Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,752
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Fuji Kapesta
    Newest Member
    Fuji Kapesta
    Joined

January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

mappy

By mappy,
in Mid Atlantic

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

He deserves the reddest of tags. Pete is an amazing meteorolgist and one of the primary Winter Desk forecasters at WPC. I went to school with Pete. Great guys and very knowledgeable. This is the type

stormtracker
stormtracker

FOLKS....

wxmvpete
wxmvpete

A little bit of a break down from the 12Z and 18Z guidance. The main discrepancy remains the strength/tilt of the 500mb trough, although the ridging along the West Coast feature differences too. Using

Posted Images

Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Ji said:


Meh

Travelers advisory

It's never really looked good for a bomb. Don't get me wrong, I want a nuke but it's pretty messy in the upper levels as it lifts north. No classic banana high and no consolidated shortwave. Imo, the best ingredient in place is baroclinicity (odd word lol) and not much else for things going nuclear. 

That said, it's pretty juicy in the gulf so even if decaying or disorganized on the trip north, no reason to think we can't get a sheared but juicy overrunner. The once common widespread 2-4/3-6 has been on hiatus. This setup is a very common way to get that. Time will tell as always 

  • Like 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Really need to score in every opportunity we get in January because once the 2nd week of February arrives, the large scale pattern will deteriorate for substantial MA snows based on current modeling. 

Yea I think we have until Valentine's Day week, then we flip into spring.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Really need to score in every opportunity we get in January because once the 2nd week of February arrives, the large scale pattern will deteriorate for substantial MA snows based on current modeling. 

 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea I think we have until Valentine's Day week, then we flip into spring.

If we actually get 6-7 weeks of a favorable pattern, that is a huge win. Up to chance what materializes from it.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

End of the 00z Euro and 06z GFS appear to flood the country with Barney. Wow.

The current AO dive peaked at -4 and no signs of a legit flip yet. A relax is inevitable and ens guidance is honing in on it mid  month but more importantly, what happens beyond will define a good chunk of Feb. My gut says another dive of lesser magnitude is the most likely. If that happens, front half of Feb will continue with a decent regime for winter wx. Even if/when things aren't lining up, winter will be lurking close by. 

Ens spread is wide. My money is on the big + flipper camp is wrong. Neutral waffle or elevator down is where my head is

image.thumb.png.2449296b836954cb1d9b21a78b828006.png

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The current AO dive peaked at -4 and no signs of a legit flip yet. A relax is inevitable and ens guidance is honing in on it late month but more importantly, what happens beyond will define a good chunk of Feb. My gut says another dive of lesser magnitude is the most likely. If that happens, front half of Feb will continue with a decent regime for winter wx. Even if/when things aren't lining up, winter will be lurking close by. 

Ens spread is wide. My money is on the big + flipper cam is wrong. Neutral waffle or elevator down is where my head is

image.thumb.png.2449296b836954cb1d9b21a78b828006.png

I'm thinking we get an extended winter "thaw" in February, then a last gasp of winter late February into early March. Just a wag, but that's my story and I'm stickin' with it. 

Cansips and Euro are looking like a weakish Modoki Niño. If right, that along with cooling global oceans, may turn out OK as long as the PDO cooperates too.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I'm thinking we get an extended winter "thaw" in February, then a last gasp of winter late February into early March. Just a wag, but that's my story and I'm stickin' with it. 

Cansips and Euro are looking like a weakish Modoki Niño. If right, that along with cooling global oceans, may turn out OK as long as the PDO cooperates too.

Tough call. This current 2 week period could end up being the coldest/most active period of winter but I have my doubts for now. I'm expecting a -ao reload before any extended thaw. Otoh, winters don't behave the same as they used too so climo/history doesn't work as well as it used too. Right now the current AO dive still looks more like a classic 4+ week period versus a hit and run. Nothing surprises me anymore though 

  • Like 6
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Tough call. This current 2 week period could end up being the coldest/most active period of winter but I have my doubts for now. I'm expecting a -ao reload before any extended thaw. Otoh, winters don't behave the same as they used too so climo/history doesn't work as well as it used too. Right now the current AO dive still looks more like a classic 4+ week period versus a hit and run. Nothing surprises me anymore though 

I hope not. Otherwise, it seems like it will basically be just a repeat of last winter unless this Saturday storm suddenly morphs back into a big one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

It's never really looked good for a bomb. Don't get me wrong, I want a nuke but it's pretty messy in the upper levels as it lifts north. No classic banana high and no consolidated shortwave. Imo, the best ingredient in place is baroclinicity (odd word lol) and not much else for things going nuclear. 

That said, it's pretty juicy in the gulf so even if decaying or disorganized on the trip north, no reason to think we can't get a sheared but juicy overrunner. The once common widespread 2-4/3-6 has been on hiatus. This setup is a very common way to get that. Time will tell as always 

Agree with all this but recently we’ve seen waves that rely on baroclinicity out down impressive qpf, not just around here but I’ve seen that trend.  I spend a lot of time up in Vermont and they’ve had a few crazy dumps up there in recent years where a progressive frontal wave dropped 20” without much dynamics or amplitude to the wave. Seems there is a higher bar than there used to be with these things. 
 

To be clear I’m not saying huge upside but it doesn’t seem to take much to squeeze out a decent snow of the wave takes the right track and there is a decent temp gradient. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...