pazzo83 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If it makes you feel better, NYC went from 20" to 2". worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 This is probably what the potential is with the scenario where the initial NS SW does not phase in and we need the STJ to go it mostly alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But Chuck said it was gonna rain so the huge snowstorm for the TN Valley into the Carolinas can't be right I said the Pacific pattern doesn't look anything like our snowstorm composite.. that could mean anything from the storm being more positive tilted, not happening, to rain, etc. It wasn't a good upper latitude H5. I'm going to get this one right.. we might get some light snow on the front end when -NAO is still in place, but the upper latitude pattern changes too quickly and the core is probably too warm or misses us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 This is probably what the potential is with the scenario where the initial NS SW does not phase in and we need the STJ to go it mostly aloneThis is pretty much an El Niño storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 GFS is weak sauce with the clipper at range no surprise, but wants to drop the hammer next week. PV is wobbling around the GL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I said the Pacific pattern doesn't look anything like our snowstorm composite.. that could mean anything from the storm being more positive tilted, not happening, to rain, etc. It wasn't a good upper latitude H5. I'm going to get this one right.. we might get some light snow on the front end when -NAO is still in place, but the upper latitude pattern changes too quickly and the core is probably too warm or misses us. but if the GFS is right, it'll be "suppressed" (good for me), not flip to rain, which is what you said if I recall correctly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Canada looked promising but it got shredded like the eagles defense against Jayden 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said: but if the GFS is right, it'll be "suppressed" (good for me), not flip to rain, which is what you said if I recall correctly I predict 0" from this storm in DC and Baltimore, maybe a dusting on the front end. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Sign me up 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I said the Pacific pattern doesn't look anything like our snowstorm composite.. that could mean anything from the storm being more positive tilted, not happening, to rain, etc. It wasn't a good upper latitude H5. I'm going to get this one right.. we might get some light snow on the front end when -NAO is still in place, but the upper latitude pattern changes too quickly and the core is probably too warm or misses us. That composite is skewed by a LOT of nino storms...its not as far off if you only look at cold enso non nino snowstorms. The fact we are not in a nino lowers our chances of a major snowstorm significantly, but often when we do get the fluke cold enso snowstorm they do not match the larger composite. Also, there is a huge difference IMO between the -PDO regime we've been in recently and the coming look with a full ridge bridge from the NAO all the way into the north pacific, and a trough underneith it towards Hawaii. It's not nearly as hostile and those other factors around it matter just as much. It's not our BEST snowstorm look but we've had snows in worse looks than that. Its maybe a 7/10 look imo. I don't think the HECS is likely but I think we have a legit threat at something like the ICON or tonights GFS run spit out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Canada looked promising but it got shredded like the eagles defense against Jayden wasn't that what the GFS was doing to this weekend's storm at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 17 minutes ago, andyhb said: The death knell. They really should be embarrassed. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I said the Pacific pattern doesn't look anything like our snowstorm composite.. that could mean anything from the storm being more positive tilted, not happening, to rain, etc. It wasn't a good upper latitude H5. I'm going to get this one right.. we might get some light snow on the front end when -NAO is still in place, but the upper latitude pattern changes too quickly and the core is probably too warm or misses us. Also this is kinda like having it both ways... the pattern is no good because it might be too warm and also it might be too cold and suppress. There is a HUGE range of permutations and possible results and only a very small minority falls into the box we need to get a big snowsotrm. In EVERY setup that is the least likely outcome so taking that stance would make you right just by default most of the time. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: They really should be embarrassed. you think they have shame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I'm still legit excited. The model drama is going to be incredible the next 3 days 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Also this is kinda like having it both ways... the pattern is no good because it might be too warm and also it might be too cold and suppress. There is a HUGE range of permutations and possible results and only a very small minority falls into the box we need to get a big snowsotrm. In EVERY setup that is the least likely outcome so taking that stance would make you right just by default most of the time. Even if it goes south DC will probably hit 35-36 degrees. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska flattens out the flow a bit, so it could either run inland or go out to sea, but was not good for the Miller A snowstorm it was showing before. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, stormtracker said: I'm still legit excited. The model drama is going to be incredible the next 3 days Can we please get a shut the F*CK UP CHUCK. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, psuhoffman said: you think they have shame? I mean, you would think so? I get it that hype = ratings, but this is the first time I've ever seen a legit public news source do something that outrageous. It's probably gonna become the new norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 lol, they deleted it 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Canada looked promising but it got shredded like the eagles defense against Jayden Or the Commandos run defense against EVERYONE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, stormtracker said: lol, they deleted it Either it's time to write it off or the local media finally learned it's lesson about hyping stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Even if it goes south DC will probably hit 35-36 degrees. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska flattens out the flow a bit, so it could either run inland or go out to sea, but was not good for the Miller A snowstorm it was showing before. DCA was 35F as the snow started early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: lol, they deleted it Now that the horses have all escaped the barn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm still legit excited. The model drama is going to be incredible the next 3 days 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Either it's time to write it off or the local media finally learned it's lesson about hyping stuff. Kammerer on NBC4 made some reference to it - basically saying "let's slow down folks" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: They really should be embarrassed. It was a click bait headline as the post went through all the different model simulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: DCA was 35F as the snow started early this morning. In an optimal pattern! Imagine the difference when the -NAO and +PNA de-evolves. Maybe it will be warmer than that in DC.. I think I posted yesterday about how surprisingly warm our "perfect cold" snowstorm was in the region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: In an optimal pattern! Imagine the difference when the -NAO and +PNA de-evolves. Maybe it will be warmer than that in DC.. I think I posted yesterday about how surprisingly warm our "perfect cold" snowstorm was in the region. yeah - obviously it's warmer. 25 years ago DC is probably in the teens / low 20s during this. But we can still snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Even if it goes south DC will probably hit 35-36 degrees. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska flattens out the flow a bit, so it could either run inland or go out to sea, but was not good for the Miller A it was showing before. Here is an example of a close cold enso pattern match, the MECS from 2006 48 hours before 48 hours before our current threat The biggest problem here is the NS wave is not timed up with the STJ, its getting out ahead of it. If that was fixed this has the same potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Here is an example of a close cold enso pattern match, the MECS from 2006 48 hours before 48 hours before our current threat The biggest problem here is the NS wave is not timed up with the STJ, its getting out ahead of it. If that was fixed this has the same potential. I've said this before though - It's ok that the South, like Texas, Oklahoma etc get a snowstorm out of this. The pattern changes quickly from the -48hrs to the time of the storm. We have no high pressure to the north.. By the time the coastal makes it off of Ocean City, we will be above freezing. That High pressure organizing in the Gulf of Alaska is the reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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