get that NC batch up here.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010712&fh=108&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=icon

Goodness. Man I'm think I'm getting the heck out of the "will it north" business I'm telling ya, lol You push bit up that hill to your doorstep and then it go tumbling back down!

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

@Bob Chill what’s your way too early thinking for us in this neck of the woods? 2-4/3-6?

Yea, it's been looking like that on the balance for like 3 days. Because things are strung out when they get here, big rates is prob unlikely. But temps below freezing and frozen ground will maximize lighter rates. Our area in general looks close to the sweet spot outside of a bomb. Even a bomb works quite well but it includes jealousy hahahaha

[hstorm]

2 minutes ago, hstorm said:

Still snowing lightly on ICON at end of run too.

Ignore this.  I was looking at 98 hours and my tired brain thought it was end of run.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like a 2-4 on the icon

 

Id take it at this point. Gonna see what 12z shows, but I’m starting to get the feeling that this or like 5” is our max upside.  it’s getting too late in the game for massive changes that we need for double digits i think. Not impossible but window closing fast.